基于模糊集与改进证据理论的深基坑施工风险评价
|
摘要
针对深基坑施工风险评价过程中专家评价意见的主观性与不确定性问题,提出了一种将模糊集与D-S证据理论相结合的风险评价方法。首先,基于深基坑主要施工过程建立了风险评价指标体系;然后,构建了基于改进D-S证据理论的深基坑施工风险评价模型,进而利用COWA算子对各个指标进行赋权,根据高斯隶属度函数确定各风险要素评价意见隶属于不同风险等级的程度,并将其作为mass函数,通过基于矩阵分析与权值分配的融合算法合成多位专家的评价意见,采用线性加权法合成各指标mass函数;最后通过实例分析验证了该方法的适用性与有效性。该方法分析了不完全信息下的深基坑施工风险程度,为后续施工过程的风险控制提供有益参考。
For the subjectivity and uncertainty of expert evaluation in risk assessment for deep excavation engineering construction,a risk assessment method on the basis of fuzzy set theory and D-S evidence theory is proposed. Firstly,the risk assessment index system is established based on the main construction process of deep excavation. Then,the risk assessment model of deep excavation construction in the light of the improved D-S evidence theory is established. In the assessment model,the weight of each index is determined by using the COWA operator. As mass function of evidence theory,the degree of expert evaluation belonging to various levels through Gauss membership function is calculated. Based on matrix analysis and weight distribution to synthesize views of some experts,the index mass functions are fused by the linear weighted method. Finally,an example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the method. This method analyzes the risk degree of deep excavation engineering construction under incomplete information, and provides a useful reference for risk control in subsequent construction process.
For the subjectivity and uncertainty of expert evaluation in risk assessment for deep excavation engineering construction,a risk assessment method on the basis of fuzzy set theory and D-S evidence theory is proposed. Firstly,the risk assessment index system is established based on the main construction process of deep excavation. Then,the risk assessment model of deep excavation construction in the light of the improved D-S evidence theory is established. In the assessment model,the weight of each index is determined by using the COWA operator. As mass function of evidence theory,the degree of expert evaluation belonging to various levels through Gauss membership function is calculated. Based on matrix analysis and weight distribution to synthesize views of some experts,the index mass functions are fused by the linear weighted method. Finally,an example is given to illustrate the applicability and effectiveness of the method. This method analyzes the risk degree of deep excavation engineering construction under incomplete information, and provides a useful reference for risk control in subsequent construction process.
引文
[1]边亦海,黄宏伟,李剑.可信性方法在深基坑施工期风险分析中的应用[J].地下空间与工程学,2006,2(1):70-73.
[2]黄宏伟,边亦海.深基坑工程施工中的风险管理[J].地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(4):611-614.
[3]王鸣晓.模糊综合评判法在基坑工程风险评估中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(6):57-61.
[4]何锡兴,周红波,姚浩.上海某深基坑工程风险识别与模糊评估[J].岩土工程学报,2006,(s1):1912-1915.
[5]兰守奇,张庆贺.基于模糊理论的深基坑施工期风险评估[J].岩土工程学报,2009,31(4):648-652.
[6]杜修力,张雪峰,张明聚,等.基于证据理论的深基坑工程施工风险综合评价[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):155-161.
[7]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets[J].Information and Control,1965,8(3):338-353.
[8]张清华,王进,王国胤.粗糙模糊集的近似表示[J].计算机学报,2015,38(7):1484-1496.
[9]Shafer G.A Mathematical Theory of Evidence[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,1976.
[10]Yager R R.Families of OWA operators[J].Fuzzy Sets and System,1993,59(2):125-148.
[11]申建红,张云华,张胜昔.基于G-COWA的工程项目界面风险评价[J].土木工程与管理学报,2016,33(3):16-21.
[12]徐泽水.拓展的C-OWA算子及其在不确定多属性决策中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(11):7-13.
[13]向阳,史习智.证据理论合成规则的一点修正[J].上海交通大学学报,1999,33(3):357-360.
[14]王姣,范科峰,莫玮.基于模糊集和DS证据理论的信息安全风险评估方法[J].计算机应用研究,2017,34(11):3432-3436.
[15]奚婷婷.多传感器数据融合中DS证据理论算法的改进与应用[D].无锡:江南大学,2009.
[2]黄宏伟,边亦海.深基坑工程施工中的风险管理[J].地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(4):611-614.
[3]王鸣晓.模糊综合评判法在基坑工程风险评估中的应用[J].公路交通科技,2011,28(6):57-61.
[4]何锡兴,周红波,姚浩.上海某深基坑工程风险识别与模糊评估[J].岩土工程学报,2006,(s1):1912-1915.
[5]兰守奇,张庆贺.基于模糊理论的深基坑施工期风险评估[J].岩土工程学报,2009,31(4):648-652.
[6]杜修力,张雪峰,张明聚,等.基于证据理论的深基坑工程施工风险综合评价[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):155-161.
[7]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets[J].Information and Control,1965,8(3):338-353.
[8]张清华,王进,王国胤.粗糙模糊集的近似表示[J].计算机学报,2015,38(7):1484-1496.
[9]Shafer G.A Mathematical Theory of Evidence[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,1976.
[10]Yager R R.Families of OWA operators[J].Fuzzy Sets and System,1993,59(2):125-148.
[11]申建红,张云华,张胜昔.基于G-COWA的工程项目界面风险评价[J].土木工程与管理学报,2016,33(3):16-21.
[12]徐泽水.拓展的C-OWA算子及其在不确定多属性决策中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(11):7-13.
[13]向阳,史习智.证据理论合成规则的一点修正[J].上海交通大学学报,1999,33(3):357-360.
[14]王姣,范科峰,莫玮.基于模糊集和DS证据理论的信息安全风险评估方法[J].计算机应用研究,2017,34(11):3432-3436.
[15]奚婷婷.多传感器数据融合中DS证据理论算法的改进与应用[D].无锡:江南大学,2009.