基于灰色关联分析的露天矿风险耦合机理模型研究
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摘要
通过对某超大型露天煤矿108例事故通报的诱发过程分析,发现现场出现的扰动与被诱导出人的行为存在着交互耦合关系,这种耦合一旦形成极易激活生产事故。进一步将事故中的直接诱发因素梳理构建了评价二者耦合度的指标体系,运用灰色关联分析的基本思想,提出了测量二者风险耦合度的模型并计算出耦合度。计算结果显示:现场的扰动与被诱导出人的错误行为耦合关系是紧密关联的;加强现场生产的标准化管理或强化人的主动安全认知能力是避免生产事故的重要途径。
Based on the analysis of 108 accidents in a large open pit mine, it is found that there is an interaction coupling relationship between the disturbance and the induced human behavior at the scene. Once the coupling is formed, it is easy to activate production accidents. By combing the direct factors in the accident, the index system of evaluating the coupling degree of the two parties is constructed. By using the basic idea of grey relational analysis, a model is proposed to measure the coupling degree of the two risks and calculate the coupling degree. The calculation results show that the coupling relationship between field disturbance and human error behavior is closely related. Strengthening the standardized management of field production or enhancing the active safety cognitive ability of human is an important way to avoid accidents.
Based on the analysis of 108 accidents in a large open pit mine, it is found that there is an interaction coupling relationship between the disturbance and the induced human behavior at the scene. Once the coupling is formed, it is easy to activate production accidents. By combing the direct factors in the accident, the index system of evaluating the coupling degree of the two parties is constructed. By using the basic idea of grey relational analysis, a model is proposed to measure the coupling degree of the two risks and calculate the coupling degree. The calculation results show that the coupling relationship between field disturbance and human error behavior is closely related. Strengthening the standardized management of field production or enhancing the active safety cognitive ability of human is an important way to avoid accidents.
引文
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[2]梁昆仑,陈天猛.中小型露天矿生产方面存在的主要问题[J].矿业工程,2012(4):57-58.
[3]刘维玉,牛庆,邵宾.基于AHP的平朔东露天矿作业环境安全评价[J].露天采矿技术,2012(2):79-84.
[4]鲁明娟,朱明,唐瑞,等,露天铁矿采场安全评价模型[J].河北理工大学学报(自然科学版),2010,32(11):6-11.
[5]宋守信.电力安全人因管理[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[6]李新春,韩继磊,乔万贯.煤矿事故风险因子耦合机理研究[J].煤矿安全,2015,46(8):240-242.
[7]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析[J].地理学报,2005,60(3):238.
[8]王晓红,张宝生.基于灰色关联分析的网络能力与知识流动能力的耦合度研究[J].科技进步与对策,2011,28(5):126-131.
[9]耿雪,黄满红,冯永求,等,综合类工业园经济与生态环境的耦合性分析[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(1):197-200.
[10]梁宁建.当代认知心理学[M].北京:上海教育出版社,2003.