区域旱灾风险的灰色多阶段多指标评估方法
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摘要
考虑到区域旱灾风险的动态演变特征和评估指标信息"部分"未知的灰色不确定性特征,提出了一种基于区间灰数核与灰度的灰色多阶段多指标决策方法,并将其用于河南区域农业旱灾风险评估中。通过构造核序列与灰度序列,定义序列间的相对相似度关系,建立多目标优化模型以确定指标权重;基于灰熵序列与Orness测度构建优化模型以确定阶段权重、集结评估信息,并根据综合相对相似度值评估区域旱灾风险。结果表明,安阳地区春季最易发生旱灾,濮阳、商丘次之。该评估结果可为抗旱减灾工作提供依据。
Considering dynamic evolution characteristics of regional drought risk and the grey uncertainty characteristic of″part″ unknown evaluation index information,a grey multi-stage and multi-index decision-making method based on the kernel and grey level of interval grey number was proposed,and this method was applied to regional drought risk assessment of Henan. Firstly,the multi-objective optimization model was established to determine the index weight by constructing the sequences of kernel and grey level and defining the relative similarity relation between the sequences. Then,an optimization model was constructed based on the grey entropy sequence and Orness measure to determine stage weights. Finally,by aggregating evaluation information,the regional drought risk was evaluated according to the value of comprehensive relative similarity and comprehensive relative similarity value. The results show that drought is most likely to occur in spring in Anyang,followed by Puyang and Shangqiu. The evaluation results can provide a basis for drought resistance and disaster reduction.
Considering dynamic evolution characteristics of regional drought risk and the grey uncertainty characteristic of″part″ unknown evaluation index information,a grey multi-stage and multi-index decision-making method based on the kernel and grey level of interval grey number was proposed,and this method was applied to regional drought risk assessment of Henan. Firstly,the multi-objective optimization model was established to determine the index weight by constructing the sequences of kernel and grey level and defining the relative similarity relation between the sequences. Then,an optimization model was constructed based on the grey entropy sequence and Orness measure to determine stage weights. Finally,by aggregating evaluation information,the regional drought risk was evaluated according to the value of comprehensive relative similarity and comprehensive relative similarity value. The results show that drought is most likely to occur in spring in Anyang,followed by Puyang and Shangqiu. The evaluation results can provide a basis for drought resistance and disaster reduction.
引文
[1]金菊良,杨齐祺,周玉良,等.干旱分析技术的研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(2):1-15.
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[6]屈艳萍,高辉,吕娟,等.基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):908-917.
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[8]郭亮.葫芦岛市旱灾风险评价[J].水利规划与设计,2017(5):26-28.
[9]赵吴静,金菊良,张礼兵.随机模拟方法在地区干旱频率分析中的应用[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2007(1):1-4.
[10]郗蒙浩,赵秋红,姚忠.基于模糊理论的农业旱灾风险评估:以山西省阳泉市为例[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):153-158.
[11]罗党,刘敏.基于灰信息的黄河冰凌灾害风险评估模型[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):72-77,92.
[12]刘思峰,方志耕,谢乃明.基于核和灰度的区间灰数运算法则[J].系统工程与电子技术,2010,32(2):313-316.
[13]梁燕华,郭鹏,朱煜明,等.基于区间数的多时点多属性灰靶决策模型[J].控制与决策,2012,27(10):1527-1530,1536.
[14]刘中侠,刘思峰,方志耕.基于核与灰度的灰色综合关联贴近度决策模型[J].控制与决策,2017,32(8):1475-1480.
[15]闫书丽,刘思峰,朱建军,等.基于相对核和精确度的灰数排序方法[J].控制与决策,2014,29(2):315-319.
[16]罗党.三参数区间灰数信息下的决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(1):124-130.
[17]黄智力,罗键.不确定多指标决策问题的相对相似关系法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(11):2917-2924.
[18]郝晶晶,朱建军,刘思峰.基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(1):73-81.
[2]金菊良,郦建强,周玉良,等.旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架[J].灾害学,2014,29(3):1-10.
[3]李芬,于文金,张建新,等.干旱灾害评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):891-898.
[4] XU X,GE Q,ZHENG J,et al. Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of East China[J]. Natural hazards,2013,66(2):1257-1272.
[5]屈艳萍,郦建强,吕娟,等.旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术[J].水科学进展,2014,25(2):297-304.
[6]屈艳萍,高辉,吕娟,等.基于区域灾害系统论的中国农业旱灾风险评估[J].水利学报,2015,46(8):908-917.
[7] YUAN X C,TANG B J,WEI Y M,et al. China's regional drought risk under climate change:a two-stage process assessment approach[J]. Natural hazards,2015,76(1):667-684.
[8]郭亮.葫芦岛市旱灾风险评价[J].水利规划与设计,2017(5):26-28.
[9]赵吴静,金菊良,张礼兵.随机模拟方法在地区干旱频率分析中的应用[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2007(1):1-4.
[10]郗蒙浩,赵秋红,姚忠.基于模糊理论的农业旱灾风险评估:以山西省阳泉市为例[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):153-158.
[11]罗党,刘敏.基于灰信息的黄河冰凌灾害风险评估模型[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):72-77,92.
[12]刘思峰,方志耕,谢乃明.基于核和灰度的区间灰数运算法则[J].系统工程与电子技术,2010,32(2):313-316.
[13]梁燕华,郭鹏,朱煜明,等.基于区间数的多时点多属性灰靶决策模型[J].控制与决策,2012,27(10):1527-1530,1536.
[14]刘中侠,刘思峰,方志耕.基于核与灰度的灰色综合关联贴近度决策模型[J].控制与决策,2017,32(8):1475-1480.
[15]闫书丽,刘思峰,朱建军,等.基于相对核和精确度的灰数排序方法[J].控制与决策,2014,29(2):315-319.
[16]罗党.三参数区间灰数信息下的决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(1):124-130.
[17]黄智力,罗键.不确定多指标决策问题的相对相似关系法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(11):2917-2924.
[18]郝晶晶,朱建军,刘思峰.基于前景理论的多阶段随机多准则决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(1):73-81.