基于全球价值链视角的中美贸易摩擦透视
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摘要
与以往贸易摩擦不同,此轮美国对中国出口商品加征关税更多集中于技术含量较高的产品,这表明此轮中美贸易摩擦从本质上讲是美国对中国进行的战略遏制。中美贸易摩擦将通过对多边、区域和双边贸易体系、生产者行为、消费市场等因素的影响,对全球价值链分工与贸易体系造成破坏并重构,但这并不意味着美国可以借此实现"制造业回流"。在中国廉价劳动力比较优势逐渐丧失的背景下,美国采用技术阻断的方式挑起贸易摩擦,将进一步抑制中国参与全球价值链的程度和位置攀升,影响中国在全球价值链分工中的获益水平。中国可以从兼顾GVC(国内价值链)与NVC(国际价值链),加强核心技术研发,推动多边、区域及双边贸易体系发展,实现出口市场和原材料、关键零部件进口市场多元化等方面入手,最大程度地降低中美贸易摩擦的负面影响,着力突破全球价值链低端锁定,实现在全球价值链中地位的稳步攀升。
Unlike previous trade frictions,the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese exports in this round of trade friction are more concentrated on products with high technical content,which shows that this round of trade friction between China and the United States is essentially the US's strategic containment of China. The Sino-US trade friction will destroy and restructure the global value chain division of labor and trade system by affecting multilateral,regional and bilateral trade systems,producer behavior,consumer markets and other factors,but this does not mean that the United States can achieve"manufacturing reflux"from it. Against the background of the gradual loss of Chinese comparative advantage of cheap labor,the US has provoked the trade friction with technology interruption,which will further inhibit China's participation in the global value chain and its rising position,affecting China's benefits in the global value chain division of labor. Facing this reality,China can start with taking into account both GVC and NVC,strengthening research and development of core technologies,promoting the development of multilateral,regional and bilateral trade systems,and realizing the diversification of export markets,raw materials and key components,so as to minimize the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions,strive to break through the low-end lock-in of the global value chain and achieve a steady rise of its position in the global value chain.
Unlike previous trade frictions,the tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese exports in this round of trade friction are more concentrated on products with high technical content,which shows that this round of trade friction between China and the United States is essentially the US's strategic containment of China. The Sino-US trade friction will destroy and restructure the global value chain division of labor and trade system by affecting multilateral,regional and bilateral trade systems,producer behavior,consumer markets and other factors,but this does not mean that the United States can achieve"manufacturing reflux"from it. Against the background of the gradual loss of Chinese comparative advantage of cheap labor,the US has provoked the trade friction with technology interruption,which will further inhibit China's participation in the global value chain and its rising position,affecting China's benefits in the global value chain division of labor. Facing this reality,China can start with taking into account both GVC and NVC,strengthening research and development of core technologies,promoting the development of multilateral,regional and bilateral trade systems,and realizing the diversification of export markets,raw materials and key components,so as to minimize the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions,strive to break through the low-end lock-in of the global value chain and achieve a steady rise of its position in the global value chain.
引文
(1)O.Koukhartchouk,M.Maurel.Accession to the WTO and EUEnlargement:What Potential for Trade Increase?.Centre for E-conomic Policy Research,2003:1-30;Henri L.F.De Groot,Gert-Jan Linders,P.Rietveld,et al.The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns.Kyklos,2004(57):103-123;F.A.G.D.Butter,R.H.J.Mosch.Trade,Trust and Transaction Cost.Social Science Electronic Publishing,2003,03-082/3.
(1)樊海潮、张丽娜:《中间品贸易与中美贸易摩擦的福利效应:基于理论与量化分析的研究》,载《中国工业经济》2018年第9期。
(2)M.J.Melitz,G.Ottaviano.Market Size,Trade and Productivity.Review of Economic Studies,2008(75):295-316.
(3)相关信息来自韩国《朝鲜日报》,2018-06-18。
(1)刘斌、王乃嘉、魏倩:《中间品关税减让与企业价值链参与》,载《中国软科学》2015年第8期。
(2)相关信息来自凤凰新闻网,http://fashion.ifeng.com/a/20180822/40392615_0.shtml。
(3)相关信息来自财新网,http://zgtrend.blog.caixin.com/archives/189861。
(1)杨飞、孙文远、程瑶:《技术赶超是否引发中美贸易摩擦》,载《中国工业经济》2018年第10期。
(2)余振、周冰惠、谢旭斌等:《参与全球价值链重构与中美贸易摩擦》,载《中国工业经济》2018年第7期。
(3)郭美新、陆琳、盛柳刚等:《反制中美贸易摩擦和扩大开放》,载《学术月刊》2018年第6期。
(4)史青、李平:《再议中国企业出口的就业效应》,载《财贸经济》2014年第10期。
(1)樊海潮、张丽娜:《中间品贸易与中美贸易摩擦的福利效应:基于理论与量化分析的研究》,载《中国工业经济》2018年第9期。
(2)M.J.Melitz,G.Ottaviano.Market Size,Trade and Productivity.Review of Economic Studies,2008(75):295-316.
(3)相关信息来自韩国《朝鲜日报》,2018-06-18。
(1)刘斌、王乃嘉、魏倩:《中间品关税减让与企业价值链参与》,载《中国软科学》2015年第8期。
(2)相关信息来自凤凰新闻网,http://fashion.ifeng.com/a/20180822/40392615_0.shtml。
(3)相关信息来自财新网,http://zgtrend.blog.caixin.com/archives/189861。
(1)杨飞、孙文远、程瑶:《技术赶超是否引发中美贸易摩擦》,载《中国工业经济》2018年第10期。
(2)余振、周冰惠、谢旭斌等:《参与全球价值链重构与中美贸易摩擦》,载《中国工业经济》2018年第7期。
(3)郭美新、陆琳、盛柳刚等:《反制中美贸易摩擦和扩大开放》,载《学术月刊》2018年第6期。
(4)史青、李平:《再议中国企业出口的就业效应》,载《财贸经济》2014年第10期。