基于HEC-HMS的小流域山洪雨量预警
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摘要
山洪灾害频发严重威胁着人民生命财产安全,山洪灾害预警指标分析对山洪灾害的防治意义重大。基于HEC-HMS模型,该研究选用雨量预警指标,综合考虑土壤含水量、汇流时间等,由曼宁公式建立水位流量关系,由模型试算法反推临界雨量,进而确定不同土壤干湿(较干,一般,较湿)情况下的雨量预警指标阈值,并检验复核,分析误差来源。结果表明:从偏离度分析,部分临界雨量偏离度小于10%,预警指标的部分合理;从频率区间分析,特征雨量与临界雨量大多位于同一频率区间,预警指标基本合理。为缺乏水文资料的山丘区有效防治山洪灾害提供了参考,在无更精确方法时,可用此方法获取雨量预警指标。
The frequent occurrence of mountain flood disasters has threatened people's life and property seriously,so an analysis of early warning index is of great importance to the prevention and control of mountain torrents. Based on HEC-HMS model,choosing the rainfall early warning index and considering synthetically the soil moisture content,confluence time,etc,the relationship between water level and discharge is inferred by Manning formula. And the model trial method is used to deduce the critical rainfall values. The threshold values of early warning index under different soil moisture content conditions( dry,general,wet) can be determined,checked and verified,then error sources are analyzed. The results show that some of deviation degree values are less than 10%,which is reasonable. The characteristic rainfall and the critical rainfall are chiefly in the same frequency range,which means that the indicators are basically reasonable. For those floodprone hilly areas void of hydrological data,this paper provides a reference for the effective prevention and control of mountain flood disasters.And this method can be used to get rainfall early warning index,when there's no more precise method.
The frequent occurrence of mountain flood disasters has threatened people's life and property seriously,so an analysis of early warning index is of great importance to the prevention and control of mountain torrents. Based on HEC-HMS model,choosing the rainfall early warning index and considering synthetically the soil moisture content,confluence time,etc,the relationship between water level and discharge is inferred by Manning formula. And the model trial method is used to deduce the critical rainfall values. The threshold values of early warning index under different soil moisture content conditions( dry,general,wet) can be determined,checked and verified,then error sources are analyzed. The results show that some of deviation degree values are less than 10%,which is reasonable. The characteristic rainfall and the critical rainfall are chiefly in the same frequency range,which means that the indicators are basically reasonable. For those floodprone hilly areas void of hydrological data,this paper provides a reference for the effective prevention and control of mountain flood disasters.And this method can be used to get rainfall early warning index,when there's no more precise method.
引文
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[2]曲晓波,张涛,刘鑫华,等.舟曲“8.8”特大山洪泥石流灾害气象成因分析[J].气象,2010,36(10):102-105.
[3]李红霞,覃光华,王欣,等.山洪预报预警技术研究进展[J].水文,2014,34(5):12-16.
[4]刘志雨.山洪预警预报技术研究与应用[J].中国防汛抗旱,2012,22(2):41-45,50.
[5]郭良,唐学哲,孔凡哲.基于分布式水文模型的山洪灾害预警预报系统研究及应用[J].中国水利,2007(14):38-41.
[6]叶金印,李致家,吴勇拓.一种用于缺资料地区山洪预警方法研究与应用[J].水力发电学报,2013,32(3):15-19,33.
[7]李昌志,孙东亚.山洪灾害预警指标确定方法[J].中国水利,2012(9):54-56.
[8]HAPUARACHCHI H A P,WANG Q J,PAGANO T C.A review of advances in flash flood forecasting[J].Hydrological Processes,2011,25(18):2 771-2 784.
[9]张阳阳,刘攀,江焱生,等.基于河道控制断面选取的山洪成灾流量修正[J].人民长江,2016,47(15):1-4,18.
[10]程为帅.山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):901-908.
[11]全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室.全国山洪灾害防治规划山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算细则(试行)[S].北京:全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室,2003.
[12]李苏,代圣康,刘冬冬.基于临界雨量的预警指标分析研究[J].人民珠江,2018,39(5):24-28.
[13]田野.本溪县山洪灾害雨量预警方法研究[J].水利规划与设计,2017(5):66-69.
[14]JOO J,KJELDSEN T,KIM H J,et al.A comparison of two eventbased flood models(Re FH-rainfall runoff model and HEC-HMS)at two Korean catchments,Bukil and Jeungpyeong[J].Ksce Journal of Civil Engineering,2014,18(1):330-343.
[15]MARSIK M,WAYLEN P.An application of the distributed hydrologic model CASC2D to a tropical montane watershed[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,330(3):481-495.
[16]MCCOLL C,AGGETT G.Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2006,84(4):494-512.
[17]李燕,陈孝田,朱朝霞.HEC-HMS在洪水预报中的应用研究[J].人民黄河,2008(4):23-24.
[18]张凌,廖承伟.山洪灾害监测预警系统[J].水利科技,2010(4):58-60.
[19]赵然杭,王敏,陆小蕾.山洪灾害雨量预警指标确定方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(9):49-53.
[20]叶勇.浙江省小流域山洪灾害与预警技术研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.