基于集对分析-可变模糊集耦合方法的溃坝环境影响评价
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摘要
针对溃坝环境影响研究内容存在复杂性和不确定性的问题,综合考虑植被覆盖、河道形态、生物多样性、人居景观环境、污染工业、水环境、土壤环境等溃坝环境影响因素,构建并细化了溃坝环境影响评价指标体系和评价等级标准.以集对分析理论核心概念"联系度"和可变模糊集理论核心概念"差异度"在本质上相同为纽带,将改进细化的集对分析联系度函数与可变模糊集理论相结合,用联系度的概念来简化差异度的计算公式,将得到的特征函数代替可变模糊集中的相对差异度函数.建立溃坝环境影响的集对分析-可变模糊集耦合评价模型,实现了集对分析理论与可变模糊集理论的优势互补.将溃坝环境影响的集对分析-可变模糊集耦合评价模型应用于沙河集水库大坝,结果表明:本文模型的评价结果客观合理,更加全面地反映了溃坝环境影响系统的非线性和可变模糊性,符合溃坝环境影响系统的模糊不确定性特点,同时简化了可变模糊差异度的构建过程,提高了评价效率,为溃坝环境影响评价提供了一种科学的方法.
In this study,considering the complexity and uncertainty of dam breach environmental impacts,an evaluation index system and standard of division are constructed considering vegetation cover, channel morphology,biodiversity,human ecological environment,industrial pollution,water environment,and soil environment as the main factors. Considering the concepts of connection degree and difference degree in set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory,respectively,a new coupling evaluation model is established based on the improved set pair connection degree and variable fuzzy set theory to overcome the inaccuracy defect when variable fuzzy model is used to deal with qualitative index. The coupling model realizes the complementary advantages of set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory. The model was applied to the Shaheji reservoir dam. Compared to previous studies,the coupling model is reasonable and more objective and it more comprehensively reflects the nonlinearity and variable fuzziness of the dam breach environmental impact system. Moreover,the variable ambiguity is in line with the fuzzy uncertainty characteristics of the dam breach environmental impact system;this simplifies the construction process of variable fuzzy difference degree and improves the evaluation efficiency. Therefore,the established model provides a new method for environmental impact assessment of dam breach.
In this study,considering the complexity and uncertainty of dam breach environmental impacts,an evaluation index system and standard of division are constructed considering vegetation cover, channel morphology,biodiversity,human ecological environment,industrial pollution,water environment,and soil environment as the main factors. Considering the concepts of connection degree and difference degree in set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory,respectively,a new coupling evaluation model is established based on the improved set pair connection degree and variable fuzzy set theory to overcome the inaccuracy defect when variable fuzzy model is used to deal with qualitative index. The coupling model realizes the complementary advantages of set pair analysis theory and variable fuzzy set theory. The model was applied to the Shaheji reservoir dam. Compared to previous studies,the coupling model is reasonable and more objective and it more comprehensively reflects the nonlinearity and variable fuzziness of the dam breach environmental impact system. Moreover,the variable ambiguity is in line with the fuzzy uncertainty characteristics of the dam breach environmental impact system;this simplifies the construction process of variable fuzzy difference degree and improves the evaluation efficiency. Therefore,the established model provides a new method for environmental impact assessment of dam breach.
引文
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[16]Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M,et al.Variable sets method for urban flood vulnerability assessment[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2013,56(12):3129-3136.
[17]Zou Qiang,Zhou Jianzhong,Zhou Chao,et al.Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2013,27(2):525-546.
[18]魏明华,郑志宏,黄强,等.基于改进SPA法的地下水环境模糊综合评判[J].水利学报,2009,40(10):1204-1209.Wei Minghua,Zheng Zhihong,Huang Qiang,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of groundwater environment based on improved set pair analysis[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(10):1204-1209(in Chinese).
[19]Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M.Variable sets principle and method for flood classification[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2013,56(9):2343-2348.
[20]Kumar K,Garg H.TOPSIS method based on the connection number of set pair analysis under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set environment[J].Comp Appl Math,2016(1):1-11.
[21]Yue Wencong,Cai Yanpeng,Rong Qiangqiang,et al.A hybrid life-cycle and fuzzy-set-pair analyses approach for comprehensively evaluating impacts of industrial wastewater under uncertainty[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2014,80:57-68.
[2]李宗坤,葛巍,王娟,等.中国大坝安全管理与风险管理的战略思考[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):589-595.Li Zongkun,Ge Wei,Wang Juan,et al.Strategic consideration of dam safety management and risk management in China[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(4):589-595(in Chinese).
[3]程莉,周晶.基于模糊数学理论的溃坝环境影响分析[J].价值工程,2013(15):290-292.Cheng Li,Zhou Jing.Environmental impact analysis of dam failure based on fuzzy mathematical theory[J].Value Engineering,2013(15):290-292(in Chinese).
[4]王仁钟,李雷,盛金保.水库大坝的社会与环境风险标准研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006,6(1):8-11.Wang Renzhong,Li Lei,Sheng Jinbao.On criterion of social and environment risk of reservoir dams[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2006,6(1):8-11(in Chinese).
[5]何晓燕,孙丹丹,黄金池.大坝溃决社会及环境影响评价[J].岩土工程学报,2008,30(11):1752-1757.He Xiaoyan,Sun Dandan,Huang Jinchi.Assessment on social and environment impacts of dam break[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008,30(11):1752-1757(in Chinese).
[6]Seker D Z,Kabdasli S,Rudvan B.Risk assessment of a dam-break using GIS technology[J].Water Science&Technology,2003,48(10):89-95.
[7]Lindell M K,Prater C S.Assessing community impacts of natural disasters[J].Natural Hazards Review,2013,4(4):176-185.
[8]赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M].杭州:浙江科学技术出版社,2000.Zhao Keqin.Set Pair Analysis and Its Preliminary Application[M].Hangzhou:Zhejiang Science and Technology Press,2000(in Chinese).
[9]Wang Wensheng,Jin Juliang,Ding Jin,et al.A new approach to water resources system assessment:Set pair analysis method[J].Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci,2009,52(10):3017-3023.
[10]Wu F F,Wang X.Eutrophication evaluation based on set pair analysis of Baiyangdian lake,North China[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13(3):1030-1036.
[11]孟宪萌,胡和平.基于熵权的集对分析模型在水质综合评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2009,40(3):257-262.Meng Xianmeng,Hu Heping.Application of set pair analysis model based on entropy weight to comprehensive evaluation of water quality[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(3):257-262(in Chinese).
[12]Liu Y.Study on environment evaluation and protection based on set pair analysis--A case study of chongqing[J].Energy Procedia,2012,14(14):14-19.
[13]钟登华,杨士瑞,张琴娅,等.基于改进集对分析方法的高心墙堆石坝填筑工期仿真及风险评价[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(3):137-144.Zhong Denghua,Yang Shirui,Zhang Qinya,et al.Filling construction period simulation and risk assessment of high core rock-fill dam based on improved set pair analysis method[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(3):137-144(in Chinese).
[14]Yang Fengguang,Liang Yue,Vijau P S,et al.Debris flow hazard assessment using set pair analysis models:Take beichuan county as an example[J].J Mt Sci,2014,11(4):1015-1022.
[15]陈守煜.可变模糊集理论与模型及其应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,2009.Chen Shouyu.Variable Fuzzy Sets Theory and Model and Its Application[M].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,2009(in Chinese).
[16]Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M,et al.Variable sets method for urban flood vulnerability assessment[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2013,56(12):3129-3136.
[17]Zou Qiang,Zhou Jianzhong,Zhou Chao,et al.Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2013,27(2):525-546.
[18]魏明华,郑志宏,黄强,等.基于改进SPA法的地下水环境模糊综合评判[J].水利学报,2009,40(10):1204-1209.Wei Minghua,Zheng Zhihong,Huang Qiang,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of groundwater environment based on improved set pair analysis[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2009,40(10):1204-1209(in Chinese).
[19]Chen S Y,Xue Z C,Li M.Variable sets principle and method for flood classification[J].Science China Technological Sciences,2013,56(9):2343-2348.
[20]Kumar K,Garg H.TOPSIS method based on the connection number of set pair analysis under interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set environment[J].Comp Appl Math,2016(1):1-11.
[21]Yue Wencong,Cai Yanpeng,Rong Qiangqiang,et al.A hybrid life-cycle and fuzzy-set-pair analyses approach for comprehensively evaluating impacts of industrial wastewater under uncertainty[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2014,80:57-68.