基于CMAQ源同化反演方法的京津冀局地污染源动态变化特征模拟研究
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摘要
利用"Nudging"源同化技术反演了京津冀地区2014年1、3、7、11月SO_2、NO_x的局地动态污染源,并分析其排放源强、特征及地理分布,对比其与初始源的差异,同时检验了反演源的模拟效果.结果表明,SO_2、NO_x污染源存在明显的季节变化,冬季或采暖期排放强度最大.由唐山、北京、天津、廊坊、保定、石家庄、邢台、邯郸构成东北-西南走向的带状污染物高排放区,最高排放中心主要集中在太行山、燕山山前区域,且排放具有典型的"城市化"特征,即各个城市市区及附近强度最大,周边郊县稍弱.与初始源模拟结果相比,采用反演源更能反映出污染物的时空变化特征,模拟值与实测值较接近,而且对于重污染过程亦具有较好的模拟效果.
The pollutant source assimilation of nudging inversion method was applied to simulate the local sources of SO2 and NOxin Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during January,March,July and November 2014. The strengths,patterns,and geographical distribution of SO2 and NOxsources were compared with the original sources and the performance of inversed-source-based modeling was evaluated. The results showed that the sources of SO2 and NOxpresent obvious seasonal variations and is the strongest in winter or heating period. A high pollutant emission zone in the direction of northeast-southwest wasdiscovered along Tangshan,Beijing,Tianjin,Langfang,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Xingtai and Handan in the front of the Taihang and Yan mountains. The pollutant emissions exhibit a typical"urbanization"effect,i.e. SO2 and NOxsources are high in the urban area and its surroundings and weak in the rural area. Compared with the initial-emission-based modeling,the inversed-emission-based simulation could better capture the spatial-temporal variations of air pollutants,especially during high pollution periods.
The pollutant source assimilation of nudging inversion method was applied to simulate the local sources of SO2 and NOxin Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during January,March,July and November 2014. The strengths,patterns,and geographical distribution of SO2 and NOxsources were compared with the original sources and the performance of inversed-source-based modeling was evaluated. The results showed that the sources of SO2 and NOxpresent obvious seasonal variations and is the strongest in winter or heating period. A high pollutant emission zone in the direction of northeast-southwest wasdiscovered along Tangshan,Beijing,Tianjin,Langfang,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Xingtai and Handan in the front of the Taihang and Yan mountains. The pollutant emissions exhibit a typical"urbanization"effect,i.e. SO2 and NOxsources are high in the urban area and its surroundings and weak in the rural area. Compared with the initial-emission-based modeling,the inversed-emission-based simulation could better capture the spatial-temporal variations of air pollutants,especially during high pollution periods.
引文
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徐祥德,周秀骥,翁永辉,等.2003.星载MODIS资料与地面光度计探测气溶胶变分场[J].科学通报,48(15):1680-1685
杨文夷,李杰,朱莉莉,等.2013.我国空气污染物人为源排放清单对比[J].环境科学研究,26(7):703-711
杨一帆,张凯山.2013.突发型大气污染源位置识别反演问题的数值模拟[J].环境科学学报,33(9):2388-2394
张小玲,唐宜西,熊亚军,等.2014.华北平原一次严重区域雾霾天气分析与数值预报试验[J].中国科学院大学学报,31(3):337-344
赵普生,徐晓峰,孟伟,等.2012.京津冀区域霾天气特征[J].中国环境科学,32(1):31-36
中国环境保护部.2012.HJ 633-2012环境空气质量指数(AQI)技术规定(试行)[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社
朱江,汪萍.2006.集合卡尔曼平滑和集合卡尔曼滤波在污染源反演中的应用[J].大气科学,30(5):871-882
蔡旭晖,邵敏,苏芳.2002.甲烷排放源逆向轨迹反演模式研究[J].环境科学,23(5):19-24
陈军明,徐大海,朱蓉.2002.遗传算法在点源扩散浓度反演排放源强中的应用[J].气象,28(9):12-16
程兴宏,徐祥德,安兴琴,等.2016.2013年1月华北地区重霾污染过程SO2和NOx的CMAQ源同化模拟研究[J].环境科学学报,3(2):638-648
Cheng X H,Xu X D,Ding G A.2010.An emission source inversion mode based on satellite data and its application in air quality forecast[J].Science China Earth Sciences,53(5):752-762
Dennis R L,Byun D W,Novak J H,et al.1996.The next generation o integrated air quality modeling:EPA's models-3[J].Atmospheri Environment,30(12):1925-1938
Elbern H,Schmidt H,Talagrand O,et al.2000.4D-variational dat assimilation with an adjoint air quality model for emission analysi[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,15(6):539-548
Jiang Z,Jones D B A,Kopacz M,et al.2011.Quantifying the impact o model errors on top-down estimates of carbon monoxide emission using satellite observations[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,116(D15):1158-1162
Kopacz M,Jacob D J,Henze D K,et al.2009.Comparison of adjoint and analytical Bayesian inversion methods for constraining Asian source of carbon monoxide using satellite(Mopitt)measurements of COcolumns[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,114(D4):83-84
李灿,许黎,邵敏,等.2003.一种大气CO2源汇反演模式方法的建立及应用[J].中国环境科学,23(6):610-613
刘峰,胡非,朱江.2005.用伴随方法求解多个工业污染源优化布局问题[J].中国科学:D辑,35(1):64-71
刘燚.2010.京津冀地区空气质量状况及其与气象条件的关系[D].长沙:湖南师范大学
Ma J,Aardenne J A V.2004.Impact of different emission inventories on simulated tropospheric ozone over China:a regional chemica transport model evaluation[J].Atmospheric Chemistry&Physics,4(6):877-887
Martin R V,Jacob D J,Chance K,et al.2003.Global inventory of nitrogen oxide emissions constrained by space-based observations of NO2columns[C].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,108(D17):1-5
孟凯,张迎新,姚洁,等.2015.石家庄地区重力波引发局地暴雨的预报方法初探[J].干旱气象,33(1):144-148
Miyazaki K,Eskes H J,Sudo K.2011.Global NOxemission estimate derived from an assimilation of OMI tropospheric NO2columns[J]Atmospheric Chemistry&Physics,11(5):2263-2288
清华大学.2015.MEIC[OL].2015-11-15.http://www.meicmodel.org.
Russell A,Dennis R.2000.NARSTO critical review of photochemical models and modeling[J].Atmospheric Environment,34(12):2283-2324
唐孝炎,张远航,邵敏.2006.大气环境化学[M].北京:高等教育出版社.447-449
The University of North Carolina.2014.SMOKE v3.6 user's manual[R].Chapel Hill:The institute for the Environment.1-520
王丽荣,刘黎平,王立荣,等.2013.太行山东麓地面辐合线特征分析[J].气象,39(11):1445-1451
魏凤英.1999.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社.35-37
Xu X,Xie L,Cheng X,et al.2008.Application of an adaptive nudging scheme in air quality forecasting in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorologyand Climatology,47(8):2105-2114
徐祥德,王寅钧,赵天良,等.2015.中国大地形东侧霾空间分布“避风港”效应及其“气候调节”影响下的年代际变异[J].科学通报,60(12):1132-1143
徐祥德,周秀骥,翁永辉,等.2003.星载MODIS资料与地面光度计探测气溶胶变分场[J].科学通报,48(15):1680-1685
杨文夷,李杰,朱莉莉,等.2013.我国空气污染物人为源排放清单对比[J].环境科学研究,26(7):703-711
杨一帆,张凯山.2013.突发型大气污染源位置识别反演问题的数值模拟[J].环境科学学报,33(9):2388-2394
张小玲,唐宜西,熊亚军,等.2014.华北平原一次严重区域雾霾天气分析与数值预报试验[J].中国科学院大学学报,31(3):337-344
赵普生,徐晓峰,孟伟,等.2012.京津冀区域霾天气特征[J].中国环境科学,32(1):31-36
中国环境保护部.2012.HJ 633-2012环境空气质量指数(AQI)技术规定(试行)[S].北京:中国环境科学出版社
朱江,汪萍.2006.集合卡尔曼平滑和集合卡尔曼滤波在污染源反演中的应用[J].大气科学,30(5):871-882