基于深部位移的蠕滑型滑坡预警指标及预警预报研究
|
摘要
将动能、动能变化率用作为基于深部位移的滑坡预警指标,依托大量滑坡的深部位移监测数据,分析滑坡演化过程中累积位移–深度曲线、不同深度处位移速率、动能、动能变化率的变化特征和规律,构建滑坡不同演化变形阶段的辨识方法。研究结果表明:滑动面以上不同深度处的位移速率数值虽不同,但随时间的变化规律基本一致;滑坡由匀速变形阶段进入加速变形阶段过程中,动能变化率由零增加为较大的正值;临滑变形阶段,动能、动能变化率骤然剧增的特征更加显著;所建立的动能和动能变化率预警指标能够精细地识别出滑坡所处的变形阶段,减小因降雨、人工活动等外界因素常导致的误判率;通过基于深部位移的预警指标变化特征可以更好地识别出蠕滑型滑坡的变形阶段。
Kinetic energy and its variation rate were used as early-warning indictors based on deep displacements.On the basis of deep displacement data obtained from a large number of landslides,the characteristics and variation laws of accumulated displacement vs. depth curves,displacement rates at different depths,kinetic energy and its variation rate were analyzed in the processes of landslide evolution,the methods applied to distinguish the different deformation stages were established. The results demonstrate that the values of the displacement rate above sliding surface are different,but the variation laws with time are consistent on the whole. During the processes of landslides enter into accelerative deformation stage from constant deformation stage,the variation rate of kinetic energy increases from zero to a larger positive value. The kinetic energy and its variation rate increase sharply and show significantly catastrophic characteristics at the stage of critical sliding. The early-warning indictors of kinetic energy and its variation rate established in this paper are able to distinguish the deformation stages of landslides finely and decrease misjudgement rate caused by external factors frequently such as rainfall,artificial activities etc. The characteristics of early-warning indictors based on deep displacements can be used to distinguish different deformation stages of creep landslides better.
Kinetic energy and its variation rate were used as early-warning indictors based on deep displacements.On the basis of deep displacement data obtained from a large number of landslides,the characteristics and variation laws of accumulated displacement vs. depth curves,displacement rates at different depths,kinetic energy and its variation rate were analyzed in the processes of landslide evolution,the methods applied to distinguish the different deformation stages were established. The results demonstrate that the values of the displacement rate above sliding surface are different,but the variation laws with time are consistent on the whole. During the processes of landslides enter into accelerative deformation stage from constant deformation stage,the variation rate of kinetic energy increases from zero to a larger positive value. The kinetic energy and its variation rate increase sharply and show significantly catastrophic characteristics at the stage of critical sliding. The early-warning indictors of kinetic energy and its variation rate established in this paper are able to distinguish the deformation stages of landslides finely and decrease misjudgement rate caused by external factors frequently such as rainfall,artificial activities etc. The characteristics of early-warning indictors based on deep displacements can be used to distinguish different deformation stages of creep landslides better.
引文
[1]黄润秋.20世纪以来中国的大型滑坡及其发生机制[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(3):433-454.(HUANG Runqiu.Large-scale landslides and their sliding mechanisms in China since 20th century[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(3):433-454.(in Chinese))
[2]许强.滑坡的变形破坏行为与内在机理[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(2):145-151.(XU Qiang.Theoretical studies on prediction of landslides using slope deformation process data[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2012,20(2):145-151.(in Chinese))
[3]贺可强,郭栋,张朋,等.降雨型滑坡垂直方向率及其位移监测预警判据研究[J].岩土力学,2017,38(12):3 649-3 659.(HEKeqiang,GUO Dong,ZHANG Peng,et al.The direction ratio of vertical displacement for rainfall-induced landslides and its early warning criterion[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(12):3 649-3 659.(in Chinese))
[4]董秀军,许强,唐川,等.滑坡位移-时间曲线特征的物理模拟试验研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(3):401-407.(DONGXiujun,XU Qiang,TANG Chuan,et al.Characteristics of landslide displacement-time curve by physical simulation experiment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):401-407.(in Chinese))
[5]许强,汤明高,徐开祥,等.滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.(XU Qiang,TANG Minggao,XU Kaixiang,et al.Research on space-time evolution laws and early warning-prediction of landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.(in Chinese))
[6]CROSTA G B,AGLIARDI F.How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2002,27(36):1 557-1 565.
[7]SATIO M.Forecasting time of slope failure by tertiary creep[C]//Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering.Mexico:Sociedad Mexicana de Mecanicade Suelos,A.C.,1969:677-683.
[8]李聪,朱杰兵,汪斌,等.滑坡不同变形阶段演化规律与变形速率预警判据研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2016,35(7):1 407-1 414.(LI Cong,ZHU Jiebing,WANG Bin,et al.Critical deformation velocity of landslides in different deformation phases[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2016,35(7):1 407-1 414.(in Chinese))
[9]ROSE N D,HUNGR Q.Forecasting potential rock slope failure in open pit mines using the inverse-velocity method[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,2007,44(2):308-320.
[10]XU Q,YUAN Y,ZENG Y P,et al.Some new pre-warning criteria for creep slope failure[J].Science China Technology Sciences,2011,54(Supp.1):210-220.
[11]许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1 099-1 106.(XUQiang,ZENG Yuping.Research on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early-warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1 099-1 106.(in Chinese))
[12]徐峻龄,廖小平,李荷生.黄茨大型滑坡的预报及其理论和方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1996,7(3):18-25.(XU Junling,LIAOXiaoping,LI Hesheng.Prediction for Huangci landslide and its theory and method[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,1996,7(3):18-25.(in Chinese))
[13]何满潮.滑坡地质灾害远程监测预报系统及其工程应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1 081-1 090.(HE Manchao.Real-time remote monitoring and forecasting system for geological disasters of landslides and its engineering application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1 081-1 090.(in Chinese))
[14]王义锋.基于测斜仪监测成果的蠕滑体变形机制分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):212-216.(WANG Yifeng.Analysis of creep deformation mechanism based on inclinometer monitoring results[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(1):212-216.(in Chinese))
[15]孙志彬,杨小礼.基于深部位移的边坡特征分析[J].长沙理工大学学报:自然科学版,2010,7(2):43-47.(SUN Zhibin,YANG Xiaoli.Sliding characteristics analysis of landslide based on the deep displacement[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2010,7(2):43-47.(in Chinese))
[16]靳晓光,王兰生,李晓红.滑坡滑动面位置的确定及超前预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2001,12(1):10-12.(JIN Xiaoguang,WANG Lansheng,LI Xiaohong.Determination and advanced forecasting on slide plane position for landslide[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2001,12(1):10-12.(in Chinese))
[17]黄祥谈,廖小平,程建军.基于动态深部位移监测的高速公路路堑边坡稳定状态评估[J].公路交通科技:应用技术版,2010,(6):82-88.(HUANG Xiangtan,LIAO Xiaoping,CHENG Jianjun.The stability evolution of highway cut slope based on deep dynamic deep displacement[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation on Research and Development:Application and Technique,2010,(6):82-88.(in Chinese))
[18]程建军.路堑边坡变形监测与稳定性安全评估方法[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2016:1-66.(CHENG Jianjun.Deformation characteristics and process and evaluation methods of safety monitoring for cut slopes[M].Beijing:China Communication Press,2016:1-66.(in Chinese))
[19]范宣梅,许强,黄润秋,等.丹巴县城后山滑坡锚固动态优化设计和信息化施工[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(增2):4 139-4 146.(FAN Xuanmei,XU Qiang,HUANG Runqiu,et al.Dynamical optimal anchoring design and information construction of Danba landslide[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(Supp.2):4 139-4 146.(in Chinese))
[20]DASENBROCK D.Automated landslide instrumentation programs on US Route 2 in Crookston,MN[C]//LABUZ J F,NUTZMANN ed.,Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Minnesota Geotechnical Society.Minnesota:[s.n.],2010:165-185.
[21]DASENBROCK D,LEVESQUE C L,DANISCH L.Long-term rate behavior monitoring using automated MEMS-based sensing arrays in an urban landslide environment[C]//Proceedings of the 11th International Symposium on Landslides(ISL)and the 2nd North American Symposium on Landslides.Alberta,Canada:CRC Press,2012:1 393-1 398.
[22]陈贺,李亚军,房锐,等.滑坡深部位移监测新技术及预警预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(增2):4 063-4 070.(CHEN He,LI Yajun,FANG Rui,et al.A novel technique for monitoring deep displacement and early-warning of landslide[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2015,34(Supp.2):4 063-4 070.(in Chinese))
[23]郑颖人,陈祖煜,王恭先,等.边坡与滑坡工程治理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2007:1-771.(ZHENG Yingren,CHEN Zuyu,WANG Gongxian,et al.Engineering treatment of slope and landslide[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2007:1-771.(in Chinese))
[24]徐邦栋.滑坡分析与防治[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2001:1-774.(XU Bangdong.Analysis and treatment of landslide[M].Beijing:China Railway Publishing House,2001:1-774.(in Chinese))
[25]殷坤龙,姜清辉,汪洋.新滩滑坡运动全过程的非连续变形分析与仿真模拟[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(7):959-962.(YINKunlong,JIANG Qinghui,WANG Yang.Numerical simulation on the movement processes of Xintan landslide by DDA method[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(7):959-962.(in Chinese))
[26]王思敬,王效宁.大型高速滑坡的能量分析及其灾害预测[C]//孙宇科,王成华,刘光代,等,编.一九七八年全国滑坡学术研讨会.成都:四川科技出版社,1989:117-124.(WANG Sijing,WANGXiaoning.Energy analysis and disaster prediction of large-scale landslides[C]//SUN Yuke,WANG Chenghua,LIU Guangdai,et al,ed.National Landslide Symposium in 1978.Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technology Press,1989:117-124.(in Chinese))
[2]许强.滑坡的变形破坏行为与内在机理[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(2):145-151.(XU Qiang.Theoretical studies on prediction of landslides using slope deformation process data[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2012,20(2):145-151.(in Chinese))
[3]贺可强,郭栋,张朋,等.降雨型滑坡垂直方向率及其位移监测预警判据研究[J].岩土力学,2017,38(12):3 649-3 659.(HEKeqiang,GUO Dong,ZHANG Peng,et al.The direction ratio of vertical displacement for rainfall-induced landslides and its early warning criterion[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2017,38(12):3 649-3 659.(in Chinese))
[4]董秀军,许强,唐川,等.滑坡位移-时间曲线特征的物理模拟试验研究[J].工程地质学报,2015,23(3):401-407.(DONGXiujun,XU Qiang,TANG Chuan,et al.Characteristics of landslide displacement-time curve by physical simulation experiment[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2015,23(3):401-407.(in Chinese))
[5]许强,汤明高,徐开祥,等.滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.(XU Qiang,TANG Minggao,XU Kaixiang,et al.Research on space-time evolution laws and early warning-prediction of landslides[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(6):1 104-1 112.(in Chinese))
[6]CROSTA G B,AGLIARDI F.How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2002,27(36):1 557-1 565.
[7]SATIO M.Forecasting time of slope failure by tertiary creep[C]//Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering.Mexico:Sociedad Mexicana de Mecanicade Suelos,A.C.,1969:677-683.
[8]李聪,朱杰兵,汪斌,等.滑坡不同变形阶段演化规律与变形速率预警判据研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2016,35(7):1 407-1 414.(LI Cong,ZHU Jiebing,WANG Bin,et al.Critical deformation velocity of landslides in different deformation phases[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2016,35(7):1 407-1 414.(in Chinese))
[9]ROSE N D,HUNGR Q.Forecasting potential rock slope failure in open pit mines using the inverse-velocity method[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences,2007,44(2):308-320.
[10]XU Q,YUAN Y,ZENG Y P,et al.Some new pre-warning criteria for creep slope failure[J].Science China Technology Sciences,2011,54(Supp.1):210-220.
[11]许强,曾裕平.具有蠕变特点滑坡的加速度变化特征及临滑预警指标研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1 099-1 106.(XUQiang,ZENG Yuping.Research on acceleration variation characteristics of creep landslide and early-warning prediction indicator of critical sliding[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1 099-1 106.(in Chinese))
[12]徐峻龄,廖小平,李荷生.黄茨大型滑坡的预报及其理论和方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1996,7(3):18-25.(XU Junling,LIAOXiaoping,LI Hesheng.Prediction for Huangci landslide and its theory and method[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,1996,7(3):18-25.(in Chinese))
[13]何满潮.滑坡地质灾害远程监测预报系统及其工程应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(6):1 081-1 090.(HE Manchao.Real-time remote monitoring and forecasting system for geological disasters of landslides and its engineering application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(6):1 081-1 090.(in Chinese))
[14]王义锋.基于测斜仪监测成果的蠕滑体变形机制分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(1):212-216.(WANG Yifeng.Analysis of creep deformation mechanism based on inclinometer monitoring results[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2009,28(1):212-216.(in Chinese))
[15]孙志彬,杨小礼.基于深部位移的边坡特征分析[J].长沙理工大学学报:自然科学版,2010,7(2):43-47.(SUN Zhibin,YANG Xiaoli.Sliding characteristics analysis of landslide based on the deep displacement[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science,2010,7(2):43-47.(in Chinese))
[16]靳晓光,王兰生,李晓红.滑坡滑动面位置的确定及超前预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2001,12(1):10-12.(JIN Xiaoguang,WANG Lansheng,LI Xiaohong.Determination and advanced forecasting on slide plane position for landslide[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2001,12(1):10-12.(in Chinese))
[17]黄祥谈,廖小平,程建军.基于动态深部位移监测的高速公路路堑边坡稳定状态评估[J].公路交通科技:应用技术版,2010,(6):82-88.(HUANG Xiangtan,LIAO Xiaoping,CHENG Jianjun.The stability evolution of highway cut slope based on deep dynamic deep displacement[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation on Research and Development:Application and Technique,2010,(6):82-88.(in Chinese))
[18]程建军.路堑边坡变形监测与稳定性安全评估方法[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2016:1-66.(CHENG Jianjun.Deformation characteristics and process and evaluation methods of safety monitoring for cut slopes[M].Beijing:China Communication Press,2016:1-66.(in Chinese))
[19]范宣梅,许强,黄润秋,等.丹巴县城后山滑坡锚固动态优化设计和信息化施工[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(增2):4 139-4 146.(FAN Xuanmei,XU Qiang,HUANG Runqiu,et al.Dynamical optimal anchoring design and information construction of Danba landslide[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(Supp.2):4 139-4 146.(in Chinese))
[20]DASENBROCK D.Automated landslide instrumentation programs on US Route 2 in Crookston,MN[C]//LABUZ J F,NUTZMANN ed.,Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Minnesota Geotechnical Society.Minnesota:[s.n.],2010:165-185.
[21]DASENBROCK D,LEVESQUE C L,DANISCH L.Long-term rate behavior monitoring using automated MEMS-based sensing arrays in an urban landslide environment[C]//Proceedings of the 11th International Symposium on Landslides(ISL)and the 2nd North American Symposium on Landslides.Alberta,Canada:CRC Press,2012:1 393-1 398.
[22]陈贺,李亚军,房锐,等.滑坡深部位移监测新技术及预警预报研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(增2):4 063-4 070.(CHEN He,LI Yajun,FANG Rui,et al.A novel technique for monitoring deep displacement and early-warning of landslide[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2015,34(Supp.2):4 063-4 070.(in Chinese))
[23]郑颖人,陈祖煜,王恭先,等.边坡与滑坡工程治理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2007:1-771.(ZHENG Yingren,CHEN Zuyu,WANG Gongxian,et al.Engineering treatment of slope and landslide[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2007:1-771.(in Chinese))
[24]徐邦栋.滑坡分析与防治[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2001:1-774.(XU Bangdong.Analysis and treatment of landslide[M].Beijing:China Railway Publishing House,2001:1-774.(in Chinese))
[25]殷坤龙,姜清辉,汪洋.新滩滑坡运动全过程的非连续变形分析与仿真模拟[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(7):959-962.(YINKunlong,JIANG Qinghui,WANG Yang.Numerical simulation on the movement processes of Xintan landslide by DDA method[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(7):959-962.(in Chinese))
[26]王思敬,王效宁.大型高速滑坡的能量分析及其灾害预测[C]//孙宇科,王成华,刘光代,等,编.一九七八年全国滑坡学术研讨会.成都:四川科技出版社,1989:117-124.(WANG Sijing,WANGXiaoning.Energy analysis and disaster prediction of large-scale landslides[C]//SUN Yuke,WANG Chenghua,LIU Guangdai,et al,ed.National Landslide Symposium in 1978.Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technology Press,1989:117-124.(in Chinese))