亚洲巨灾划分研究
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摘要
自然灾害等级评估是灾后应急和救援工作的重要内容之一,它可以以一种简单明了的方式反映灾害的严重程度。文中搜集整理了亚洲地区近百年来(1900—2011年)自然灾害历史数据,对自然灾害等级划分方法进行了研究。研究了巨灾、受影响人口的定义,探索巨灾等级划分依据,提出利用死亡人口、直接经济损失、受影响人口3个要素的对数和的计算方法进行巨灾划分。经过计算,得到54个>10.0、102个>9.0、178个>8.0的大灾案例。经与多个灾害数据库反复对比后,可以确认一般意义上的亚洲区域巨灾的分级计算结果都>8.0。因此,将分级计算结果>8.0的灾害定义为巨灾。该计算方法方便、简洁,适宜用于比较亚洲国家不同区域不同自然灾害类型的损失程度。
The hazard grade assessment,which simply and clearly reveals how big the damage is,is an important part of emergency response and rescue work after disaster. Upon collection and sorting out of the data on Asian natural disasters occurring between 1900 and 2011,this paper studies the method of classifying those disasters. After discussing the definition of catastrophe and that of earthquake-affected population and exploring the basis on which catastrophe could be classified,this paper comes up with a formula,in which the logarithms of three factors,death toll,direct economic loss and quake-affected population,are summed up. Then,Asian catastrophes are classified by the formula. The calculation based on the formula shows that the results of 54 of all the disasters are above 10.0,102 above 9.0 and 178 above 8.0.After repeated comparison with data from several other disaster databases,it is concluded that the result achieved by the formula of the disaster which is generally considered as a catastrophe,is above 8.0.Therefore,a disaster with a result above 8.0 is defined as a catastrophe. The formula mentioned above in this paper is simple and convenient,and is suitable for making a comparison of the damage caused by the disasters of different types in different regions in Asia.
The hazard grade assessment,which simply and clearly reveals how big the damage is,is an important part of emergency response and rescue work after disaster. Upon collection and sorting out of the data on Asian natural disasters occurring between 1900 and 2011,this paper studies the method of classifying those disasters. After discussing the definition of catastrophe and that of earthquake-affected population and exploring the basis on which catastrophe could be classified,this paper comes up with a formula,in which the logarithms of three factors,death toll,direct economic loss and quake-affected population,are summed up. Then,Asian catastrophes are classified by the formula. The calculation based on the formula shows that the results of 54 of all the disasters are above 10.0,102 above 9.0 and 178 above 8.0.After repeated comparison with data from several other disaster databases,it is concluded that the result achieved by the formula of the disaster which is generally considered as a catastrophe,is above 8.0.Therefore,a disaster with a result above 8.0 is defined as a catastrophe. The formula mentioned above in this paper is simple and convenient,and is suitable for making a comparison of the damage caused by the disasters of different types in different regions in Asia.
引文
代博洋,李志强,李晓丽.2009.基于物元理论的自然灾害损失等级划分方法[J].灾害学,24(1):1—5.DAI Bo-yang,LI Zhi-qiang,LI Xiao-li.2009.A method of classing natural disaster loss based on matter-element theory[J].Journal of Catastrophology,24(1):1—5(in Chinese).
冯利华.1993.灾害损失的定量计算[J].灾害学,8(2):17—20.FENG Li-hua.1993.Quantitative calculation of disaster loss[J].Journal of Catastrophology,8(2):17—20(in Chi-nese).
冯利华.2000.灾害等级研究进展[J].灾害学,15(3):72—76.FENG Li-hua.2000.Development in research of disaster grade[J].Journal of Catastrophology,15(3):72—76(inChinese).
冯利华,骆高远.1996.洪水等级和灾情划分问题[J].自然灾害学报,5(3):89—91.FENG Li-hua,LUO Gao-Yuan.1996.The classification of flood grade and disaster degree[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,5(3):89—91(in Chinese).
冯志泽.1994.地震灾害损失评估及灾害等级划分[J].灾害学,9(1):13—16.FENG Zhi-ze.1994.Loss Evaluation of Earthquake Disaster and Classification of the Disaster Grade[J].Journal ofCatastrophology,9(1):13—16(in Chinese).
高建国.2008.灾害对社会影响和损失大小的一个可量化值[J].中国人口资源与环境,(18):588—590.GAO Jian-guo.2008.A quantitative value of the disasters on the social impact and the size of loss[J].China Popula-tion Resources and Environment,(18):588—590(in Chinese).
高庆华等编著.1997.自然灾害灾情统计标准化研究[M].北京:海洋出版社.GAO Qing-hua,et al.1997.Researches on Natural Disaster statistics Standardization[M].China Ocean Press,Bei-jing(in Chinese).
马宗晋,李闽峰.1990.自然灾害评估、灾度和对策[A].见:中国减轻自然灾害研究.全国减轻自然灾害研究讨论会论文集.北京:中国科学技术出版社.MA Zong-jin,LI Min-feng.1990.Natural Disaster Evaluation,Disaster Magnitude and Strategy[A].In:China Nat-ural Disaster Reduction Research,Collection of National Natural Disaster Reduction Research.Chinese Scienceand Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
任鲁川.1996.灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度差别法[J].自然灾害学报,5(3):13—17.REN Lu-chuan.1996.The measurement method of fuzzy disaster degree for classification of disaster loss[J].Journalof Natural Disasters,5(3):13—17(in Chinese).
徐敬海,聂高众,李志强,等.2012.基于灾度的亚洲巨灾划分标准研究[J].自然灾害学报,21(3):64—69.XU Jing-hai,NIE Gao-zhong,LI Zhi-qiang,et al.2012.Disaster magnitude-based Asian catastrophe criterion for classi-fication[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,21(3):64—69(in Chinese).
于庆东.1993.灾度等级判别方法的局限性及其改进[J].自然灾害学报,2(2):8—11.YU Qing-dong.1993.The limitation and improvement of the method of disaster situation grade measurement[J].Jour-nal of Natural Disasters,2(2):8—11(in Chinese).
赵阿兴,马宗晋.1993.自然灾害损失评估指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2(3):1—6.ZHAO A-xing,MA Zong-jin.1993.Appraising study for the loss evaluation system of natural disasters[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2(3):1—6(in Chinese).
张传芳,杨春玲.2007.基于属性区间识别理论的灾害损失等级划分[J].数学的实践和认识,37(2):61—66.ZHANG Chuan-fang,YANG Chun-ling.2007.Classification of Disaster Loss Based9n the Attribute Interval Recogni-tion Theory[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,37(2):61—66(in Chinese).
Bates F L,Walter G P.1987.Disasters and Social Change[J].Sociology of Disasters,291—331.
Mohamed Gad-el-Hak.2008.Large-Scale Disasters:Prediction,Control,and Mitigation[M].Cambridge UniversityPress.
Wright J D,Peter H R,Sonia R W,et al.1979.After the Clean-Up:Long-Range Effects of Natural Disasters[M].Sage Publications,California.
冯利华.1993.灾害损失的定量计算[J].灾害学,8(2):17—20.FENG Li-hua.1993.Quantitative calculation of disaster loss[J].Journal of Catastrophology,8(2):17—20(in Chi-nese).
冯利华.2000.灾害等级研究进展[J].灾害学,15(3):72—76.FENG Li-hua.2000.Development in research of disaster grade[J].Journal of Catastrophology,15(3):72—76(inChinese).
冯利华,骆高远.1996.洪水等级和灾情划分问题[J].自然灾害学报,5(3):89—91.FENG Li-hua,LUO Gao-Yuan.1996.The classification of flood grade and disaster degree[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,5(3):89—91(in Chinese).
冯志泽.1994.地震灾害损失评估及灾害等级划分[J].灾害学,9(1):13—16.FENG Zhi-ze.1994.Loss Evaluation of Earthquake Disaster and Classification of the Disaster Grade[J].Journal ofCatastrophology,9(1):13—16(in Chinese).
高建国.2008.灾害对社会影响和损失大小的一个可量化值[J].中国人口资源与环境,(18):588—590.GAO Jian-guo.2008.A quantitative value of the disasters on the social impact and the size of loss[J].China Popula-tion Resources and Environment,(18):588—590(in Chinese).
高庆华等编著.1997.自然灾害灾情统计标准化研究[M].北京:海洋出版社.GAO Qing-hua,et al.1997.Researches on Natural Disaster statistics Standardization[M].China Ocean Press,Bei-jing(in Chinese).
马宗晋,李闽峰.1990.自然灾害评估、灾度和对策[A].见:中国减轻自然灾害研究.全国减轻自然灾害研究讨论会论文集.北京:中国科学技术出版社.MA Zong-jin,LI Min-feng.1990.Natural Disaster Evaluation,Disaster Magnitude and Strategy[A].In:China Nat-ural Disaster Reduction Research,Collection of National Natural Disaster Reduction Research.Chinese Scienceand Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
任鲁川.1996.灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度差别法[J].自然灾害学报,5(3):13—17.REN Lu-chuan.1996.The measurement method of fuzzy disaster degree for classification of disaster loss[J].Journalof Natural Disasters,5(3):13—17(in Chinese).
徐敬海,聂高众,李志强,等.2012.基于灾度的亚洲巨灾划分标准研究[J].自然灾害学报,21(3):64—69.XU Jing-hai,NIE Gao-zhong,LI Zhi-qiang,et al.2012.Disaster magnitude-based Asian catastrophe criterion for classi-fication[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,21(3):64—69(in Chinese).
于庆东.1993.灾度等级判别方法的局限性及其改进[J].自然灾害学报,2(2):8—11.YU Qing-dong.1993.The limitation and improvement of the method of disaster situation grade measurement[J].Jour-nal of Natural Disasters,2(2):8—11(in Chinese).
赵阿兴,马宗晋.1993.自然灾害损失评估指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2(3):1—6.ZHAO A-xing,MA Zong-jin.1993.Appraising study for the loss evaluation system of natural disasters[J].Journal ofNatural Disasters,2(3):1—6(in Chinese).
张传芳,杨春玲.2007.基于属性区间识别理论的灾害损失等级划分[J].数学的实践和认识,37(2):61—66.ZHANG Chuan-fang,YANG Chun-ling.2007.Classification of Disaster Loss Based9n the Attribute Interval Recogni-tion Theory[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,37(2):61—66(in Chinese).
Bates F L,Walter G P.1987.Disasters and Social Change[J].Sociology of Disasters,291—331.
Mohamed Gad-el-Hak.2008.Large-Scale Disasters:Prediction,Control,and Mitigation[M].Cambridge UniversityPress.
Wright J D,Peter H R,Sonia R W,et al.1979.After the Clean-Up:Long-Range Effects of Natural Disasters[M].Sage Publications,California.