NUIST地球系统模式模拟热带气旋活动的气候特征分析
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摘要
采用恒定的现代外部强迫驱动第一版NUIST地球系统模式,进行了40年全球热带气旋活动模拟,分析了热带气旋活动的气候特征,并与1977—2016年观测资料对比分析。结果表明:该模式能够模拟出与热带气旋类似的结构特征,在热带气旋活动活跃的海区,模拟热带气旋生成的空间分布和影响范围与观测基本一致,但是各个海区热带气旋的生成频数与观测还存在差异。除了北印度洋海区,各个海区热带气旋生成频数的季节变化与观测相似。模式在西北太平洋海区模拟结果最好,能模拟出热带气旋的生成范围和盛行路径;在北印度洋地区模拟结果较差,北印度洋海区的相对涡度模拟与观测存在较大差异,这是模式未能模拟出北印度洋热带气旋双峰特征的主要原因。
By using the NUIST Earth system model v1(NESM v1) with a constant external forcing, 40-year global tropical cyclone activities were simulated, and the simulation data were compared with the observations(1977-2016). The results show that NESM v1 can simulate vortex structure similar to tropical cyclones in the area where tropical cyclones are active, The spatial distribution and impact range of simulated tropical cyclones are basically consistent with the observations, but the numbers of tropical cyclones in various areas are different from the observations. In addition to North Indian Ocean, the numbers of tropical cyclones in different seasons are similar to the observations. The model has the best simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it can simulate the formation area and prevailing path of tropical cyclones. The simulation results in the North Indian Ocean are poor. NESM model simulates relative vorticity different from observation, so it cannot simulate the bimodal characteristic in North Indian.
By using the NUIST Earth system model v1(NESM v1) with a constant external forcing, 40-year global tropical cyclone activities were simulated, and the simulation data were compared with the observations(1977-2016). The results show that NESM v1 can simulate vortex structure similar to tropical cyclones in the area where tropical cyclones are active, The spatial distribution and impact range of simulated tropical cyclones are basically consistent with the observations, but the numbers of tropical cyclones in various areas are different from the observations. In addition to North Indian Ocean, the numbers of tropical cyclones in different seasons are similar to the observations. The model has the best simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, it can simulate the formation area and prevailing path of tropical cyclones. The simulation results in the North Indian Ocean are poor. NESM model simulates relative vorticity different from observation, so it cannot simulate the bimodal characteristic in North Indian.
引文
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[25]Gray W M.Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1968, 96:669-700
[26]Zhao H, Wu L,Zhou W. Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the Western North Pacific[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 27(6):1361-1371
[2]Vitart F, Stockdale T N. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupledGCMintegrations[J].Monthly WeatherReview,2000,129(129):2521-2527
[3]Murakami H,Sugi M,Kitoh A.Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRIAGCM[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(9):3237-3260[4]
[4]Zhao M,Held I M,Lin S J,et al.Sim ulations of global hurricane climatology,interannual variability,and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM[J]. Journal of Climate, 2009, 22(24):6653-6678
[5]Cao J, Wang B,Xiang B,et al.Majormodesofshort-termclimate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model(NESM)[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 32(5):585-600
[6]Cao J, Wang B, Yang Y M,et al. The NUIST Earth System Model(NESM) version 3:description and preliminarye valuation[J].Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 2017:1-53
[7]Fouquart Y J, Bonnel B. Computations of solar heating of the Earth’s atmosphere:anewparameterization[J].BeitraegezurPhysikder Atmospahere, 1980, 53:35-62
[8]Mlawer E J, Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.Radiative transfer for inhom ogeneous atmospheres:RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,1997, 102(D14):16663-16682
[9]Lohmann U,Roeckner E.Design and performance of a new cloud microphysics scheme developed for the ECHAM general circulation model[J]. Climate Dynamics, 1996, 12(8):557-572
[10]Knapp K R,Kruk M C,Levinson D H, et al. The international best track archive for climate stew ardship(IBTrACS):unifying tropical cyclonedata[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2010, 91(3):363-376
[11]Hawkins H F,Rubsam D T.Hurricane Hilda,1964[J].Monthly Weather Review, 1968, 96(7):428
[12]Frank W M. A Composite analysis of the core of a mature hurricane[J].Monthly Weather Review, 1984, 112(12):2401-2420
[13]Jha C S. Improving the detection and tracking of tropical cyclones in atmosphericgeneralcirculationmodels[J]. Weather&Forecasting,2002, 17(6):1152-1162
[14]Yoshimura J, Sugi M. Tropical cyclone climatology in a high-resolution AGCMimpactsofSSTwarmingandCO2increase[J].Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 2005, 1(3):133-136
[15]Strachan J, Vidale P L, Hodges K, et al. Investigating global tropical cycloneactivitywithahierarchyof AGCMs:theroleofmodel resolution[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(1):133-152
[16]曹剑,吴立广,潘维玉. 2006年7—9月西北太平洋热带气旋季节活动的数值模拟[J].大气科学学报, 2012, 35(2):148-162
[17]Briegel L M.Large-scaleinfluences on tropical cyclogenesis int he Western North Pacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,1997,125(7):1397
[18]Ritchie E A, Holland G J. Large-scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesisinthe WesternPacific[J].Monthly Weather Review,2010, 127(9):2027-2043
[19]Molinari J,Vollaro D.What percentage of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones form within the monsoon trough[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2013, 141(2):499-505
[20]Chia H H, Ropelewski C F. The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate, 2002, 15(20):2934-2944
[21]Chen T C, Wang S Y, Yen M C. Interannual variation of the tropical cyclone activity over the Western North Pacific[J]. Journal of Climate,2005, 19(19):5709
[22]Harr P A,Elsberry R L.Large-scale circulation variability over the tropical Western North Pacific.PartI:spatial patterns and tropical cyclone characteristics[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1995, 123(123):1247
[23]Wu L, Wen Z, Huang R, et al. Possible linkage between the monsoon troughvariabilityandthetropicalcycloneactivityoverthe Western North Pacific[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2012, 140(1):140-150
[24]张霏,吴立广,任福民,等.孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海热带气旋活动双峰型差异及可能成因[J].热带气象学报, 2016, 32(3):399-406
[25]Gray W M.Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1968, 96:669-700
[26]Zhao H, Wu L,Zhou W. Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the Western North Pacific[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 27(6):1361-1371