核事故实时释放量集合卡尔曼滤波反演算法研究
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摘要
为探索适用于核事故现场实时释放量的快速反演计算方法,将集合卡尔曼滤波方法和高斯多烟团扩散模型结合,建立了核事故源项释放量集合卡尔曼滤波计算流程,研究讨论了集合成员数、初始值、扰动值对反演结果的影响。模拟仿真实验显示,集合数为50、偏大初始值以及较大扰动值为参数的集合卡尔曼滤波反演较佳,释放积分相对误差在5%以内。研究表明,集合卡尔曼滤波反演核事故源项释放量算法具备有效性和可行性,原则上可实时跟踪反演核事故源项释放量。
In order to develop a rapidly inversion algorithm for instantaneous release quantity on nuclear accident site,a calculation approach was established based on ensemble Kalman filter combined with Gaussian multipuff dispersion model.The influences of ensemble number,initial value and perturbation on inversion performance were discussed.The simulation experiment results discover that ensemble number of 50,bigger initial value and larger perturbation are relative optimal parameters.The time integrated release quantity relative error in simulation is less than 5%.The final results demonstrate a feasibility and validity of inversion algorithm based on ensemble Kalman filter,and this algorithm could sequentially track the variable source release quantity in real time in principle.
In order to develop a rapidly inversion algorithm for instantaneous release quantity on nuclear accident site,a calculation approach was established based on ensemble Kalman filter combined with Gaussian multipuff dispersion model.The influences of ensemble number,initial value and perturbation on inversion performance were discussed.The simulation experiment results discover that ensemble number of 50,bigger initial value and larger perturbation are relative optimal parameters.The time integrated release quantity relative error in simulation is less than 5%.The final results demonstrate a feasibility and validity of inversion algorithm based on ensemble Kalman filter,and this algorithm could sequentially track the variable source release quantity in real time in principle.
引文
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[10]EVENSEN G.The ensemble Kalman filter:Theoretical formulation and practical implementation[J].Ocean Dynamics,2003,53:343-367.
[2]程卫亚,杨宏伟,陈凌,等.利用航测数据反推福岛核事故137 Cs的释放量[J].原子能科学技术,2012,46(2):252-256.CHENG Weiya,YANG Hongwei,CHEN Ling,et al.Deducing total released activity of 137 Cs in Fukushima’s nuclear accident by results of airborne monitoring[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2012,46(2):252-256(in Chinese).
[3]JEONG H J,KIM E H,SUH K S,et al.Determination of the source rate released into the environment from a nuclear power plant[J].Radiation Protection Dosimetry,2005,113(3):308-313.
[4]宁莎莎,蒯琳萍.混合遗传算法在核事故源项反演中的应用[J].原子能科学技术,2012,46(增刊):469-472.NING Shasha,KUAI Linping.Back calculation of source terms by hybrid genetic algorithm in nuclear power plant accident[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2012,46(Suppl.):469-472(in Chinese).
[5]ASTRUP P,TURCANU C,PUCH R O,et al.Data assimilation in the early phase:Kalman filtering RIMPUFF,RODOS(RA5)-TN(04)-01[R].Denmark:RisNational Laboratory Information Service Department,2004.
[6]PUCH R O,ASTRUP P.An extended Kalman filter methodology for the plume phase of a nuclear accident,RODOS(RA5)-TN(01)-07[R].Denmark:RisNational Laboratory Information Service Department,2002.
[7]徐志新,奚树人,曲静原.核事故源项反演技术及其研究现状[J].科技导报,2007,25(5):16-20.XU Zhixin,XI Shuren,QU Jingyuan.Review on source inversion technology in analyzing nuclear accidents[J].Science&Technology Review,2007,25(5):16-20(in Chinese).
[8]ZHENG D Q,LEUNG J K C,LEE B Y,et al.Data assimilation in the atmospheric dispersion model for nuclear accident assessments[J].Atmospheric Environment,2007,41:2 438-2 446.
[9]唐秀欢,包利红,李华,等.卡尔曼线性滤波反演核设施核事故中核素释放率的研究[J].原子能科学技术,2014,48(10):1 847-1 852.TANG Xiuhuan,BAO Lihong,LI Hua,et al.Radionuclide release rate inversion of nuclear accidents in nuclear facility based on Kalman filter[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2014,48(10):1 847-1 852(in Chinese).
[10]EVENSEN G.The ensemble Kalman filter:Theoretical formulation and practical implementation[J].Ocean Dynamics,2003,53:343-367.