基于多因素分析的我国煤炭消费及节能减排潜力预测
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摘要
本文首先对1996~2015年我国煤炭消费量、经济增长、单位GDP能耗、环境规制强度、能源消费结构数据进行协整分析,发现存在长期均衡关系,并通过格兰杰检验发现经济增长、单位GDP能耗、环境规制强度、能源消费结构均是煤炭消费量的格兰杰成因。其次借助协整方程,对各参数设置了基准变化,给出了2016~2025年的煤炭消费预测。最后,在基准预测的基础上进行情景模拟,对煤炭消费量和节能减排潜力进行预测。
First,by the data of coal consumption and economic growth,energy consumption per unit GDP,environmental regulation intensity,energy consumption structure from 1996~2015,the cointegration test shows that there exists long-term equilibrium relationship and the granger test tells that economic growth,energy consumption per unit GDP,environmental regulation intensity,and energy consumption structure is the granger cause of coal consumption.Then,by cointegration equation and setting the benchmark value of parameters,the forecasting of coal consumption between 2016~2025 are given. Last,by scenario analysis,the saving and emissions reduction potential are assessed.
First,by the data of coal consumption and economic growth,energy consumption per unit GDP,environmental regulation intensity,energy consumption structure from 1996~2015,the cointegration test shows that there exists long-term equilibrium relationship and the granger test tells that economic growth,energy consumption per unit GDP,environmental regulation intensity,and energy consumption structure is the granger cause of coal consumption.Then,by cointegration equation and setting the benchmark value of parameters,the forecasting of coal consumption between 2016~2025 are given. Last,by scenario analysis,the saving and emissions reduction potential are assessed.
引文
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[2]Balcilar M,Ozdemir Z A,Arslanturk Y.Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Causal Nexus Viewd Through a Bootsrap Rolling Window[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(6):1398~1410.
[3]Apergis N,Payne J E.Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth:Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):656~660.
[4]Narayan P K,Smyth R,Prasad A.Electricity Consumption in G7 Countries:A Panel Cointegration Analysis of Residential Demand Elasticizes[J].Energy Policy,2007,35(9):4485~4494.
[5]Soytas,U.Sari,R.Ewing,B.T.Energy Consumption,Income,and Carbon Emissions in the United States[J].Ecological Economics,2007,(62):482~489.
[6]Soytas,U.Sari,R.Energy Consumption,Economic Growth,and Carbon Emissions:Challengesfaced by an EU Candidate Member[J].Ecological Economics,2009,(68):1667~1675.
[7]Halicioglu,F.An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions,Energy Consumption,Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey[J].Energy Policy,2009,(37):1156~1164.
[8]Song,T.Zheng,T.G.Tong,L.J.An Empirical Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in China:a Panel Cointegration Approach[J].China Economic Review,2008,19:381~392.
[9]Xing-Ping Zhang,Xiao-Mei Cheng.Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions,and Economic Growth in China[J].Ecological Economics,2009,(68):2706~2712.
[10]Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour,Mohammad Ali Falahi,Malihe Ashena.Economic Growth,CO2 Emissions,and Fossil Fuels Consumption in Iran[J].Energy,2010,(35):5115~5120.
[11]Pao,H.-T.Tsai,C.-M.CO2 Emissions,Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in BRIC Countries[J].Energy Policy,2010,(38):7850~7860.
[12]韩智勇,魏一鸣,焦建玲,等.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析[J].系统工程,2004,(12):17~21.
[13]王海鹏,田澎,靳萍.基于变参数模型的中国能源消费与经济增长关系研究[J].数理统计与管理,2006,(3):253~258.
[14]王火根,沈利生.中国经济增长与能源消费空间面板分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007,(12):98~108.
[15]牟敦国.中国能源消费与经济增长的因果关系研究[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,(2):100~107.
[16]刘金全,郑挺国,宋涛.中国环境污染与经济增长之间的相关性研究[J].中国软科学,2009,(2):98~106.
[17]邓明,钱争鸣.能源消费、污染物排放与中国经济增长[J].山西财经大学学报,2010,(11):42~49.
[18]崔和瑞,王娣.基于VAR模型的我国能源-经济-环境系统研究[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2010,(2):23~28.
[19]范秋芳,崔珊,刘兰廷.基于Granger检验的能源消费与经济增长区域差异性研究[J].工业技术经济,2015,34(03):44~48.
[20]尤济红,高志刚.政府环境规制对能源效率影响的实证研究--以新疆为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(6):1211~1219.
[21]周肖肖,丰超,胡莹,等.环境规制与化石能源消耗-基于技术进步和结构变迁视角[J].中国人口资源与环境,2015,25(12):35~44.
[22]BOQIANG L,YAW,LI Z.Estimates of the Potential for Energy Conservation in the Chinese Steel Industry[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(4):360~368.