我国中西部煤炭消费、经济增长与雾霾污染关系研究
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摘要
文章根据我国中西部17个省份2003年到2016年煤炭消费、经济增长和雾霾污染的面板数据,构建了关于这三者的VAR模型。并运用面板矩估计、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法分析了三者之间的动态关系。研究发现:雾霾污染对煤炭消费的响应在短期内为负,而在长期表现为正,经济增长对煤炭消费的响应短期表现为正,长期为负;经济增长对煤炭消费的解释作用较强,雾霾污染更多是受煤炭消费的影响,受经济增长影响较小。
Based on panel data of China central and western provinces from 2003 to 2016,a VAR model of coal consumption,economic growth and haze pollution was constructed to study their dynamic effect. Through using GMM,impulse response function and variance decomposition,we found that the response of haze pollution to coal consumption is negative in the short term and positive in the long term. The response of economic growth to coal consumption is positive in the short term and negative in the long term. Economic growth plays a strong role in explaining coal consumption. Haze pollution is more significantly affected by coal consumption and less by economic growth.
Based on panel data of China central and western provinces from 2003 to 2016,a VAR model of coal consumption,economic growth and haze pollution was constructed to study their dynamic effect. Through using GMM,impulse response function and variance decomposition,we found that the response of haze pollution to coal consumption is negative in the short term and positive in the long term. The response of economic growth to coal consumption is positive in the short term and negative in the long term. Economic growth plays a strong role in explaining coal consumption. Haze pollution is more significantly affected by coal consumption and less by economic growth.
引文
[1]马丽梅,刘生龙,张晓.能源结构、交通模式与雾霾污染——基于空间计量模型的研究[J].财贸经济,2016,37(1):147-160.
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[6]王星.城市规模、经济增长与雾霾污染——基于省会城市面板数据的实证研究[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(7):86-92.
[7]冷艳丽,杜思正.能源价格扭曲与雾霾污染——中国的经验证据[J].产业经济研究,2016(1):71-79.
[8]Heidari,H.,Katircioglu,S. T.,Saeidpour,L. Economic Growth,CO2Emissions,and Energy Consumption in the Five ASEAN Countries. International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy System,2015(64):786-791.
[9]Balcilar M,Ozdemir Z A,Arslanturk Y. Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window[J]. Energy Economics, 2010, 32(6):1398-1410.
[10]Van Donkelaar A,Martin R V,Brauer M,et al. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter[J]. Environmental health perspectives,2015,123(2):135.
[2]曹瑞瑞,蒋震.上海市能源-经济-环境(3E)系统协调发展的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2015(12):134-136.
[3]魏巍贤,马喜立.能源结构调整与雾霾治理的最优政策选择[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(7):6-14.
[4]李小胜,张焕明.中国经济增长、污染排放与煤炭消费间动态关系研究——基于面板VAR模型的实证[J].山西财经大学学报,2013,35(11):25-34.
[5]王亮,赵涛.中国可再生煤炭消费、经济增长与碳排放的动态关系[J].技术经济,2013,32(11):99-104.
[6]王星.城市规模、经济增长与雾霾污染——基于省会城市面板数据的实证研究[J].华东经济管理,2016,30(7):86-92.
[7]冷艳丽,杜思正.能源价格扭曲与雾霾污染——中国的经验证据[J].产业经济研究,2016(1):71-79.
[8]Heidari,H.,Katircioglu,S. T.,Saeidpour,L. Economic Growth,CO2Emissions,and Energy Consumption in the Five ASEAN Countries. International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy System,2015(64):786-791.
[9]Balcilar M,Ozdemir Z A,Arslanturk Y. Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window[J]. Energy Economics, 2010, 32(6):1398-1410.
[10]Van Donkelaar A,Martin R V,Brauer M,et al. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter[J]. Environmental health perspectives,2015,123(2):135.