经济新常态下我国企业境外融资结构及影响因素研究
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摘要
当前我国经济面临下行风险,货币利率未见放松,流动性预期紧张,尤其是债券市场悲观情绪浓烈,步入震荡调整期。在此背景下,合理利用境外债券市场融资能够增强企业融资灵活性,加强关键时点流动性管理。在分析美国债券的发行主体、利率结构、币种结构及期限特征基础上,建议相关企业发债资金以境外投资为主,境内投资为辅,并且利用外汇期权、外汇掉期等工具对冲汇率波动风险。同时,建立汇率监测机制,密切关注境外资金回流情况,防止出现久期错配引发流动性危机,降低债权人信用违约概率,最大限度降低外汇波动风险。
Chinese economy is facing the downside risk,currency rates are still high,the liquidity is expected to be tight,and especially bond market is stepping into the phrase of adjustment with intensive pessimism mood.Under this background,the reasonable use foreign bond markets can enhance the corporate financing flexibility and strengthen the key point of liquidity management.Based on analyzing the international bond issuers,interest rate structure,currency structure and the characteristics of period,it is suggested that the relevant enterprises' bond issuing funds should be dominated by overseas investment,supplemented by domestic investment,and by using foreign exchange options,foreign exchange swaps and other tools to hedge the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.Meanwhile,it is necessary to establish the exchange rate mechanism,pay close attention to foreign capital flow,prevent duration mismatch and liquidity crisis,reduce the creditor credit default probability and reduce the fluctuation of foreign exchange risk.
Chinese economy is facing the downside risk,currency rates are still high,the liquidity is expected to be tight,and especially bond market is stepping into the phrase of adjustment with intensive pessimism mood.Under this background,the reasonable use foreign bond markets can enhance the corporate financing flexibility and strengthen the key point of liquidity management.Based on analyzing the international bond issuers,interest rate structure,currency structure and the characteristics of period,it is suggested that the relevant enterprises' bond issuing funds should be dominated by overseas investment,supplemented by domestic investment,and by using foreign exchange options,foreign exchange swaps and other tools to hedge the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.Meanwhile,it is necessary to establish the exchange rate mechanism,pay close attention to foreign capital flow,prevent duration mismatch and liquidity crisis,reduce the creditor credit default probability and reduce the fluctuation of foreign exchange risk.
引文
[1]史永东,丁伟,袁绍锋.市场互联,风险溢出与金融稳定---基于股票市场与债券市场溢出效应分析的视角[J].金融研究,2013(3):170-180.
[2]王璐,庞皓.中国股市和债市波动的溢出效应---基于交易所和银行间市场的实证研究[J].金融论坛,2008(4):9-13.
[3]殷剑峰.中国金融市场联动分析:2000-2004[J].世界经济,2006,29(1):50-60.
[4]张信东.我国可转换债券市场弱式效能的分析[J].中国软科学,2005(3):145-l49.
[5]Barr D G,Priestley R.Expected returns,risk and the integration of international bond markets[J].Journal of International money and finance,2004,23(1):71-97.
[6]Christiansen C.Volatility‐spillover effects in European bond markets[J].European Financial Management,2007,13(5):923-948.
[7]Geyer A,Kossmeier S,Pichler S.Measuring systematic risk in EMUgovernment yield spreads[J].Review of Finance,2004,8(2):171-197.
[8]Lin C L,Wang M C,Gau Y F.Expected risk and excess returns predictability in emerging bond markets[J].Applied Economics,2007,39(12):1511-1529.
[9]Mishkin,Frederic S.,et al."Financial Policies."Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies[M].University of Chicago Press,2003:93-154.
(1)数据来源:国家外汇管理局。
[2]王璐,庞皓.中国股市和债市波动的溢出效应---基于交易所和银行间市场的实证研究[J].金融论坛,2008(4):9-13.
[3]殷剑峰.中国金融市场联动分析:2000-2004[J].世界经济,2006,29(1):50-60.
[4]张信东.我国可转换债券市场弱式效能的分析[J].中国软科学,2005(3):145-l49.
[5]Barr D G,Priestley R.Expected returns,risk and the integration of international bond markets[J].Journal of International money and finance,2004,23(1):71-97.
[6]Christiansen C.Volatility‐spillover effects in European bond markets[J].European Financial Management,2007,13(5):923-948.
[7]Geyer A,Kossmeier S,Pichler S.Measuring systematic risk in EMUgovernment yield spreads[J].Review of Finance,2004,8(2):171-197.
[8]Lin C L,Wang M C,Gau Y F.Expected risk and excess returns predictability in emerging bond markets[J].Applied Economics,2007,39(12):1511-1529.
[9]Mishkin,Frederic S.,et al."Financial Policies."Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies[M].University of Chicago Press,2003:93-154.
(1)数据来源:国家外汇管理局。