基于改进熵权与灰色模糊理论的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评价研究
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摘要
针对城市轨道交通PPP项目风险繁多复杂等特点,为保障PPP项目的成功实施,提出基于改进熵权灰色模糊理论的风险评价方法。首先,考虑风险动态性特征,采用Delphi法对城市轨道交通PPP项目全生命周期风险按阶段进行有效识别,建立相应的风险指标体系;其次,通过灰色聚类与模糊综合评判法相结合构建城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评价模型,利用灰色白化权函数实现风险指标信息的透明化,借助模糊理论计算风险综合评价值,判断项目风险等级,并采用改进熵权法与层次分析法相结合的方法确定主客观权重;最后,将模型应用于青岛地铁3号线实际案例中。研究结果表明该项目风险等级为"中等",评价模型具有合理性与有效性,同时提出相应的风险应对措施。
The PPP projects of urban rail transit are always characterized by multiple complex risks. Hence,in order to guarantee the successful implementation of PPP projects,the risk assessment method based on improved entropy weight and grey fuzzy theory is proposed. Firstly,the risk dynamic characteristics are considered,the Delphi method is used to identify the whole life cycle risk of the urban rail PPP project and the corresponding risk index system is established.And then the risk assessment model for urban rail transit PPP project is established by grey clustering combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; the risk index information transparency is realized by grey whitenized weight function; the comprehensive risk assessment value is calculated by fuzzy theory to determine the risk level of the project;and the subjective and objective weights are determined by improved entropy weight method combined with analytic hierarchy process. Finally,the model is applied to Qingdao Metro Line 3. The results show that the project risk level belongs to " medium"; and the model is rational and efficient; some corresponding countermeasures for risks are proposed too.
The PPP projects of urban rail transit are always characterized by multiple complex risks. Hence,in order to guarantee the successful implementation of PPP projects,the risk assessment method based on improved entropy weight and grey fuzzy theory is proposed. Firstly,the risk dynamic characteristics are considered,the Delphi method is used to identify the whole life cycle risk of the urban rail PPP project and the corresponding risk index system is established.And then the risk assessment model for urban rail transit PPP project is established by grey clustering combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; the risk index information transparency is realized by grey whitenized weight function; the comprehensive risk assessment value is calculated by fuzzy theory to determine the risk level of the project;and the subjective and objective weights are determined by improved entropy weight method combined with analytic hierarchy process. Finally,the model is applied to Qingdao Metro Line 3. The results show that the project risk level belongs to " medium"; and the model is rational and efficient; some corresponding countermeasures for risks are proposed too.
引文
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[2]THOMASCTAL A V,SATYANARAYANA.Modeling and assessment of critical risks in BOT road projects[J].Construction Management and Econonmics,2006,24(4):407.
[3]ERNEST E A,ALBERT P C.Indentifying public partnership(PPP)risks in managing water supply projects in China[J].Journal of Facilities Management,2013,11(2):152.
[4]赵磊,屠文娟.集成FAHP\FCE的中国PPP项目风险评价[J].科技管理研究,2011(2):80.ZHAO Lei,TU Wenjuan.Risk assessment of China's PPP projects based on integration of FAHP and FCE[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2011(2):80.
[5]宋博,武瑞娟,牛发阳.基于OWA与灰色聚类的城市轨道交通PPP融资风险评价方法研究[J].隧道建设,2017,37(4):435.SONG Bo,WU Ruijuan,NIU Fayang.Research on risk evaluation method of PPP financing mode for urban rail transit based on OWA and grey clustering method[J].Tunnel Construction,2017,37(4):435.
[6]冯辉红,魏晶晶,杨可,等.熵权-模糊评价法在BT公路项目风险评价中的应用研究[J].公路,2016,61(1):170.FENG Huihong,WEI Jingjing,YANG Ke,et al.Entropy weight-fuzzy evaluation method applied to risk assessment of BT road project[J].Highway,2016,61(1):170.
[7]高云莉,李宏男,张国军.基于合作的工程项目风险动态模糊评价[J].大连理工大学学报,2010,50(3):404.GAO Yunli,LI Hongnan,ZHANG Guojun.Dynamic fuzzy evaluation of construction project risk based on collaboration[J].Journal of Dalian University of Technology,2010,50(3):404.
[8]胡芳,刘志华,李树丞.基于熵权法和VIKOR法的公共工程项目风险评价研究[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2012,39(4):83.HU Fang,LIU Zhihua,LI Shucheng.Research on the risk appraisal of public project based on entropy method and VIKOR method[J].Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences),2012,39(4):83.
[9]李强,韩俊涛,王永成,等.基于层次分析法的铁路PPP项目风险评价[J].铁道运输与经济,2017,39(10):7.LI Qiang,HAN Juntao,WANG Yongcheng,et al.Risk evaluation of railway PPP project based on AHP[J].Railway Transport and Economy,2017,39(10):7.
[10]陈斌,王蕾,刘群英.基于AHP-熵值法的PPP项目风险评价模型研究[J].工程管理学报,2017,31(2):126.CHEN Bin,WANG Lei,LIU Qunying.Modle research on risk evaluation of PPP project based on AHP-entropy method[J].Journal of Engineering Management,2017,31(2):126.
[11]李妍,赵蕾.新型城镇化背景下的PPP项目风险评价体系的构建——以上海莘庄CCHP项目为例[J].经济体制改革,2015(5):17.LI Yan,ZHAO Lei.Construction of PPP project risk assessment system under background of urbanization:A case study of Haixinzhuang CCHP Project[J].Reform of Economic System,2015(5):17.
[12]张璞,王丽萍,李荣波.基于相对风险模型的公私合作项目风险评价研究[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016(11):3.ZAHNG Pu,WANG Liping,LI Rongbo.RRM-based research on risk assessment of PPP project[J].Technoeconomics&Management Research,2016(11):3.
[13]乌云娜,胡新亮,张思维.基于ISM-HHM方法的PPP项目风险识别[J].土木工程与管理学报,2013,30(1):67.WU Yunna,HU Xinliang,ZHANG Siwei.Risk identification of public-private-partnership project based on ISM-HHM method[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,2013,30(1):67.
[14]LI B.Risk management of construction public private partnership projects[D].Glasgow:Glasgow Caledonian University,2003.
[15]刘维庆,邓少波,顼志芬.城市轨道交通项目融资风险动态评价[J].系统工程,2016,34(12):153.LIU Weiqing,DENG Shaobo,XU Zhifen.Dynamic evaluation of financing risk of urban rail transit project[J].Systems Engineering,2016,34(12):153.
[16]赵辉,董骅,屈微璐.构建基于改进系统动力学的环保PPP项目风险动态评价体系[J].财会月刊,2017(27):65.ZHAO Hui,DONG Hua,QU Weilu.Dynamic evaluation system of environmental PPP project based on improved system dynamics[J].The Accounting Issue,2017(27):65.
[17]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].3版.北京:科学出版社,2004:104.LIU Sifeng,DANG Yaoguo,FANG Zhigeng,et al.Grey system theory and its application[M].3rd Edition.Beijing:Science Press,2004:104.
[18]周惠成,张改红,王国利.基于熵权的水库防洪调度多目标决策方法及应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(1):100.ZHOU Huicheng,ZHANG Gaihong,WANG Guoli.Multiobjective decision making approach based on entropy weights for reservoir flood control operation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(1):100.