全球气候变暖与绿洲城市气候变化关系分析
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摘要
全球气候的变化对局部气候的形成和演化起带动作用,与此同时小气候变化也会影响到大气候的变化。喀什市是一个最典型的干旱区沙漠绿洲城市,研究通过收集喀什市气候资料和全球气候资料,在此基础上量算局部气候和大气候的相互关系和未来变化预测。结果表明,喀什市的气温和世界气温的相关系数为0.337,喀什市降水量和世界降水量的相关系数为-0.667。喀什市气温和世界气温回归模型为y=29.72x-355.4,R~2=0.371,喀什市降水量和世界降水量之间的回归模型为y=2.058x-17.29,R~2=0.596。可知喀什市和世界气候要素关系不大,干旱区小城市气候对世界气候的影响不明显。
The global climate changes on the local climate formation and evolution play a leading role.At the same time,climate change will affect the climate changes.Kashgar is a typical arid desert oasis city.Based on the collection of Kashi climate data and climatic data for the world,this paper studied the relationship between the local climate and climate and predicted the changes in future.The results show that the correlation coefficient of air temperature and the world temperature in Kashi city is 0.337,the correlation coefficient of precipitation in Kashi and world precipitation is -0.667.The regression model of Kashi temperature and global temperature is y=29.72x-355.4,R~2=0.371.The Regression model between Kashi precipitation and global precipitation is y=2.058x-17.29,R~2=0.596.The relationship of climate factors between Kashi and the world is not obvious,and the climate of the small cities in the arid region is not significant to the world climate.
The global climate changes on the local climate formation and evolution play a leading role.At the same time,climate change will affect the climate changes.Kashgar is a typical arid desert oasis city.Based on the collection of Kashi climate data and climatic data for the world,this paper studied the relationship between the local climate and climate and predicted the changes in future.The results show that the correlation coefficient of air temperature and the world temperature in Kashi city is 0.337,the correlation coefficient of precipitation in Kashi and world precipitation is -0.667.The regression model of Kashi temperature and global temperature is y=29.72x-355.4,R~2=0.371.The Regression model between Kashi precipitation and global precipitation is y=2.058x-17.29,R~2=0.596.The relationship of climate factors between Kashi and the world is not obvious,and the climate of the small cities in the arid region is not significant to the world climate.
引文
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[2]薛燕,韩萍,冯国华.半世纪以来新疆降水和气温的变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2003,20(2):127-128.
[3]阿卜杜塔伊尔·亚森,阿布都热合曼·于苏甫,热伊莱·伊力巩木.喀什市近24年气候变化特征分析[J].牡丹江大学学报,2012,21(9):146-149.
[4]李江风.新疆气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1991.
[5]仙米西努尔·克里木,古丽巴哈尔·吾布力,帕力旦·阿不来提.近年来喀什市气候变化特征分析[J].牡丹江大学学报,2012,21(4):94-97.
[6]李国栋,张俊华,程弘毅,等.全球变暖和城市化背景下的城市热岛效应[J].气象科技进展,2012,2(6).
[7]IPCC.IPCCThird Assessment Report Climate Change,2001[1](TAR).http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/vol4/index.htm.
[8]尹学博.全球气候变暖中的大气化学问题[J].大学化学,2011,26(1).
[9]UNFP.The Stateof World Population1999[M].New York:UnitedNations Population Fund,United Nations Publica-tions,1999:76.
[10]中国科学院地理研究所气候变化组.气候变化若干问题[M].北京:科学出版社,1977:105-111.
[11]阿卜杜塔伊尔·亚森,阿布都热合曼·于苏甫.牡丹江大学学报.喀什市近24年气候变化特征分析[J].2012,21(9).