收入冲击、婚姻满意度和夫妻议价
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  • 英文篇名:Income Shock,Marital Satisfaction and Bargaining Power
  • 作者:马超 ; 程令国 ; 闫雪凌
  • 英文作者:Ma Chao;Cheng Lingguo;Yan Xueling;School of Public Health,Southeast University;Business School,Nanjing University;School of Economics,Sichuan University;
  • 关键词:收入 ; 婚姻满意度 ; 新农保 ; 断点回归方法 ; 议价能力
  • 英文关键词:income;;marital satisfaction;;new rural pension scheme;;regression discontinuity design;;bargaining power
  • 中文刊名:LDJJ
  • 英文刊名:Studies in Labor Economics
  • 机构:东南大学公共卫生学院;南京大学商学院;四川大学经济学院;
  • 出版日期:2019-06-15
  • 出版单位:劳动经济研究
  • 年:2019
  • 期:v.7;No.34
  • 基金:国家社会科学基金青年项目“新型农村社会养老保险制度对农村居民养老模式与养老质量的影响研究”(项目号:13CJY028);; 教育部人文社会科学规划项目“新型农村社会养老保险的劳动供给效应研究”(项目号:17YJA790016);; 东南大学至善学者计划(项目号:2242019R40049)的支持
  • 语种:中文;
  • 页:LDJJ201903006
  • 页数:25
  • CN:03
  • ISSN:10-1128/F
  • 分类号:121-145
摘要
婚姻满意度一直是婚姻经济学和家庭经济学的重要议题,但关于收入与婚姻满意度之间因果关系的研究较为缺乏。本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2014年数据,利用中国农村老年人60岁后才有资格领取新农保养老金这一自然实验所带来的外生收入冲击,采用断点回归设计考察了收入冲击对婚姻满意度的因果效应。结果显示,收入增加将显著促进中老年人的婚姻满意度,该结论在一系列稳健性检验下仍然成立。机制分析显示,收入提升婚姻满意度并非是通过扩大家庭的整体预算约束引起的,而是由于获得养老金的一方提升了其在婚姻关系中的议价能力。
        Marital satisfaction has always been an important topic in family economics. However,literatures on the causal relationship between income and marital satisfaction are relatively incomplete. In this paper,we examine the causal effect of income on marital satisfaction,through an experiment in which pension income is treated as an exogenous shock. The experiment is designed under the context that rural residents over 60 years old are eligible for pension in China. Using regression discontinuity design method with CFPS data of the year 2014,we find that increase in income significantly promotes marital satisfaction among rural residents,and the results remain robust after a series of checks. Moreover,mechanism analysis shows that the promotion of marital satisfaction is not caused by expanding the overall budget constraint of a family,but mainly because the one who receives pension gains more bargaining power within the marriage.
引文
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    (1)来自中央人民政府网《国务院关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》(国发[2009]32号),http://www. gov. cn/zhengce/content/2009-09/04/content_7280. htm。
    (1)如果把断点设为60. 1岁、60. 3岁,结果不变。
    (1)该方法参考Calonico et al.(2014)、Calonico et al.(2018)、Calonico et al.(2017)。
    (1)右侧截取到75岁,主要由于75岁与45岁关于断点对称。如果右侧截取到80岁、85岁,或者不设限制一直取到最大值104岁,结果基本一致。由于断点回归是加权的“局部”处理效应,最终进行因果推断的只是带宽内的局部样本,而且本文还采用各种不同带宽进行了稳健性分析。因此,基准样本对年龄如何截取,对本文结论不会产生影响。
    (2)为了捕捉更多的婚姻满意度信息,在后文回归分析中,我们把1~5作为连续变量处理。这样处理的一个缺陷在于5个刻度可能不是等距的,如果我们把婚姻满意度转换成0、1变量(把4、5赋值为1,把1、2、3赋值为0),结论不变。
    (1)由于只有已婚个体才汇报婚姻满意度,本文样本限定为农村已婚居民。为了考察断点处的结婚率是否存在跳跃,本文将样本放宽为农村居民,包括未婚居民。
    (1)由于以下原因,高阶数结果不可信。首先,高阶多项式下的权重存在问题,远离断点的样本本该权重接近0,但可能会在高阶情况下权重偏离0,且会随阶数的不同而发生大幅度变化。第二,高阶多项式的估计结果对阶数选择高度敏感。第三,基于高阶多项式的置信区间偏窄从而会过度拒绝原假设。因此,高阶的统计推断往往不可信。事实上,在Gelman&Imbens(2014)工作论文出来后,学界基本遵从了他们的建议,2015-2016年刊发在The American Economic Review的6篇采用RD进行实证的论文,5篇阶数都只是1次或2次。
    (1)子女对父母的转移支付可能还与居住安排有关。程令国等(2013)发现,如果获得养老金会让老年人由跟子女合住转变为分开居住,子女对老年人的转移支付反而会增加。Chen et al.(2018)证实了获得新农保会让老年人更倾向于跟子女分开居住。不过,Huang&Zhang(2016)用全国数据并没有发现新农保会改变居住方式。本文分别以“家庭同灶吃饭人数”和“每周与家人一起吃饭次数”作为因变量进行回归,如表7第(6)列和第(7)列所示,结果并不显著,即居住方式对本文结论影响也不大。
    (1)由于61. 25岁并不是获得养老金的断点,因此,以此作为断点进行估计,结果不显著的原因还可能是第一阶段太弱。因此,本文又进行了补充性验证:在简约模型的基础上增加各消费变量,如果各消费变量是解释收入促进婚姻满意度的机制,那么,简约模型核心变量“大于等于60. 25岁”前系数的大小及显著性应该会减弱(Cutler&Lleras-Muney,2010)。我们发现,这些消费变量均不显著,即与婚姻满意度关系不大。
    (1)虽无法排除所有的Becker新古典一元家庭模型的机制,但上述证据使我们转而考虑夫妻议价机制。通过排除其他机制进一步验证夫妻议价机制的思路与Li&Wu(2011)类似。

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