围场县降水变化统计与趋势分析
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摘要
根据1951～2010年围场县的降水日值资料,对围场县60a和各季降水量变化进行了统计分析,结果表明:就年变化而言,60a以来围场县年降水量以平均-4.895mm/10a的气候倾向率下降。20世纪50年代年平均降水量最多,70年代次之,80年代最少,60年代次少,2001～2010年近10a降水也偏少。年降水量不存在突变。就季节变化而言降水变化趋势因季节变化而不同,平均降水量呈下降趋势的是夏冬两季,其中夏季最为明显,降水倾向率达到-9.9mm/10a;而在春秋两季反而略显上升。季降水量的突变主要发生在夏季,其它季节突变不明显。就日变化而言近60a围场县年平均降水日数随年代变化有减少的趋势,其中除暴雨日数为略有增加的趋势外,小雨日数、中雨日数和大雨日数都呈减少的趋势,且小雨日数的减少最为明显。
Based on daily precipitation data in Weichang from 1951 to 2010,precipitation variation of each season in recent 60 years has been made a statistics.The results show that the annual precipitation in Weichang presents a downtrend with-4.895 mm/10 a climate trend rate according to annual change.The mean annual precipitation in 1950s,1960s,1970s and 1980s occupies first,second,third and last place respectively.As the same time,the precipitation is also less than normal in the nearest ten years(2001-2010) and the mutation of annual precipitation do not exist.The trend of precipitation variation is influenced by seasonal change.The downtrend of average precipitation can be observed in summer and winner,especially in summer with-9.9mm/10 a climate trend rate.However,the precipitation presents an uptrend in the fall and spring.The mutation of seasonal precipitation mainly appears in summer and the other seasons show unobvious mutation.The days of mean annual precipitation of Weichang in recent 60 years show downtrend with the affect of annual change.Except for slightly increasing of rainstorm days,the days of light rain,moderate rain and heavy rain are all present decreasing trend.The reduction of light rain days is the most obvious.
Based on daily precipitation data in Weichang from 1951 to 2010,precipitation variation of each season in recent 60 years has been made a statistics.The results show that the annual precipitation in Weichang presents a downtrend with-4.895 mm/10 a climate trend rate according to annual change.The mean annual precipitation in 1950s,1960s,1970s and 1980s occupies first,second,third and last place respectively.As the same time,the precipitation is also less than normal in the nearest ten years(2001-2010) and the mutation of annual precipitation do not exist.The trend of precipitation variation is influenced by seasonal change.The downtrend of average precipitation can be observed in summer and winner,especially in summer with-9.9mm/10 a climate trend rate.However,the precipitation presents an uptrend in the fall and spring.The mutation of seasonal precipitation mainly appears in summer and the other seasons show unobvious mutation.The days of mean annual precipitation of Weichang in recent 60 years show downtrend with the affect of annual change.Except for slightly increasing of rainstorm days,the days of light rain,moderate rain and heavy rain are all present decreasing trend.The reduction of light rain days is the most obvious.
引文
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[2]王绍武,蔡静宁,朱锦红,等.中国气候变化的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):137-145.
[3]章名立.中国东部近百年来的雨量变化[J].大气科学,1993,17(4):451-461.
[4]康丽姝,李为华,朱平盛.山东省近40年气候变化特征[J].气象科技,2006,34(1):58-59.
[5]黄嘉佑,统计动力分析与预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1993.
[6]YAMAMOTO R,IWASHIMA T,SANGA N K,et al.An analysis of climatic jump[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,1986,64(2):273-281.
[7]陈文海,柳艳香,马柱国.中国1951-1997年气候变化趋势的季节特征[J].高原气象,2002,21(3):251-257.
[8]龚道溢,韩晖.华北农牧交错带夏季极端气候的趋势分析[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):230-238.
[9]廖菲,洪延超,郑国光.地形对降水的影响研究概述[J].气象科技,2007,35(3):309-316.
[10]黄美元,徐华英.云和降水物理[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[11]江敦春,党人庆.地形和高层环境对爆发气旋影响的数值研究[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1995,31(1):154-164.
[12]文迁,谭国良,罗嗣林.降水分布受地形影响的分析[J].水文,1997(S1):63-65.