1985～2016年中国省域煤炭生产和煤炭消费重心时空演变研究
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摘要
采用中国1985~2016年煤炭生产、煤炭消费和经济数据,通过变异系数法来探析我国煤炭生产和煤炭消费的变化情况,通过重心模型来探析我国煤炭生产和煤炭消费的重心移动轨迹,通过重心耦合模型来探析我国煤炭生产和煤炭消费空间格局变化。研究表明:1985~2016年海南、内蒙古和陕西煤炭生产和煤炭消费变化最大,苏沪、辽宁和河北煤炭生产和煤炭消费变化最小;煤炭生产重心移动分为两个阶段:第一个阶段自1985~2005年从开始的不规则运动逐渐向西南移动,第二个阶段自2006~2016年稳步向西北移动。煤炭消费重心变化幅度较小,总体呈现向西向南移动的趋势,煤炭生产和煤炭消费的中心移动都与经济发展、产业转移、中西部能源基地建设等相关;煤炭生产和煤炭消费重心耦合情况,静态方面重叠性呈现先增大后减小态势,动态方面1985~2002年呈现较大波动特征,2002~2016呈现较为稳定的一致性态势。
Based on the data of coal production and consumption and economic data from 1985 to 2016,the variation coefficient method is used to analyze the change of coal production and coal consumption in China.The center of gravity model is used to explore the center of gravity of coal production and coal consumption in China,and the coordination and transformation of coal production and coal consumption pattern in China is analyzed through the center of gravity coupling model.The results showed that the coal production and coal consumption in Hainan,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi changed the most in 1985-2016.The change of coal production and coal consumption in Jiangsu,Shanghai,Liaoning and Hebei was the smallest.The shift of coal production center of gravity was divided into two stages:the first stage gradually moved southward from the beginning of the irregular movement in 1985-2005,the second stage has steadily moved northwestward from 2006 to 2016.The change of coal consumption center is small,and the trend of the movement of coal production and coal consumption is related to economic development,industrialtransfer,and central and western energy base construction,and the coupling of coal production and coal consumption center,the static square surface overlaps first and then decreases.On the dynamic side,1985-2002 showed greater volatility,and 2002-2016 showed a more stable consistency.
Based on the data of coal production and consumption and economic data from 1985 to 2016,the variation coefficient method is used to analyze the change of coal production and coal consumption in China.The center of gravity model is used to explore the center of gravity of coal production and coal consumption in China,and the coordination and transformation of coal production and coal consumption pattern in China is analyzed through the center of gravity coupling model.The results showed that the coal production and coal consumption in Hainan,Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi changed the most in 1985-2016.The change of coal production and coal consumption in Jiangsu,Shanghai,Liaoning and Hebei was the smallest.The shift of coal production center of gravity was divided into two stages:the first stage gradually moved southward from the beginning of the irregular movement in 1985-2005,the second stage has steadily moved northwestward from 2006 to 2016.The change of coal consumption center is small,and the trend of the movement of coal production and coal consumption is related to economic development,industrialtransfer,and central and western energy base construction,and the coupling of coal production and coal consumption center,the static square surface overlaps first and then decreases.On the dynamic side,1985-2002 showed greater volatility,and 2002-2016 showed a more stable consistency.
引文
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[3]王倩倩,黄贤金,陈志刚,等.我国一次能源消费的人均碳排放重心移动及原因分析[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(5):833-841.
[4]任志远,李强.1978年以来中国能源生产与消费时空差异特征[J].地理学报,2008,63(12):1318-1326.
[5]王培宏.我国煤炭生产-消费的地区性差异研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(8):97-101.
[6]赵冠伟,杨木壮,陈健飞.1990~2007年中国能源足迹时空差异分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2011,27(2):65-69.
[7]梁中,徐蓓.中国省域碳压力空间分布及其重心迁移[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):179-186.
[8]孙旭东,许璐,贾旭璠,等.中美煤炭生产和消费重心演变轨迹分析[J].中国矿业,2017,26(12):54-59.
[9]中国国家统计局.中国能源统计年鉴(1986~2017年)[J].北京:中国统计出版社.
[10]张应龙,谢永生,文曼,等.GIS支持下的陕西省粮食生产时空变异研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):150-159.
[11]ASHEIM B,DUNFORD M.Regional futures[J].Regional Studies,1997,31(3):445-455.
[12]赵淑英,王鑫.我国煤炭循环经济产业链发展模式研究[J].中国矿业,2009,18(3):52-55,59.
[13]蒋大亮,任航,张凌华,等.非洲地区人口与经济空间耦合研究[J].热带地理,2016,3(5):823-832.
[14]吴连霞,赵媛,吴开亚,等.人口结构与经济重心空间耦合演化及机制探析——以江苏省为例[J].经济问题探索,2017(12):91-101.
[15]孙晓宇,苏奋振,吕婷婷,等.黄河三角洲湿地资源时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2277-2284.
[16]李小云,杨宇,刘毅,等.1990年以来中国经济重心和人口重心时空轨迹及其耦合趋势研究[J].经济问题探索,2017(11):1-9.
[17]樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.