极端外部环境下输电线路的综合风险评估方法
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摘要
针对极端外部环境易引发的巨型停电灾难的问题,提出输电线路的综合风险评估方法。首先采用多维云模型理论,建立极端外部环境下输电线路的综合故障率预测模型;其次,根据预测的故障率,从输电线路自身损失、人身环境损失、社会损失和系统安全损失这4个方面建立一种输电线路的综合风险评估体系;最后,根据电力事故事件调查规程对所建立的综合风险评估体系进行量化评分,并利用贵州电网实例进行验证。算例仿真表明:所建立的输电线路的综合风险评估体系具有良好的实用性、可操作性,而且便于评估。
In order to solve the problem of giant blackout disasters that are easily caused by extreme external environment, a integrated risk assessment for transmission lines is proposed. Firstly, a comprehensive prediction model for failure rate of transmission line is established on the basis of the Multidimensional Could Model. Then, the failure rate of transmission line can be accurately forecasted by analyzing the normal distribution of cloud droplets generated by state assessment data of transmission line. Secondly, an integrated risk assessment system of transmission line is established from four aspects including the self loss, personal and environmental loss, social loss and system security loss. These four losses are then quantified and scored according to the rules for the investigation of electric power accidents. Finally, a case study of some transmission lines in Guizhou Power Grid is included to verify this integrated risk assessment system. It is shown that the proposed integrated risk assessment system has good practicality, operability and it is easy for assessment.
In order to solve the problem of giant blackout disasters that are easily caused by extreme external environment, a integrated risk assessment for transmission lines is proposed. Firstly, a comprehensive prediction model for failure rate of transmission line is established on the basis of the Multidimensional Could Model. Then, the failure rate of transmission line can be accurately forecasted by analyzing the normal distribution of cloud droplets generated by state assessment data of transmission line. Secondly, an integrated risk assessment system of transmission line is established from four aspects including the self loss, personal and environmental loss, social loss and system security loss. These four losses are then quantified and scored according to the rules for the investigation of electric power accidents. Finally, a case study of some transmission lines in Guizhou Power Grid is included to verify this integrated risk assessment system. It is shown that the proposed integrated risk assessment system has good practicality, operability and it is easy for assessment.
引文
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[13]邓羽,刘盛和,张文婷,等.广义多维云模型及在空间聚类中的应用[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1 439-1 447.DENG Yu,LIU Sheng-he,ZHANG Wen-ting.Spatial clustering method based on general multidimensional cloud model[J].Journal of Geographical Science,2009,64(12):1 439-1 447.
[14]熊小伏,王尉军,于洋,等.多气象因素组合的输电线路风险分析[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2011,23(6):11-15.XIONG Xiao-fu,WANG Wei-jun,Yu Yang,et al.Risk analysis method for transmission line combining of various meteorological factors[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2011,23(6):11-15.
[15]李勋,龚庆武,杨群瑛,等.基于数据挖掘技术的保护设备故障信息管理与分析系统[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(9):88-91.LI Xun,GONG Qing-wu,YANG Qun-ying,et al.Fault information management and analysis system based on data mining technology for relay protection devices[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(9):88-91.
[16]帅海燕,龚庆武,陈道君.计及污闪概率的输电线路运行风险评估理论与指标体系[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(16):48-54.SHUAI Hai-yan,GONG Qing-wu,CHEN Dao-jun.Operation risk assessment theory and index system of transmission line taking the probability of pollution flashover into account[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2011,31(16):48-54.
[17]李佩,杨伟.改进层次分析法和模糊灰色理论的管道土壤腐蚀评价[J].油气储运,2006,25(4):27-33.LI Pei,YANG Wei.Improved analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy grey theory in the pipeline soil corrosion evaluation[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2006,25(4):27-33.
[2]彭子平,刘波,陈清江.输电线路故障率模型研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2014,29(2):51-57.PENG Zi-ping,LIU Bo,CHEN Qing-jiang.Failere rate model for transmission line[J].Journal of Electric power Science and Technology,2014,29(2):51-57.
[3]王燕,杜志叶,阮江军.高压架空输电线路覆冰情况下风险评估研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(10):84-90.WANG Yan,DU Zhi-ye,RUAN Jiang-jun.Reliability risk evaluation for the high voltage overhead transmission line under icing condition[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(10):84-90.
[4]文习山,蓝磊,蒋日坤.采用Markoy模型的输电线路及绝缘子运行风险评估[J].高电压技术,2011,37(8):1 952-1 960.WEN Xi-shan,LAN Lei,JIANG Ri-kun.Operating risk assessment forftransmission and line insulators using Markov mode[J].High Voltage Engineering,2011,37(8):1 952-1 960.
[5]蒋乐,刘俊勇,魏震波,等.基于马尔可夫链模型的输电线路运行状态及其风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(13):51-57,80.JIANG Le,LIU Jun-yong,WEI Zhen-bo,et al.Running state and its risk evaluation of transmission line based on Markov chain model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(13):51-57,80.
[6]郑传材,管霖,梁英杰.基于影响因素识别的架空输电线路可靠性管理系统和评估模型[J].电网技术,2009,33(20):158-163.ZHENG Chuan-cai,GUAN Lin,LIANG Ying-jie.Impacting factor recognition based reliability management system for overhead transmission lines and its evaluation model[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(20):158-163.
[7]朱益华,罗毅,段涛,等.基于输电线路实时评估模型的电力系统静态安全在线风险评估[J].电力自动化设备,2014,34(7):150-156.ZHU Yi-hua,LUO Yi,DUAN Tao,et al.Online risk assessment based on real-time evaluation model of transmission line for static security of power system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2014,34(7):150-156.
[8]赵明欣,鲁宗相,吴林林,等.基于风险评估的输变电设备维修技术[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(19):30-35.ZHAO Ming-xin,LU Zong-xiang,WU Lin-lin,et al.Risk assessment based maintenance technology for electric transmission equipment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(19):30-35.
[9]胡文堂,高胜友,鲁宗相,等.利用设备风险评估的检修策略优化[J].高电压技术,2010,36(11):2 699-2 704.HU Wen-tang,GAO Sheng-you,LU Zong-xiang,et al.Maintenance strategies optimization of equipment using risk assessment[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(11):2 699-2 704.
[10]白恺,罗日成.输变电设备风险评估[J].中国电力,2009,42(10):48-51.BAI Kai,LUO Ri-cheng.Study on risk assessment of transmission and distribution equipments[J].Electric Power,2009,42(10):48-51.
[11]余绍峰,胡文堂,陈金法,等.输变电设备风险评估与维修决策[J].浙江电力,2009,28(3):1-4,64.YU Shao-feng,HU Wen-tang,CHEN Jin-fa,et al.Power transmission equipment risk assessment and maintenance decision[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2009,28(3):1-4,64.
[12]郭戎潇,夏靖波,董淑福.一种基于多维云模型的多属性综合评价方法[J].计算机科学,2010,37(11):75-77.GUO Rong-xiao,XIA Jing-bo,DONG Shu-fu.Multiple attribute evaluation method based on multidimensional cloud model [J].Computer Science,2010,37(11):75-77.
[13]邓羽,刘盛和,张文婷,等.广义多维云模型及在空间聚类中的应用[J].地理学报,2009,64(12):1 439-1 447.DENG Yu,LIU Sheng-he,ZHANG Wen-ting.Spatial clustering method based on general multidimensional cloud model[J].Journal of Geographical Science,2009,64(12):1 439-1 447.
[14]熊小伏,王尉军,于洋,等.多气象因素组合的输电线路风险分析[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2011,23(6):11-15.XIONG Xiao-fu,WANG Wei-jun,Yu Yang,et al.Risk analysis method for transmission line combining of various meteorological factors[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2011,23(6):11-15.
[15]李勋,龚庆武,杨群瑛,等.基于数据挖掘技术的保护设备故障信息管理与分析系统[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(9):88-91.LI Xun,GONG Qing-wu,YANG Qun-ying,et al.Fault information management and analysis system based on data mining technology for relay protection devices[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(9):88-91.
[16]帅海燕,龚庆武,陈道君.计及污闪概率的输电线路运行风险评估理论与指标体系[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(16):48-54.SHUAI Hai-yan,GONG Qing-wu,CHEN Dao-jun.Operation risk assessment theory and index system of transmission line taking the probability of pollution flashover into account[J].Proceeding of the CSEE,2011,31(16):48-54.
[17]李佩,杨伟.改进层次分析法和模糊灰色理论的管道土壤腐蚀评价[J].油气储运,2006,25(4):27-33.LI Pei,YANG Wei.Improved analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy grey theory in the pipeline soil corrosion evaluation[J].Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2006,25(4):27-33.