近十年的欧美经贸关系以及TTIP谈判的背景和难点
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摘要
2013年欧盟与美国启动《欧盟与美国双边自由贸易和投资协议》(TTIP)谈判。从TTIP谈判的背景、难点以及近10年欧美经贸关系看,该谈判的提出有其政治、经济、对外战略方面的考量。谈判的难点主要体现在投资者与国家间争端解决机制、数据跨境流动和隐私保护、食品与医疗、数据交易标准、行业监管合作、服务市场开放、政府采购等方面。虽然党派之争中止了谈判,但重开谈判完全可能,因为TTIP对双边的好处一目了然:减免双方关税,降低或消除非关税壁垒,推动跨大西洋的区域分工,将扩大美欧之间的贸易和投资规模,促进经济增长;知识产权保护方面的高标准、新兴产业规则的制定、国有企业全球标准、产业技术与安全标准的统一,将影响美欧与其他贸易伙伴的协议签订并影响到WTO原有的规则;跨大西洋自由贸易区的建立将巩固美国与欧盟的战略伙伴关系。该协定对中国的影响不可忽视:协定一旦达成、实施不仅将对中国产生一定的贸易转移效应,而且也将削弱中国在国际新规则和标准制定中的参与权、话语权和影响力,一些规则将可能遏制中国经济发展的势头,阻碍中国梦的实现。面对挑战,中国已经采取积极的应对措施。除此外,中国还应注重国内经济建设和社会的稳定。
The EU-US bilateral free trade and investment agreement(TTIP), launched in 2013, was stranded in 2017. This author analyzes the background and difficulties of TTIP negotiations and the economic and trade relations between Europe and the United States in the past 10 years. It is pointed out that the proposed negotiation has its political, economic and external strategic considerations. This paper argues that the difficulty of negotiation lies in the dispute settlement mechanism between investors and the state,data cross-boundary flow and privacy protection, medical and food and data transaction standards, industry regulatory cooperation, service market liberalization and government procurement, etc. This paper argues that although partisan disputes have stopped the negotiation, it is entirely possible to resume negotiations, because the benefits of TTIP to both sides are clear at a glance. The agreement would expand trade and investment between the United States and Europe and promote economic growth by reducing or eliminating tariffs, reducing or eliminating non-tariff barriers and promoting transatlantic regional division of labor. The high standards of intellectual property protection, the formulation of new industrial rules, the unification of global standards for state-owned enterprises, industrial technology and safety standards would affect the signing of agreements between the US-EU and other trading partners and the original rules of the WTO. The establishment of a trans-Atlantic free trade zone would consolidate the strategic partnership between the United States and the European Union. The impact of the agreement on China should not be ignored. If the agreement were reached and implemented, it would not only have a certain trade transfer effect on China, but also weaken China's participation, voice and influence in the formulation of new international rules and standards. Some rules would curb the momentum of China's economic development and impede the realization of the Chinese dream. Faced with these challenges, China has taken positive measures. This paper holds that attention should also be paid to domestic economic construction and social stability. Some suggestions are put forward in this paper.
The EU-US bilateral free trade and investment agreement(TTIP), launched in 2013, was stranded in 2017. This author analyzes the background and difficulties of TTIP negotiations and the economic and trade relations between Europe and the United States in the past 10 years. It is pointed out that the proposed negotiation has its political, economic and external strategic considerations. This paper argues that the difficulty of negotiation lies in the dispute settlement mechanism between investors and the state,data cross-boundary flow and privacy protection, medical and food and data transaction standards, industry regulatory cooperation, service market liberalization and government procurement, etc. This paper argues that although partisan disputes have stopped the negotiation, it is entirely possible to resume negotiations, because the benefits of TTIP to both sides are clear at a glance. The agreement would expand trade and investment between the United States and Europe and promote economic growth by reducing or eliminating tariffs, reducing or eliminating non-tariff barriers and promoting transatlantic regional division of labor. The high standards of intellectual property protection, the formulation of new industrial rules, the unification of global standards for state-owned enterprises, industrial technology and safety standards would affect the signing of agreements between the US-EU and other trading partners and the original rules of the WTO. The establishment of a trans-Atlantic free trade zone would consolidate the strategic partnership between the United States and the European Union. The impact of the agreement on China should not be ignored. If the agreement were reached and implemented, it would not only have a certain trade transfer effect on China, but also weaken China's participation, voice and influence in the formulation of new international rules and standards. Some rules would curb the momentum of China's economic development and impede the realization of the Chinese dream. Faced with these challenges, China has taken positive measures. This paper holds that attention should also be paid to domestic economic construction and social stability. Some suggestions are put forward in this paper.
引文
① 括弧内数据为去除欧盟内部贸易后的比重。数据来自World Trade Organization, World Trade Statistical Review 2018, p.125,2018-09-10, https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts_e.htm。
(1)美国经济不景气时,对外贸易逆差就缩小,而经济出现显著增长时,由于进口需求旺盛,往往贸易逆差扩大。图2显示出美国GDP增长率与对外贸易逆差之间的关系。
(2)《TTIP谈判提速分歧依然难弥合大难点待推进》,2015-10-30,http://www.cet.com.cn/wzsy/cj/1659404.shtml。
(3)《TTIP谈判提速分歧依然难弥合大难点待推进》,2015-10-30,http://www.cet.com.cn/wzsy/cj/1659404.shtml。
(4)林珏主编:《区域自由贸易协定中“负面清单”的国际比较研究》,北京:北京大学出版社,2016年,第18页。
(5)张晓秋:“跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定(TTIP)谈判难以为继?”,http://www.ccpit.org/Contents/Channel_4114/2016/0506/641254/content_641254.htm。
(6)德国科学和政治基金会经济学家黑里贝特·迪特尔教授这么认为,并警告新协定应防止对第三方构成歧视。
(7)王义桅:《TTIP对中国的三大影响》,《第一财经日报》2013年12月25日。
(8)见李晓喻、石岩报道,中新社北京2016年2月17日电:“商务部:只要开放透明中国对TTIP持开放态度”,http://news.sohu.com/20160217/n437650008.shtml。
(9)已签署的自贸协定还包知:中国—瑞士(2013)、中国—马尔代夫(2017)、中国—以色列、中国—格鲁吉亚(2017)、中国—巴基斯坦(2010)、中国—哥斯达黎加(2010)、中国—韩国(2015),2018年与巴基斯坦和韩国进行协定第二阶段谈判。
(1)美国经济不景气时,对外贸易逆差就缩小,而经济出现显著增长时,由于进口需求旺盛,往往贸易逆差扩大。图2显示出美国GDP增长率与对外贸易逆差之间的关系。
(2)《TTIP谈判提速分歧依然难弥合大难点待推进》,2015-10-30,http://www.cet.com.cn/wzsy/cj/1659404.shtml。
(3)《TTIP谈判提速分歧依然难弥合大难点待推进》,2015-10-30,http://www.cet.com.cn/wzsy/cj/1659404.shtml。
(4)林珏主编:《区域自由贸易协定中“负面清单”的国际比较研究》,北京:北京大学出版社,2016年,第18页。
(5)张晓秋:“跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定(TTIP)谈判难以为继?”,http://www.ccpit.org/Contents/Channel_4114/2016/0506/641254/content_641254.htm。
(6)德国科学和政治基金会经济学家黑里贝特·迪特尔教授这么认为,并警告新协定应防止对第三方构成歧视。
(7)王义桅:《TTIP对中国的三大影响》,《第一财经日报》2013年12月25日。
(8)见李晓喻、石岩报道,中新社北京2016年2月17日电:“商务部:只要开放透明中国对TTIP持开放态度”,http://news.sohu.com/20160217/n437650008.shtml。
(9)已签署的自贸协定还包知:中国—瑞士(2013)、中国—马尔代夫(2017)、中国—以色列、中国—格鲁吉亚(2017)、中国—巴基斯坦(2010)、中国—哥斯达黎加(2010)、中国—韩国(2015),2018年与巴基斯坦和韩国进行协定第二阶段谈判。