波罗的海干散货运价指数影响因素分析
摘要
为厘清波罗的海干散货运价指数(BDI)影响因素间的相互关系,基于现有研究理论,将航运供需关系、世界经济、燃油费用、船舶投资、造船厂的产能利用率及压港等因素量化引入BDI的计量经济学模型中,构建BDI的双对数回归模型。结果表明:航运市场的干散货贸易量对BDI的影响远大于运力供给;二手船与新造船的价格比值可以作为新造船投资决策的依据,且与BDI呈正相关;造船厂的产能利用率与BDI存在负相关性;燃油价格并不影响BDI的波动。研究BDI的影响因素有利于探究国际航运市场的作用机制,有助于航运企业制定恰当的运营决策,有效地规避可能的营运风险。
引文
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[6]李瑞华,宋炳良.基于协整理论的海运价格指数影响因素[J].中国航海,2014(3):123-126.
[7] ERDOGAN O,TATA K,KARAHASAN B,et al.Dynamics of the co-movement between stock and maritime markets[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2012(7):282-290.
[8] MERI KAS A,M ER IKA A,KOUTROUBO USIS G.Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector:choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one[J].Maritime Policy&Management,2008(5):433-447.
[9]吕靖,李晶,宫晓婞.国际航运经济学[M]北京:人民交通出版社,2005:128.
[2] XU J J,YIP T L,MARLOW P B.The dynamics between freight volatility and fleet size growth in dry bulk shipping markets[J].Transportation Research Part E:logistics and transportation review,2011(6):983-991.
[3] BILDIRICI M E,KAYIKCI F,ONAT I S.Baltic Dry Index as a major economic policy indicator:the relationship with economic growth[J]. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2015(12):416-424.
[4]陈丽芬,谢新连,桑惠云,等.基于SVAR模型的干散货运价和燃油价格的相关性分析[J].大连海事大学学报,2016(4):119-124.
[5] RUAN Q S,WANG Y,LU X S,et al.Cross-correlations between Baltic Dry Index and crude oil prices[J].Physica A:statistical meahanics and its applications,2016(7):278-289.
[6]李瑞华,宋炳良.基于协整理论的海运价格指数影响因素[J].中国航海,2014(3):123-126.
[7] ERDOGAN O,TATA K,KARAHASAN B,et al.Dynamics of the co-movement between stock and maritime markets[J].International Review of Economics and Finance,2012(7):282-290.
[8] MERI KAS A,M ER IKA A,KOUTROUBO USIS G.Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector:choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one[J].Maritime Policy&Management,2008(5):433-447.
[9]吕靖,李晶,宫晓婞.国际航运经济学[M]北京:人民交通出版社,2005:128.