定期检测策略下备件需求量仿真预测研究
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摘要
针对备件需求量预测这一典型问题,结合基于状态的维修实际,研究了定期检测策略下备件需求量的预测方法。首先,分析了设备在定期检测策略下的维修特点,给出了备件需求的产生过程;然后采用计算机仿真的方式,基于设备故障规律研究了一定时间内备件消耗的模拟过程;最后通过一个实例,演示了所提出的预测方法的应用过程与效果,为制订备件订购与储供计划,以及规划维修保障资源等提供了决策依据。
Aiming at the typical problem of spare part demand prediction,the method under periodic inspection was studied with the maintenance practice of Condition-Based Maintenance. Firstly,the characteristics of maintenance under periodic inspection was analyzed,and the generation process of spare part demand was given; secondly,with the means of computer simulation,the spare part consumption process was studied based on the failure rules; lastly,anumerical example was given,which demonstrated the application and effect. The research can provide support for spare part ordering plan and maintenance support decision-making.
Aiming at the typical problem of spare part demand prediction,the method under periodic inspection was studied with the maintenance practice of Condition-Based Maintenance. Firstly,the characteristics of maintenance under periodic inspection was analyzed,and the generation process of spare part demand was given; secondly,with the means of computer simulation,the spare part consumption process was studied based on the failure rules; lastly,anumerical example was given,which demonstrated the application and effect. The research can provide support for spare part ordering plan and maintenance support decision-making.
引文
[1]高崎.军械维修器材管理学[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2012.Gao Qi.Ordnance maintenance material management[M].Beijing:National Industry Press,2012.
[2]林勇.供应链通用件库存管理[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2008.Lin Yong.Supply chain interchangeable parts inventory management[M].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2008.
[3]赵建忠,徐廷学,刘勇等.基于粗糙集和熵权以及改进支持向量机的导弹备件消耗预测[J].兵工学报,2012,33(10):1258-1265.Zhao Jianzhong,Xu Tingxue,Liu Yong etc.Consumption forecasting of missile spare parts based on rough set,entropy weight and improved SVM[J].Acta Armamentar,2012,33(10):1258-1265.
[4]赵宇,伏洪勇,张坚等.航空电子设备备件需求量分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(3):1-3.Zhao Yu,Fu Hongyong,Zhang Jian etc.Demand analysis of the spare parts of avionic devices[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2002,24(3):1-3.
[5]刘天华,张志华,梁胜杰等.一种Weibull型备件需求量的改进算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):1124-1128.Liu Tianhua,Zhang Zhihua,Liang Shengjie etc.An improved method for the spare demand of the Weibulldistribution[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2012,32(5):1124-1128.
[6]Wang Hongzhou.A survey of maintenance policies of deteriorating systems[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,139:469-486.
[2]林勇.供应链通用件库存管理[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2008.Lin Yong.Supply chain interchangeable parts inventory management[M].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2008.
[3]赵建忠,徐廷学,刘勇等.基于粗糙集和熵权以及改进支持向量机的导弹备件消耗预测[J].兵工学报,2012,33(10):1258-1265.Zhao Jianzhong,Xu Tingxue,Liu Yong etc.Consumption forecasting of missile spare parts based on rough set,entropy weight and improved SVM[J].Acta Armamentar,2012,33(10):1258-1265.
[4]赵宇,伏洪勇,张坚等.航空电子设备备件需求量分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(3):1-3.Zhao Yu,Fu Hongyong,Zhang Jian etc.Demand analysis of the spare parts of avionic devices[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2002,24(3):1-3.
[5]刘天华,张志华,梁胜杰等.一种Weibull型备件需求量的改进算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(5):1124-1128.Liu Tianhua,Zhang Zhihua,Liang Shengjie etc.An improved method for the spare demand of the Weibulldistribution[J].Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice,2012,32(5):1124-1128.
[6]Wang Hongzhou.A survey of maintenance policies of deteriorating systems[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,139:469-486.