基于联系度优化TOPSIS法的区域电能替代潜力评估研究
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摘要
电能替代是在终端能源消费环节,使用电能替代燃煤、燃油的能源消费方式,对推动能源消费革命,减少大气污染意义重大。为评估各区域电能替代潜力,从社会经济水平、能源消费结构、环保约束、经济性、配套支持5个方面构建了中国区域电能替代潜力评估指标体系,并采用云模型和熵权法相组合的方法来确定各指标的权重,同时,使用联系度优化的TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity toan ideal solution)法对各区域的电能替代潜力进行评估。最后应用此指标体系和评估方法对国网管辖区内的25个区域的电能替代潜力进行了评估排名,并在对评估结果进行分析的基础上提出了相应的电能替代推广策略。
Electrical energy substitution is a way using electricity to replace scattered coal and fuel oil in terminal energy consumption. It is of great significance to promote energy consumption revolution and reduce atmospheric pollution. In order to assess the potential of electric energy substitution in each region, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of China's regional electric energy substitution potential from five aspects: socioeconomic level, energy consumption structure, environmental protection constraints, economy, and matched support. Combination of cloud model and entropy weighting method is used to determine the weight of each index. At the same time, TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) method based on connection degree optimization is used to assess potential for electric energy substitution in each region. Finally, the index system and evaluation methods are used to assess the potential of electric energy substitution in 25 regions under jurisdiction of State Grid. Based on analysis of the evaluation results, corresponding electric energy substitution promotion strategies are proposed.
Electrical energy substitution is a way using electricity to replace scattered coal and fuel oil in terminal energy consumption. It is of great significance to promote energy consumption revolution and reduce atmospheric pollution. In order to assess the potential of electric energy substitution in each region, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of China's regional electric energy substitution potential from five aspects: socioeconomic level, energy consumption structure, environmental protection constraints, economy, and matched support. Combination of cloud model and entropy weighting method is used to determine the weight of each index. At the same time, TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution) method based on connection degree optimization is used to assess potential for electric energy substitution in each region. Finally, the index system and evaluation methods are used to assess the potential of electric energy substitution in 25 regions under jurisdiction of State Grid. Based on analysis of the evaluation results, corresponding electric energy substitution promotion strategies are proposed.
引文
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[18]徐士东.云模型与TOPSIS相结合的多属性群决策方法[J].计算机应用研究,2017,34(10):2964-2967.Xu Shidong.Multi-attribute group decision making method combining cloud model and TOPSIS[J].Computer Application Research,2017,34(10):2964-2967(in Chinese).
[19]张目,周宗放.一种基于联系度的改进TOPSIS法[J].系统工程,2008,26(8):102-107.Zhang Mu,Zhou Zongfang.An improved TOPSIS method based on connection degree[J].Systems Engineering,2008,26(8):102-107(in Chinese).
[20]韩国元,陈伟,冯志军.企业合作创新伙伴的选择研究--基于微粒群算法定权的改进TOPSIS法[J].科研管理,2014,35(2):119-126.Han Guoyuan,Chen Wei,Feng Zhijun.Research on the selection of enterprise cooperative innovation partners-improved TOPSIS method based on particle swarm optimization[J].Research Management,2014,35(2):119-126(in Chinese).
[2]Ke W,Zhang S,Wu Y,et al.Assessing the future vehicle fleet electrification:the impacts on regional and urban air quality[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2017,51(2):1007.
[3]Javadi F S,Rismanchi B,Sarraf M,et al.Global policy of rural electrification[J].Renewable&Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,19(1):402-416.
[4]Xu Z,Nthontho M,Chowdhury S.Rural electrification implementation strategies through microgrid approach in South African context[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2016(82):452-465.
[5]张晓毅,贺惠民,魏巍,等.“电能替代”是治理城市雾霾的重要途径探讨[J].环境科学与管理,2016,41(12):84-88.Zhang Xiaoyi,He Huimin,Wei Wei,et al.Electric power replacement-a key way for urban pollution haze control[J].Environmental Science and Management,2016,41(12):84-88(in Chinese).
[6]谢里,梁思美.电能替代与生态环境效率:来自中国省级层面的经验证据[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2017,23(1):91-100.Xie Li,Liang Simei.Electrical energy substitution and ecoenvironmental efficiency:Empirical evidence from the provincial level in China[J].Journal of Central South University(Social Science)2017,23(1):91-100(in Chinese).
[7]王东升,刘明锐,白向飞,等.京津冀地区民用燃煤使用现状分析[J].煤质技术,2016(3):47-49.Wang Dongsheng,Liu Mingrui,Bai Xiangfei,et al.The situation analysis of civil coal in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Coal Technology,2016(3):47-49(in Chinese).
[8]武中,李强,徐红涛.供暖领域电能替代效益分析[J].浙江工业大学学报,2015,43(5):508-511.Wu Zhong,Li Qiang,Xu Hongtao.Efficiency evaluation of alternative energy in heat supply system[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology,2015,43(5):508-511(in Chinese).
[9]马婷.基于地源热泵的电能替代方式在辽宁朝阳地区的应用研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2016.
[10]孙毅,周爽,单葆国,等.多情景下的电能替代潜力分析[J].电网技术,2017,41(1):118-123.Sun Yi,Zhou Shuang,Shan Baoguo,et al.Analysis of electric power alternative potential under multi-scenario[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(1):118-123(in Chinese).
[11]孙毅,石墨,单葆国,等.基于粒子群优化支持向量机的电能替代潜力分析方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(6):1767-1771.Sun Yi,Shi Mo,Shan Baoguo,et al.Electric energy substitution potential analysis method based on particle swarm optimization support vector machine[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1767-1771(in Chinese).
[12]张博华.天津市电能替代项目综合效益评价研究[D].北京:华北电力学,2017.
[13]孙毅,许鹏,单葆国,等.售电侧改革背景下“互联网+”电能替代发展路线[J].电网技术,2016,40(12):3648-3654.Sun Yi,Xu Peng,Shan Baoguo,et al.Road map for“internet plus”energy substitution in electricity retail market reform in China[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(12):3648-3654(in Chinese).
[14]曾欢.京津冀农村地区电能替代的技术经济分析及政策研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2017.
[15]杜湘瑜.基于云模型的定性定量转换方法及其应用[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(4):772-776.Du Xiangyu,Qualitative quantitative transformation method based on cloud model and its application[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2008,30(4):772-776(in Chinese).
[16]任剑.基于云模型的语言随机多准则决策方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2012,18(12):2792-2797.Ren Jian.A method of random multi-criteria decision making based on cloud model[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2012,18(12):2792-2797(in Chinese).
[17]张勇,赵东宁,李德毅.相似云及其度量分析方法[J].信息与控制,2004,33(2):129-132.Zhang Yong,Zhao Dongning,Li Deyi.Similarity cloud and metric analysis methods[J].Information and Control,2004,33(2):129-132(in Chinese).
[18]徐士东.云模型与TOPSIS相结合的多属性群决策方法[J].计算机应用研究,2017,34(10):2964-2967.Xu Shidong.Multi-attribute group decision making method combining cloud model and TOPSIS[J].Computer Application Research,2017,34(10):2964-2967(in Chinese).
[19]张目,周宗放.一种基于联系度的改进TOPSIS法[J].系统工程,2008,26(8):102-107.Zhang Mu,Zhou Zongfang.An improved TOPSIS method based on connection degree[J].Systems Engineering,2008,26(8):102-107(in Chinese).
[20]韩国元,陈伟,冯志军.企业合作创新伙伴的选择研究--基于微粒群算法定权的改进TOPSIS法[J].科研管理,2014,35(2):119-126.Han Guoyuan,Chen Wei,Feng Zhijun.Research on the selection of enterprise cooperative innovation partners-improved TOPSIS method based on particle swarm optimization[J].Research Management,2014,35(2):119-126(in Chinese).