石羊河流域中下游高温事件气候特征
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摘要
根据石羊河流域中游(武威)和下游(民勤)气象站1960—2015年逐日最高、平均气温观测数据,采用固定阈值法(天气标准)和百分位阈值法(平均标准)定义了高温事件,运用气候统计学方法分析了该区域高温事件强度、日数和极值的变化特征。统计结果显示,中、下游年代、年天气标准和平均标准高温事件强度总体上呈增强和日数呈增多趋势,2010—2015年高温事件强度增强和日数增多趋势明显,高温事件极值也呈增强趋势。高温事件出现在5—9月,高温事件强度和日数的高峰值均在7月,依次向两端递减。高温事件强度和日数均为下游>中游,说明闷热天气持续时间下游比中游更长。高温事件中、下游年天气标准强度和日数时间序列没有发生周期性变化,平均标准强度和日数时间序列均存在着5～7 a的准周期变化。高温事件中、下游天气标准强度和日数以及平均标准强度均没有发生气候突变,平均标准日数发生了气候突变,突变时间中游在1997年、下游在1996年。年高温事件存在一定的异常性,高温事件强度和日数正常年份概率在58.9%～73.2%,对生命健康和安全生产造成危害的强度偏强和特强年份概率在14.3%～16.9%、日数偏多和特多年份概率在14.3%～21.4%。
The standards of high temperature events were defined by fixed threshold and percentile threshold method,according to the observation data of daily maximum and average temperature of the middle reaches(Wuwei) and lower reaches(Minqin) weather stations in Shiyang River Basin during 1960-2015. Variation characteristics of intensity and days and extreme value of high temperature events were analyzed with climatic statistical method in the region. The statistical results showed that decadal and annual high temperature events intensity and days on weather standard and average standard assume increasing trend in the middle reaches and lower reaches,and increasing trends are obvious from 2010 to 2015,extreme values of high temperature events also show increasing trend.High temperature events occur only from May to September,peak values of strength and days occur in July,and in turn descending to tow ends. Intensity of high temperature events are far stronger in the lower reaches than that in the middle reaches and days are far more in the lower reaches than that in the middle reaches,and it shows that duration of hot weather is longer in the lower reaches than that in the middle reaches. Time series of high temperature events intensity and days on weather standard have no quasi periodic variations,intensity and days on average standard have quasi periodic variation of 5-7 a in the middle and the lower reaches. High temperature events intensity and days on weather standard and intensity on average standard have no abrupt changes,and days on average standard have abrupt changes,mutation year is 1997 in the middle reaches and 1996 in the lower reaches.Annual high temperature events have certain abnormal,normal year probabilities of intensity and days are 58.9%-73.2%,strong and very strong year probabilities of intensity are 14.3%-16.9% and more and very more year probabilities of days are 14.3%～21.4%.
The standards of high temperature events were defined by fixed threshold and percentile threshold method,according to the observation data of daily maximum and average temperature of the middle reaches(Wuwei) and lower reaches(Minqin) weather stations in Shiyang River Basin during 1960-2015. Variation characteristics of intensity and days and extreme value of high temperature events were analyzed with climatic statistical method in the region. The statistical results showed that decadal and annual high temperature events intensity and days on weather standard and average standard assume increasing trend in the middle reaches and lower reaches,and increasing trends are obvious from 2010 to 2015,extreme values of high temperature events also show increasing trend.High temperature events occur only from May to September,peak values of strength and days occur in July,and in turn descending to tow ends. Intensity of high temperature events are far stronger in the lower reaches than that in the middle reaches and days are far more in the lower reaches than that in the middle reaches,and it shows that duration of hot weather is longer in the lower reaches than that in the middle reaches. Time series of high temperature events intensity and days on weather standard have no quasi periodic variations,intensity and days on average standard have quasi periodic variation of 5-7 a in the middle and the lower reaches. High temperature events intensity and days on weather standard and intensity on average standard have no abrupt changes,and days on average standard have abrupt changes,mutation year is 1997 in the middle reaches and 1996 in the lower reaches.Annual high temperature events have certain abnormal,normal year probabilities of intensity and days are 58.9%-73.2%,strong and very strong year probabilities of intensity are 14.3%-16.9% and more and very more year probabilities of days are 14.3%～21.4%.
引文
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[25]黄嘉佑.气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1995,21(7):54-57.
[26]李玲萍,李庆玉,李岩瑛.河西走廊东部高温天气气候特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):35-40.
[2]程炳岩,丁裕国,何卷雄.全球变暖对区域极端气温出现概率的影响[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(4):429-435.
[3]王鹏祥,杨金虎.中国西北近45a来极端高温事件及其对区域性增暖的响应[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(4):649-655.
[4]徐金芳,邓振镛,陈敏.中国高温热浪危害特征的研究综述[J].干旱气象,2009,27(2):163-167.
[5]M Nogaj,P Yiou,S Parey,et al.Amplitude and frequency of temperature extremes over the North Atlantic region[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(10):328-340.
[6]G Gruza,E Rankova,V Razuvaev et al.Indicators of climate change for the Russian Federation[J].Climatic Change,1999,42(1):219-242.
[7]翟盘茂,任福民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.
[8]王冀,蒋大凯,张英娟.华北地区极端气候事件的时空变化规律分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):166-173.
[9]任朝霞,杨达源.近40a西北干旱区极端气候变化趋势研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(4):10-13.
[10]龚志强,王晓娟,支蓉,等.中国近58年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系[J].物理学报,2009,58(6):4342-4353.
[11]陈磊,王式功,尚可政,等.中国西北地区大范围极端高温事件的大气环流异常特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,30(4):1052-1058.
[12]李玲萍,薛新玲,李岩瑛,等.1961-2005年河西走廊东部极端气温事件变化[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(1):43-51.
[13]杨晓玲,丁文魁,杨金虎.河西走廊东部近50年高、低温气候特征分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(11):6583-6586.
[14]白肇烨,徐国昌,孙学筠,等.中国西北天气[M].北京:气象出版社,1991:258-357.
[15]中国气象局.重要天气预报质量评分办法[M].北京:气象出版社,1990:15-17.
[16]李庆祥,黄嘉佑.对我国极端高温事件阈值的探讨[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(2):138-144.
[17]严中伟,杨赤.近几十年中国极端气候变化格局[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(3):267-272.
[18]邹京发.运用平均值和均方差判断指标的异常波动[J].冶金动力,1981,(1):55-56.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].第二版.北京:气象出版社,2007:37-41.
[20]施能,马丽,袁晓玉,等.近50 a浙江省气候变化特征分析[J].南京气象学院学报,2001,24(2):207-213.
[21]Livezey R E,Chen W Y.Statistical filed significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques[J].Monthly Weather Review,1983,111(1):46-59.
[22]王媛媛,张勃.陇东地区近51 a气温时空变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(5):1402-1407.
[23]周石清,陈建江,耿峻岭.单因子方差分析法对三屯河年均流量序列的周期分析[J].新疆水利,2001,122(3):25-29.
[24]杜军,李春,廖健,等.近45年拉萨浅层地温对气候变化的响应[J].气象,2007,33(10):61-67.
[25]黄嘉佑.气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1995,21(7):54-57.
[26]李玲萍,李庆玉,李岩瑛.河西走廊东部高温天气气候特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(2):35-40.