基于点估计法随机潮流的输电网多阶段规划研究
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摘要
可再生能源出力的随机性和间歇性以及负荷预测误差等不确定因素,给电网规划人员带来了诸多挑战。将点估计法随机最优潮流引入到输电网规划中,以点估计法模拟系统中遇到的不确定因素。针对目前点估计法对线路潮流的约束主要集中在各个估计点向量中的弊端,除考虑各个估计点向量约束外,还计及了线路潮流期望值约束,并以潮流的标准差表征系统线路过负荷风险,在规划模型中考虑了风险控制策略。在此基础上,以投资运行费用之和最小为目标,建立了输电网多阶段规划模型。通过对约束条件的线性化,将原模型转化成了混合整数线性规划形式。最后,以改进的Garver 6和IEEE-RTS 24节点系统对所提模型和方法进行了验证。
Uncertainties, such as randomness and intermittence of renewable energy and load forecasting errors, bring great challenges to grid planners. Point estimation method based on stochastic optimal power flow is introduced in this paper to deal with uncertainties in transmission expansion planning. However, power flow constraints of point estimation method are mainly concentrated in various scenarios in conventional model. In addition to considering the constraints of each estimation point, expectation value of power flow is also considered in this study. Moreover, standard deviation of power flow is used to indicate line overload risk, and risk control strategies are obtained in the proposed model. Based on this, a multistage transmission network expansion planning model is developed aiming at minimum investment and operation cost. By linearizing the power flow constraints, the proposed stochastic transmission expansion planning model is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming formulation. The modified Garver-6 and IEEE RTS-24 bus systems are used to validate effectiveness of the proposed model.
Uncertainties, such as randomness and intermittence of renewable energy and load forecasting errors, bring great challenges to grid planners. Point estimation method based on stochastic optimal power flow is introduced in this paper to deal with uncertainties in transmission expansion planning. However, power flow constraints of point estimation method are mainly concentrated in various scenarios in conventional model. In addition to considering the constraints of each estimation point, expectation value of power flow is also considered in this study. Moreover, standard deviation of power flow is used to indicate line overload risk, and risk control strategies are obtained in the proposed model. Based on this, a multistage transmission network expansion planning model is developed aiming at minimum investment and operation cost. By linearizing the power flow constraints, the proposed stochastic transmission expansion planning model is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming formulation. The modified Garver-6 and IEEE RTS-24 bus systems are used to validate effectiveness of the proposed model.
引文
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[15]范婷婷,杜松怀,刘科研,等.计及输入变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性概率评估三点估计法[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2324-2331.Fan Tingting,Du Songhuai,Liu Keyan,et al.Probabilistic reliability evaluation of active distribution network based on three-point estimate method considering correlation of input variables[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(7):2324-2331(in Chinese).
[16]艾小猛,文劲宇,吴桐,等.基于点估计和Gram-Charlier展开的含风电电力系统概率潮流实用算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(16):16-22.Ai Xiaomeng,Wen Jinyu,Wu Tong,et al.A practical algorithm based on point estimate method and Gram-Charlier expansion for probabilistic load flow calculation of power systems incorporating wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(16):16-22(in Chinese).
[17]胡源,别朝红,宁光涛,等.计及风电不确定性的多目标电网规划期望值模型与算法[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(10):168-175.Hu Yuan,Bie Zhaohong,Ning Guangtao,et al.The expected model and algorithm of multi-objective transmission network planning considering the uncertainty of wind power[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(10):168-175(in Chinese).
[18]Arabali A,Hosseini S H,Moeini Aghtaie M.Probabilistic multi-objective transmission investment and expansion planning[J].International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems,2015,25(9):1884-1904.
[19]Moeini A M,Abbaspour A,Fotuhi-Firuzabad M.Incorporating large-scale distant wind farms in probabilistic transmission expansion planning-part I:theory and algorithm[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(3):1585-1593.
[20]甘磊,谷纪亭,钟宇军,等.考虑多形态间歇性电源集中接入的输电网随机双层规划方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3125-3131.Gan Lei,Gu Jiting,Zhong Yujun,et al.Bi-level stochastic planning method of transmission networks with multiple centralized intermittent generations[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3125-3131(in Chinese).
[21]姜惠兰,安星,王亚微,等.基于改进NSGA2算法的考虑风机接入电能质量的多目标电网规划[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(21):5405-5411.Jiang Huilan,An Xing,Wang Yawei,et al.Improved NSGA2algorithm based multi-objective planning of power grid with wind farm considering power quality[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(21):5405-5411(in Chinese).
[22]Zhang Libo,Cheng Haozhong,Zhang Shenxi,et al.A novel point estimate method for probabilistic power flow considering correlated nodal power[C]//2014 IEEE PES General Meeting Conference&Exposition.National Harbor,MD:IEEE,2014:1-5.
[23]李一铭,李文沅,颜伟.考虑风速有界性的概率潮流点估计方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(7):1606-1612.Li Yiming,Li Wenyuan,Yan Wei.Probabilistic power flow using the point estimate method considering bounded wind speeds[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(7):1606-1612(in Chinese).
[24]Binato S,Pereira M V F,Granville S.A new Benders decomposition approach to solve power transmission network design problems[J].IEEE Power Engineering Review,2001,16(2):235-240.
[25]Alguacil N,Motto A L,Conejo A J.Transmission expansion planning:a mixed-integer LP approach[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2003,18(3):1070-1077.
[26]Garver L L.Transmission network estimation using linear programming[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus&Systems,1970,PAS-89(7):1688-1697.
[27]Zhang H,Vittal V,Heydt G T,et al.A mixed-integer linear programming approach for multi-stage security-constrained transmission expansion planning[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(2):1125-1133.
[2]Qiu J,Dong Z Y,Zhao J H,et al.Multi-stage flexible expansion co-planning under uncertainties in a combined electricity and gas market[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2015,30(4):2119-2129.
[3]Ugranli F,Karatepe E.Transmission expansion planning for wind turbine integrated power systems considering contingency[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,31(2):350-355.
[4]Majidi-Qadikolai M,Baldick R.Stochastic transmission capacity expansion planning with special scenario selection for integrating N-1contingency analysis[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(6):4901-4912.
[5]Majidi-Qadikolai M,Baldick R.Integration of contingency analysis with systematic transmission capacity expansion planning:ERCOT case study[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(3):2234-2245.
[6]杜尔顺,孙彦龙,张宁,等.适应低碳电源发展的低碳电网规划模型[J].电网技术,2015,39(10):2725-2730.Du Ershun,Sun Yanlong,Zhang Ning,et al.Transmission expansion planning model facilitating low-carbon power sources’development[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(10):2725-2730(in Chinese).
[7]洪绍云,程浩忠,曾平良,等.基于相关场景聚类的发输电联合扩展规划[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(22):71-76.Hong Shaoyun,Cheng Haozhong,Zeng Pingliang,et al.Coordinated generation and transmission expansion planning with clusters of correlative scenarios[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(22):71-76(in Chinese).
[8]Dehghanian P,Kezunovic M.Probabilistic decision making for the bulk power system optimal topology control[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2016,7(4):2071-2081.
[9]潘超,孟涛,蔡国伟,等.广义电源多目标优化配置与运行[J].电网技术,2015,39(12):3505-3512.Pan Chao,Meng Tao,Cai Guowei,et al.Multi-objective optimal configuration and operation of generalized power sources[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(12):3505-3512(in Chinese).
[10]尹青,杨洪耕,马晓阳.含大规模风电场的电网概率无功优化调度[J].电网技术,2017,41(2):514-520.Yin Qing,Yang Honggeng,Ma Xiaoyang.Probabilistic optimal reactive power dispatch of power grid with large-scale wind farm integration[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(2):514-520(in Chinese).
[11]杨家豪,欧阳森,吴裕生,等.计及风-储联合系统概率模型的配电网随机潮流[J].电网技术,2016,40(1):234-241.Yang Jiahao,Ouyang Sen,Wu Yusheng,et al.Stochastic power flow of distribution network considering probability model of windstorage combined systems[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(1):234-241(in Chinese).
[12]戎晓雪,别朝红,石文辉,等.考虑风电场相关性的含风电电力系统随机潮流分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2161-2167.Rong Xiaoxue,Bie Zhaohong,Shi Wenhui,et al.Analysis on probabilistic load flow in power gird integrated with wind farms considering correlativity among different wind farms[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2161-2167(in Chinese).
[13]Su C L.Probabilistic load-flow computation using point estimate method[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(4):1843-1851.
[14]韦婷婷,王主丁,寿挺,等.基于DG并网运行的中压配网可靠性评估实用方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3006-3012.Wei Tingting,Wang Zhuding,Shou Ting,et al.A practical reliability assessment method of distribution systems with grid connected DGs[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3006-3012(in Chinese).
[15]范婷婷,杜松怀,刘科研,等.计及输入变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性概率评估三点估计法[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2324-2331.Fan Tingting,Du Songhuai,Liu Keyan,et al.Probabilistic reliability evaluation of active distribution network based on three-point estimate method considering correlation of input variables[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(7):2324-2331(in Chinese).
[16]艾小猛,文劲宇,吴桐,等.基于点估计和Gram-Charlier展开的含风电电力系统概率潮流实用算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(16):16-22.Ai Xiaomeng,Wen Jinyu,Wu Tong,et al.A practical algorithm based on point estimate method and Gram-Charlier expansion for probabilistic load flow calculation of power systems incorporating wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(16):16-22(in Chinese).
[17]胡源,别朝红,宁光涛,等.计及风电不确定性的多目标电网规划期望值模型与算法[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(10):168-175.Hu Yuan,Bie Zhaohong,Ning Guangtao,et al.The expected model and algorithm of multi-objective transmission network planning considering the uncertainty of wind power[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(10):168-175(in Chinese).
[18]Arabali A,Hosseini S H,Moeini Aghtaie M.Probabilistic multi-objective transmission investment and expansion planning[J].International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems,2015,25(9):1884-1904.
[19]Moeini A M,Abbaspour A,Fotuhi-Firuzabad M.Incorporating large-scale distant wind farms in probabilistic transmission expansion planning-part I:theory and algorithm[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(3):1585-1593.
[20]甘磊,谷纪亭,钟宇军,等.考虑多形态间歇性电源集中接入的输电网随机双层规划方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3125-3131.Gan Lei,Gu Jiting,Zhong Yujun,et al.Bi-level stochastic planning method of transmission networks with multiple centralized intermittent generations[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3125-3131(in Chinese).
[21]姜惠兰,安星,王亚微,等.基于改进NSGA2算法的考虑风机接入电能质量的多目标电网规划[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(21):5405-5411.Jiang Huilan,An Xing,Wang Yawei,et al.Improved NSGA2algorithm based multi-objective planning of power grid with wind farm considering power quality[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(21):5405-5411(in Chinese).
[22]Zhang Libo,Cheng Haozhong,Zhang Shenxi,et al.A novel point estimate method for probabilistic power flow considering correlated nodal power[C]//2014 IEEE PES General Meeting Conference&Exposition.National Harbor,MD:IEEE,2014:1-5.
[23]李一铭,李文沅,颜伟.考虑风速有界性的概率潮流点估计方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(7):1606-1612.Li Yiming,Li Wenyuan,Yan Wei.Probabilistic power flow using the point estimate method considering bounded wind speeds[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(7):1606-1612(in Chinese).
[24]Binato S,Pereira M V F,Granville S.A new Benders decomposition approach to solve power transmission network design problems[J].IEEE Power Engineering Review,2001,16(2):235-240.
[25]Alguacil N,Motto A L,Conejo A J.Transmission expansion planning:a mixed-integer LP approach[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2003,18(3):1070-1077.
[26]Garver L L.Transmission network estimation using linear programming[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus&Systems,1970,PAS-89(7):1688-1697.
[27]Zhang H,Vittal V,Heydt G T,et al.A mixed-integer linear programming approach for multi-stage security-constrained transmission expansion planning[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(2):1125-1133.