基于多尺度的中部六省旅游经济差异及预测分析
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摘要
以我国中部六省为研究区域,利用变异系数、基尼系数、区位商、相对发展率等方法,基于中部地区整体、省域、市域三种尺度分析了2000—2017年中部六省国内旅游和入境旅游的经济差异,并运用GM(1,1)预测模型对中部六省未来的经济差异趋势做出预测。结果显示:①中部六省国内旅游相对差异与发展水平总体呈下降趋势,入境旅游相对差异与发展水平呈现先增大后减小再增大的态势。②中部六省的国内旅游经济水平和发展速度整体较高,省会城市呈现独霸性发展特征,晋湘两省省内发展水平明显提高,空间分布呈圈层结构。中部六省入境旅游经济水平及发展速度整体较低,在皖赣两省交界存在集聚现象。国内旅游收入增长速度整体上大于旅游创汇收入的增长速度。③中部六省国内旅游发展差异在未来呈现递减趋势,而入境旅游的发展差异呈现不断递增趋势。
This paper used the central 6 provinces as the research area,using the coefficient of variation,Gini coefficient,location quotient,relative development rate and other methods to analyze the domestic tourism of the 6 central provinces in 2000-2017 based on the overall,provincial and municipal scales of the central region. The economic differences in inbound tourism,and the use of GM( 1,1)forecasting model predicted the future economic differences in the central 6 provinces. The results showed that: ①The relative differences and development levels of domestic tourism in the central 6 provinces were generally declining. The relative differences and development levels of inbound tourism were firstly increasing,then decreasing and then increasing. ②The domestic tourism economic level and development speed of the central 6 provinces were generally high,and the provincial capital cities showed a dominant developmental characteristic. The development level of the provinces of Shanxi and Hunan was obviously improved,and the spatial distribution showed a circle structure. The economic level and development speed of inbound tourism in the central 6 provinces were generally low,and there was a gathering phenomenon at the junction of the Anhui and Jiangxi. The growth rate of domestic tourism income was greater than the growth rate of tourism revenue. ③The difference in domestic tourism development in the central 6 provinces showed a decreasing trend in the future,and the development difference of inbound tourism showed an increasing trend.
This paper used the central 6 provinces as the research area,using the coefficient of variation,Gini coefficient,location quotient,relative development rate and other methods to analyze the domestic tourism of the 6 central provinces in 2000-2017 based on the overall,provincial and municipal scales of the central region. The economic differences in inbound tourism,and the use of GM( 1,1)forecasting model predicted the future economic differences in the central 6 provinces. The results showed that: ①The relative differences and development levels of domestic tourism in the central 6 provinces were generally declining. The relative differences and development levels of inbound tourism were firstly increasing,then decreasing and then increasing. ②The domestic tourism economic level and development speed of the central 6 provinces were generally high,and the provincial capital cities showed a dominant developmental characteristic. The development level of the provinces of Shanxi and Hunan was obviously improved,and the spatial distribution showed a circle structure. The economic level and development speed of inbound tourism in the central 6 provinces were generally low,and there was a gathering phenomenon at the junction of the Anhui and Jiangxi. The growth rate of domestic tourism income was greater than the growth rate of tourism revenue. ③The difference in domestic tourism development in the central 6 provinces showed a decreasing trend in the future,and the development difference of inbound tourism showed an increasing trend.
引文
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[24]杨引弟,孙根年,聂琳琳.武汉在湖北城市旅游中的独霸性及效应分析[J].资源开发与市场,2016,32(10)∶1277-1280.
[2]Massidda C,Etzo I.The Determinants of Italian Domestic Tourism:A Panel Data Analysis[J].Tourism Management,2012,33(3)∶603-610.
[3]Ksenija V.Competitiveness of Frontier Regions and Tourism Destination Management[J].Managing Global Transitions,2012,10(1)∶51-68
[4]Gooroochurn N,Sugiyarto G.Competitiveness Indicator in the Travel and Tourism Industry[J].Tourism Economics,2005,11(1)∶25-43.
[5]Barros C P,Botti L,Peypoch N,et al.Performance of French Destinations∶Tourism Attraction Perspectives[J].Tourism Management,2011,32(1)∶141-146.
[6]Njoroge J M.An Enhanced Framework for Regional Tourism Sustainable Adaptation to Climate Change[J].Tourism Management Perspectives,2014,(12)∶23-30.
[7]Jorge M,Andraz,Nelia M,et al.Effects of Tourism on Regional A-symmetries:Empirical Evidence for Portugal[J].Tourism Management,2015,(50)∶257-267.
[8]陆林,余凤龙.中国旅游经济差异的空间特征分析[J].经济地理,2005,(3)∶406-410.
[9]程进,陆林.安徽省区域旅游经济差异研究[J].安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,33(1)∶81-85.
[10]王钦安,张丽惠.我国入境旅游时序差异特征与空间格局演变分析[J].统计与决策,2017,(14)∶130-134.
[11]吴冰,马耀峰,高楠.基于Theil指数的陕西入境旅游经济区域时空差异研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(7)∶186-191.
[12]郝俊卿,曹明明.基于时空尺度下陕西省旅游经济差异及形成机制研究[J].旅游科学,2009,23(6)∶35-39.
[13]赵俊远,苏朝阳,黄宁.西北5省(区)区域旅游经济差异变化---基于泰尔指数的测度[J].资源开发与市场,2008,(3)∶214-217.
[14]郭永锐,张捷,卢韶婧,等.中国入境旅游经济空间格局的时空动态性[J].地理科学,2014,34(11)∶1299-1304.
[15]王洪桥,袁家冬,孟祥君.东北三省旅游经济差异的时空特征分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(2)∶163-169.
[16]向延平.旅游发展与经济增长空间自相关分析---基于武陵山区的经验数据[J].经济地理,2012,32(8)∶172-175.
[17]方叶林,黄震方,王坤,等.基于PCA-ESDA的中国省域旅游经济时空差异分析[J].经济地理,2012,32(8)∶149-154,35.
[18]王开泳,张鹏岩,丁旭生.黄河流域旅游经济的时空分异与R/S分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(3)∶295-301.
[19]胡文海,孙建平,余菲菲.安徽省区域旅游经济发展的时空格局演变[J].地理研究,2015,34(9)∶1795-1806.
[20]李丽.我国沿海省际旅游产业竞争力评价---基于相对贴近度改进的TOPSIS法[J].商业经济研究,2017,(9)∶184-187.
[21]方琰,卞显红.长江三角洲旅游经济差异时空演变分析[J].旅游论坛,2014,7(2)∶50-56.
[22]马年圣,支晓娟,宋雨婷.基于PSR和GM(1,1)模型的西藏耕地生态安全评价与预测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(11)∶81-86.
[23]沈惊宏,陆玉麒.安徽省国内旅游经济增长与区域差异空间格局演变[J].地理科学,2012,32(10)∶1220-1227.
[24]杨引弟,孙根年,聂琳琳.武汉在湖北城市旅游中的独霸性及效应分析[J].资源开发与市场,2016,32(10)∶1277-1280.