摘要
为探索适用于核事故现场实时释放量的快速反演计算方法,将集合卡尔曼滤波方法和高斯多烟团扩散模型结合,建立了核事故源项释放量集合卡尔曼滤波计算流程,研究讨论了集合成员数、初始值、扰动值对反演结果的影响。模拟仿真实验显示,集合数为50、偏大初始值以及较大扰动值为参数的集合卡尔曼滤波反演较佳,释放积分相对误差在5%以内。研究表明,集合卡尔曼滤波反演核事故源项释放量算法具备有效性和可行性,原则上可实时跟踪反演核事故源项释放量。
In order to develop a rapidly inversion algorithm for instantaneous release quantity on nuclear accident site,a calculation approach was established based on ensemble Kalman filter combined with Gaussian multipuff dispersion model.The influences of ensemble number,initial value and perturbation on inversion performance were discussed.The simulation experiment results discover that ensemble number of 50,bigger initial value and larger perturbation are relative optimal parameters.The time integrated release quantity relative error in simulation is less than 5%.The final results demonstrate a feasibility and validity of inversion algorithm based on ensemble Kalman filter,and this algorithm could sequentially track the variable source release quantity in real time in principle.
引文
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