灰色理论在汽车涂层自然老化预测中的应用研究
|
摘要
根据灰色理论构建GM(1,1)预测模型,对干热环境下自然暴晒黑色汽车涂层的光泽变化和色差变化情况进行预测,研究所建预测模型在黑色汽车涂层自然老化行为预测中的适用性;对黑色汽车涂层的光泽和色差的预测结果表明:所建模型的预测精度等级为2级以上,模拟值与实际值的最大相对误差为5.4%,模型可以用于黑色汽车涂层自然老化行为的预测,并预测某车型汽车后保险杠涂层在吐鲁番典型干热环境下使用寿命为24个月。
GM(1,1) prediction model has been constructed according to Grey Theory. The change of gloss retention and colour aberration of the black automobile coating under the condition of dry-hot natural environment is predicted. The applicability of the constructed model in black automobile coating aging behavior was investigated. Prediction results of gloss retention and colour aberration for black automobile coating show that the prediction accuracy grade of the constructed model is 2 or above,the maximum relative error between simulation value and the actual value is 5. 4%,and the constructed model can be used to predict the natural aging behavior of black automobile coating. It is predicted that the service life of automobile rear bumper coating is 24 months in a dry-hot natural environment in Turpan,Xinjiang,China.
GM(1,1) prediction model has been constructed according to Grey Theory. The change of gloss retention and colour aberration of the black automobile coating under the condition of dry-hot natural environment is predicted. The applicability of the constructed model in black automobile coating aging behavior was investigated. Prediction results of gloss retention and colour aberration for black automobile coating show that the prediction accuracy grade of the constructed model is 2 or above,the maximum relative error between simulation value and the actual value is 5. 4%,and the constructed model can be used to predict the natural aging behavior of black automobile coating. It is predicted that the service life of automobile rear bumper coating is 24 months in a dry-hot natural environment in Turpan,Xinjiang,China.
引文
[1]马坚,揭敢新,刘强,等.汽车气候老化应用技术[M].1版.广州:华南理工大学出版社,2013.
[2]COLIN X,AUDOUIN L,VERDU J,et al.Aging of polyethylene pipes transporting drinking water disinfected by chlorine dioxide.Part II—Lifetime prediction[J].Polymer Engineering&Science,2009,49(8):1642-1652.
[3]BARBERO E J.Prediction of long-term creep of composites from doubly-shifted polymer creep data[J].Journal of Composite Materials,2012,43(19):2109-2124.
[4]LIU H,ZHOU M Y,ZHOU Y L,et al.Aging life prediction system of polymer outdoors constructed by ANN:1.Lifetime prediction for polycarbonate[J].Polym Degrad Stab,2014,105:218-236.
[5]RAY A K,KUMAR S,KRISHANA G,et al.Micro structual studies and remaining life assessment of eleven years service exposed reformer tube[J].Materials Science and Engineering A,2011,529:102-112.
[6]SU WOO C,SEEN CHOI S,BEOM L S.Useful lifetime prediction of rubber components using accelerated testing[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2010,59(1):11-17.
[7]KHIABANI MOGHADAM M,MORSHEDIAN J,EHSANI M,etal.Lifetime prediction of HV silicone rubber insulators based on mechanical tests after thermal ageing[J].IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation,2013,20(3):711-716.
[8]尚建丽,王健.GM(1,1)模型在外饰面涂层耐久性预测中的应用[J].涂料工业,2010,40(8):13-15.
[9]黄伟,仇君.塑料自然老化力学性能的灰色预测[J].广西大学学报自然科学版,2001,26(4):275-277.
[10]CHENG-SIUNG H.Grey neural net work and its application to short term load forecasting problem[J].IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems,2002,E85-D(5):897-902.
[11]CUI J,ZENG B.Study on parameters characteristics of NGM(l,l,k)prediction model with multiplication transformation[J].Grey Systems Theory and Application,2012,2(1):24-35.
[12]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[13]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[14]陈奎,张天云,郑小平,等.灰色理论在塑料老化行为预测中的应用研究[J].塑料工业,2013,41(4):113-116.
[15]张晓东,王俊,揭敢新,等.干热环境下的汽车耐候性试验结果分析[J].汽车工艺与材料,2015(10):36-38.
[2]COLIN X,AUDOUIN L,VERDU J,et al.Aging of polyethylene pipes transporting drinking water disinfected by chlorine dioxide.Part II—Lifetime prediction[J].Polymer Engineering&Science,2009,49(8):1642-1652.
[3]BARBERO E J.Prediction of long-term creep of composites from doubly-shifted polymer creep data[J].Journal of Composite Materials,2012,43(19):2109-2124.
[4]LIU H,ZHOU M Y,ZHOU Y L,et al.Aging life prediction system of polymer outdoors constructed by ANN:1.Lifetime prediction for polycarbonate[J].Polym Degrad Stab,2014,105:218-236.
[5]RAY A K,KUMAR S,KRISHANA G,et al.Micro structual studies and remaining life assessment of eleven years service exposed reformer tube[J].Materials Science and Engineering A,2011,529:102-112.
[6]SU WOO C,SEEN CHOI S,BEOM L S.Useful lifetime prediction of rubber components using accelerated testing[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2010,59(1):11-17.
[7]KHIABANI MOGHADAM M,MORSHEDIAN J,EHSANI M,etal.Lifetime prediction of HV silicone rubber insulators based on mechanical tests after thermal ageing[J].IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation,2013,20(3):711-716.
[8]尚建丽,王健.GM(1,1)模型在外饰面涂层耐久性预测中的应用[J].涂料工业,2010,40(8):13-15.
[9]黄伟,仇君.塑料自然老化力学性能的灰色预测[J].广西大学学报自然科学版,2001,26(4):275-277.
[10]CHENG-SIUNG H.Grey neural net work and its application to short term load forecasting problem[J].IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems,2002,E85-D(5):897-902.
[11]CUI J,ZENG B.Study on parameters characteristics of NGM(l,l,k)prediction model with multiplication transformation[J].Grey Systems Theory and Application,2012,2(1):24-35.
[12]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[13]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[14]陈奎,张天云,郑小平,等.灰色理论在塑料老化行为预测中的应用研究[J].塑料工业,2013,41(4):113-116.
[15]张晓东,王俊,揭敢新,等.干热环境下的汽车耐候性试验结果分析[J].汽车工艺与材料,2015(10):36-38.