基于FTA-IAHP的氧枪漏水致因分析
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摘要
为防止钢铁企业中的氧枪漏水引起的高温熔融金属遇水爆炸事故,通过事故树层次分析与区间层次分析相结合进行氧枪漏水致因分析。首先,通过系统安全理论分析引起氧枪漏水的原因并绘制氧枪漏水事故树,并根据基本事件建立层次分析模型;然后,分别利用事故树层次分析和区间层次分析确定各因素权重;最后,将两种方法求出的权重进行综合计算,得到最终权重,并对结果进行分析讨论。结果表明,安全装置状况对防止氧枪漏水事件发生最为重要,安全管理的重要性仅次于安全装置。
In order to prevent the explosion of high temperature molten metal and water which is caused by oxygen lance leaking in iron and steel enterprises,the cause analysis of oxygen lance leakage is carried out through the combination of fault tree analysis and interval analysis. First of all,the cause of oxygen lance leakage is analyzed through system safety theory,and the oxygen lance accident tree is drawn. Based on the basic events,the AHP model is established. Then,the weight of each factor is determined by using the analysis of fault tree and interval level analysis respectively. Finally,the weights calculated by the two methods are calculated comprehensively to get the final weights,and the results are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the status of safety devices is important to prevent the occurrence of oxygen lance and the importance of safety management is second only to safety devices.
In order to prevent the explosion of high temperature molten metal and water which is caused by oxygen lance leaking in iron and steel enterprises,the cause analysis of oxygen lance leakage is carried out through the combination of fault tree analysis and interval analysis. First of all,the cause of oxygen lance leakage is analyzed through system safety theory,and the oxygen lance accident tree is drawn. Based on the basic events,the AHP model is established. Then,the weight of each factor is determined by using the analysis of fault tree and interval level analysis respectively. Finally,the weights calculated by the two methods are calculated comprehensively to get the final weights,and the results are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the status of safety devices is important to prevent the occurrence of oxygen lance and the importance of safety management is second only to safety devices.
引文
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[2]伍爱友,施式亮,王从陆.基于事故树方法与三角模糊理论耦合的城市火灾风险分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(7):31-36,179.
[3]石龙,张瑞芳,谢启源,等.改进层次分析法在公共建筑火灾风险分析中的应用[J].科学通报,2009,54(3):329-336.
[4]陈宝智.系统安全评价与预测[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2011:118-130.
[5]刘铁民,张兴凯,刘功智.安全评价方法应用指南[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005:15-38.
[6]郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008(5):148-153.
[7]周毅,赵晓刚.基于区间层次分析法的石油库防火防爆安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(12):58-63.
[8]冯筠.基于区间层次分析法的网络安全评估研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(5):162-167.
[9]张小红,裴道武,代建华.模糊数学与Rough集理论[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2013:100-120.
[10]徐泽水.不确定多属性决策方法及应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.