基于点估计法的杆塔结构平均可靠度分析
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摘要
由于目前输电塔结构设计规范参照建筑结构规范编制,所涵盖的设计对象大多针对荷载效应比不大于3的情况。然而,输电塔自重轻,活荷载效应比普遍较高,导致其按照现有规范进行设计的构件可靠度水准降低。为了校准输电塔的可靠度水平,文中首次尝试将荷载效应比视为随机变量,沿用点估计法的基本思想,以荷载效应比的分布为输入,得到基于荷载效应比分布的、具有统计意义的杆塔结构加权平均可靠度指标。首先,通过大量实际结构分析得到杆塔结构构件风荷载效应比的样本值,基于这些样本值进行分布拟合,得到荷载效应比的分布;其次,利用点估计法基本思想,选取荷载效应比分布的积分点,计算这些积分点处的可靠度指标,再根据各对应积分点的权重值,得到平均可靠度指标。最后,文中分别计算了不同风速下,不同线条风占比和不同结构重要性系数下的平均可靠度指标。
At present,the codes of transmission towers are almost based on the construction of building codes,and the design objects are mostly aimed at the load-effect ratio not greater than 3.However,the living load effect of the transmission towers is higher than that of the existing codes,and the reliability of the components is reduced.In order to calibrate the reliability level of transmission towers,regarding the load-effect ratio as a random variable based on the point estimation method is firsly attempted,the weighted average reliability index of tower structure is obtained based on the distribution of load effect ratio as input.Firstly,the samples of wind load-effect ratio of tower structural members are obtained through a large number of structural analyses,and the distribution fitting is exploited to fit the distribution of load effect ratio.Secondly,applying the point estimation method,the abscissas of the fitted load-effect ratio distribution are selected,the reliability index of these points is calculated,and then the average reliability index according to the weight of each corresponding point.At last,the average reliability index under different wind speed and different structure importance coefficients is calculated.
At present,the codes of transmission towers are almost based on the construction of building codes,and the design objects are mostly aimed at the load-effect ratio not greater than 3.However,the living load effect of the transmission towers is higher than that of the existing codes,and the reliability of the components is reduced.In order to calibrate the reliability level of transmission towers,regarding the load-effect ratio as a random variable based on the point estimation method is firsly attempted,the weighted average reliability index of tower structure is obtained based on the distribution of load effect ratio as input.Firstly,the samples of wind load-effect ratio of tower structural members are obtained through a large number of structural analyses,and the distribution fitting is exploited to fit the distribution of load effect ratio.Secondly,applying the point estimation method,the abscissas of the fitted load-effect ratio distribution are selected,the reliability index of these points is calculated,and then the average reliability index according to the weight of each corresponding point.At last,the average reliability index under different wind speed and different structure importance coefficients is calculated.
引文
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[2]蒋友宝,杨伟军.可变荷载效应占高比重时荷载分项系数取值研究[J].建筑结构学报,2012,33(12):130-135.JIANG Youbao,YANG Weijun.Research on values of load partial factors with large ratios of variable load effects[J].Journal of Building Structures,2012,33(12):130-135.
[3]冯云芬,贡金鑫.输电线路杆塔构件可靠度校准[J].电力建设,2014,35(5):13-20.FENG Yunfen,GONG Jinxin.Reliability calibration of tower members in transmission line[J].Electric Power Construction,2014,35(5):13-20.
[4]李峰,袁骏.我国输电线路铁塔结构设计可靠度研究[J].电力建设,2010,31(11):18-23.LI Feng,YUAN Jun.Research on reliability of transmission tower structure design in china[J].Electric Power Construction,2010,31(11):18-23.
[5]王松涛.现行输电塔设计规范可靠度水准的评估与分析[D].重庆大学,2014.WANG Songtao.Reliability assessment and analysis of the current design code for transmission towers[D].Chongqing University,2014.
[6]刘静波.输电塔结构设计表达式分项系数合理性及体系可靠度分析[D].重庆大学,2016.LIU Jingbo.Rationality of partial coefficient in design expression and system reliability analysis of transmission tower[D].Chongqing University,2016.
[7]曹俊涵,郭晓波.用MATLAB曲线拟合工具箱计算药物溶出度Weibull分布参数[J].药学进展,2006,30(12):556-559.CAO Junhan,GUO Xiaobo.Calculation of Weibull's distribution parameters for drug dissolution by MATLAB curvefit toolbox[J].Progress in Pharmaceutical Sciences,2006,30(12):556
[8]肖郑颖.基于MATLAB的强度分布曲线的拟合研究[J].湖南农机,2012,39(7):36-36.XIAO Zhengyin.The curve fitting research of intensity profiles based on MATLAB[J].Hunan Agricultural Machinery,2012,39(7):36-36.
[9]BOTEV Z I,GROTOWSKI J F,KROESE D P.Kernel density estimation via diffusion[J].Annals of Statistics,2010,38(5):2916-2957.
[10]DL/T 5154—2012架空输电线路杆塔结构设计技术规定[S].中国计划出版社,2012.DL/T 5154—2012 Design of latticed steel transmission structures[S].China Planning Press,2012.
[11]赵国藩.工程结构可靠度[M].北京:水利出版社,1984.ZHAO Guofan.Reliability for engineering structures[M].Beijing:Hydraulic Press,1984.
[12]李继华.建筑结构概率极限状态设计[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1990.LI Jihua.Probabilistic limit state design of building structures[M].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,1990.
[13]赵国藩.工程结构可靠性理论与应用[M].大连:大连理工大学出版社,1996.ZHAO Guofan.Reliability theory and its applications to engineering structures[M].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology Press,1996.
[14]FAN W L.Adaptive estimation of statistical moments of the responses of random systems[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2016,43:50-67.
[15]范文亮,李正良,韩枫.单变量函数统计矩的点估计法性能比较[J].工程力学,2012,29(9):1-10.FAN Wenliang,LI Zhengliang,HAN Feng.Comparison of point estimate methods for probability moments of univariate function[J].Engineering Mechanics,2012,29(9):1-10.
[16]范文亮,李正良,韩枫.多变量函数统计矩点估计法的性能比较[J].工程力学,2012,29(11):1-11.FAN Wenliang,LI Zhengliang,HAN Feng.Comparison of point estimate methods for probability moments of multivariate function[J].Engineering Mechanics.2012,29(9):1-10.
[17]RAHMAN S,XU H.A univariate dimension-reduction method for multi-dimensional integration in stochastic mechanics[J].Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics,2004,19(4):393-408.
[18]XU H,RAHMAN S.A generalized dimension-reduction method for multi-dimensional integration in stochastic mechanics(Int.J.Numer.Meth.Engng 2004,61:1992-2019)[J].International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering,2006,65(13):2292-2292.
[19]ROSENBLATT M.Remarks on a multivariate transformation[J].The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1952,23(3):470-472.