中国村域人口空心化分异机制及重构策略
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摘要
村域人口空心化是乡村地域系统发生剧烈演化的直接原因,也是乡村发展所需各类人才资源流失、主体日渐老弱化的关键所在,如何有效缓解村域人口空心化,对区域经济协调发展和乡村振兴有着重要的现实意义。文章运用综合测评法对村域人口空心化程度进行测度,并结合多元线性回归和地理探测器等模型方法,得出影响村域人口空心化的主要因素,揭示其空间分异机制,从而探究重构策略。结果表明:①村域人口空心化空间分布具有明显地域差异性,西部扬黄灌区村域人口空心化均值为18.27%,中部干旱山区为21.78%,东部旱作塬区为20.37%,整体呈现西部低、中东部较高的趋势;②影响村域人口空心化的主要因素为行政村海拔、贫困发生率、地面坡度和城乡居民收入差距,其影响力q值分别为0.63、0.56、0.39、0.35;③村域人口空心化分异机制是多种因素相互作用的结果,且任何两种因素的交互作用都要大于单个因素的独自作用。文章基于村域人口空心化分异机制,分别从空间、经济和社会等方面探究乡村重构策略,为实现城乡融合发展和乡村振兴提供参考依据。
Rural population hollowing is the direct cause of the dramatic evolution of the rural regional system, and it is also the key to the loss of all kinds of human resources needed for the rural development and the aging and weakening of subject, how to effectively alleviate the rural population hollowing has a great practical significance to the coordinated development of regional economy and rural revitalization. This paper uses the comprehensive evaluation method to measure the degree of rural population hollowing, combines the methods of multiple linear regression and geographical detector to find out the main factors influencing rural population hollowing and reveals its spatial differentiation mechanism so as to explore its reconstruction strategy. The results showed that: 1) spatial distribution of the rural population hollowing has obvious regional differences, the average of population hollowing in Yanghuang irrigation area of the west rural was 18.27%, the central arid mountain area was 21.78%, the eastern rainfed tableland area is 20.37%, the overall trend is lower in the west than the middle east; 2) the main factors influencing the rural population hollowing are altitude of administrative villages, poverty rate, terrain slope and income gap between urban and rural residents which q values are 0.63, 0.56, 0.39, 0.35, respectively; 3) differentiation mechanism of the rural population hollowing is the result of interaction of many factors, and interactions of any two factors are larger than a single factor alone; 4) based on differentiation mechanism of rural population hollowing, this paper probes into the rural reconstruction strategies from the aspects of space, economy and society respectively and provides a reference basis for realizing urban and rural integration development and rural revitalization.
Rural population hollowing is the direct cause of the dramatic evolution of the rural regional system, and it is also the key to the loss of all kinds of human resources needed for the rural development and the aging and weakening of subject, how to effectively alleviate the rural population hollowing has a great practical significance to the coordinated development of regional economy and rural revitalization. This paper uses the comprehensive evaluation method to measure the degree of rural population hollowing, combines the methods of multiple linear regression and geographical detector to find out the main factors influencing rural population hollowing and reveals its spatial differentiation mechanism so as to explore its reconstruction strategy. The results showed that: 1) spatial distribution of the rural population hollowing has obvious regional differences, the average of population hollowing in Yanghuang irrigation area of the west rural was 18.27%, the central arid mountain area was 21.78%, the eastern rainfed tableland area is 20.37%, the overall trend is lower in the west than the middle east; 2) the main factors influencing the rural population hollowing are altitude of administrative villages, poverty rate, terrain slope and income gap between urban and rural residents which q values are 0.63, 0.56, 0.39, 0.35, respectively; 3) differentiation mechanism of the rural population hollowing is the result of interaction of many factors, and interactions of any two factors are larger than a single factor alone; 4) based on differentiation mechanism of rural population hollowing, this paper probes into the rural reconstruction strategies from the aspects of space, economy and society respectively and provides a reference basis for realizing urban and rural integration development and rural revitalization.
引文
[1]刘彦随,刘玉,翟荣新.中国农村空心化的地理学研究与整治实践[J].地理学报,2009,64(10):1 193-1 202.
[2]刘彦随,刘玉.中国农村空心化问题研究的进展与展望[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):35-42.
[3] Yurui Li,Yansui Liu,Hualou Long,et al. Community-based rural residential land consolidation and allocation can help to revitalize hollowed villages in traditional agricultural areas of China:Evidence from Dancheng County,Henan Province[J]. Land Use Policy,2014,39:188-198.
[4]杨忍,刘彦随,郭丽英,等.环渤海地区农村空心化程度与耕地利用集约度的时空变化及其耦合关系[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(2):181-190.
[5]龙花楼.论土地整治与乡村空间重构[J].地理学报,2013,68(8):1 019-1 028.
[6] Yansui Liu,Yuheng Li. Revitalize the world’s countryside[J].Nature,2017,16(8):275-277.
[7]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):637-650.
[8] Wang H,Wang L,Su F,et al. Rural residential properties in China:Land use patterns,efficiency and prospects for reform[J].China Habitat International,2012,36(2):201-209.
[9]龙花楼,李裕瑞,刘彦随.中国空心化村庄演化特征及其动力机制[J].地理学报,2009,64(10):1 203-1 213.
[10]潘竟虎,李瑶.甘肃省县域单元农村空心化差异的PCA-ESDA测度[J].人口与发展,2013,19(6):65-73.
[11]杨忍,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国农村空心化综合测度与分区[J].地理研究,2012,31(9):1 697-1 706.
[12]宇林军,孙大帅,张定祥,等.基于农户调研的中国农村居民点空心化程度研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):1 043-1 049.
[13]谭雪兰,刘卓,贺艳华,等.江南丘陵区农村居民点地域分异特征及类型划分.地理研究,2015,34(11):2 144-2 154.
[14]徐安琪,高雪松,李启权,等.平原村落空心化特征分析及类型识别[J].资源科学,2016,38(2):196-205.
[15]宋伟,陈百明,张英.中国村庄宅基地空心化评价及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2013,32(1):20-28.
[16]王介勇,刘彦随,陈秧分,等.农村空心化程度影响因素的实证研究:基于山东省村庄调查数据[J].自然资源学报,2013,38(1):10-18.
[17] Chen R S,Ye C,Cai Y L,et al. The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China:Past,present and trend[J].Land Use Policy,2014,40:101-110.
[18]王国刚,刘彦随,王介勇.中国农村空心化演进机理与调控策略[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(1):34-40.
[19] Sun Hu,Liu Yansui,Xu Keshuail.Hollow Villages and Rural Restructuring in Major Rural Regions of China:A Case Study of Yucheng City,Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2011,21(3):354-363.
[20]原野,师学义,牛姝烨,等.基于GWR模型的晋城市村庄空心化驱动力研究[J].经济地理,2015,38(7):148-155.
[21] Liu Y,Yang R,Li Y. Potential of land consolidation of hollowed villages under different urbanization scenarios in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(3):503-512.
[22]刘晶,金晓斌,范业婷,等.基于“城—村—地”三维视角的农村居民点整理策略——以江苏省新沂市为例[J].地理研究,2018,37(4):678-694.
[23]刘玉,刘彦随,郭丽英.环渤海地区农村居民点用地整理分区及其整治策略[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(6):306-312.
[24]姜绍静,罗泮.空心村问题研究进展与成果综述[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(6):51-58.
[25]周祝平.中国农村人口空心化及其挑战[J].人口研究,2008,32(2):45-52.
[26]陈坤秋,王良健,李宁慧.中国县域人口空心化——内涵、格局与机理[J].人口与经济,2018(1):28-37.
[27]刘巍.农村人口空心化现状及影响因素分析[D].南京:南京师范大学,2011.
[28]郑万军,王文彬.基于人力资本视角的农村人口空心化治理[J].农村经济,2015(12):100-104.
[29]陈涛,陈池波.中国农村人口空心化测量指标改进研究[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2017,17(1):149-155.
[30]王良健,陈坤秋,李宁慧.中国县域人口空心化程度的测度及时空分异特征[J].人口学刊,2017,39(5):14-24.
[31]陈涛,陈池波.人口外流背景下县域城镇化与人口空心化耦合评价研究[J].农业经济问题(月刊),2017(4):58-66.
[32]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.
[33]杨忍,刘彦随,龙花楼,等.基于格网的农村居民点用地时空特征及空间指向性的地理要素识别——以环渤海地区为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1 077-1 087.
[34]丁悦,蔡建明,任周鹏,等.基于地理探测器的国家级经济技术开发区经济增长率空间分异及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(5):657-666.
[35]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.
[36]龙花楼,屠爽爽.论乡村重构[J].地理学报,2017,72(4):563-576.
[37] Shuangshuang Tu,Hualou Long,Yingnan Zhang,et al. Rural restructuring at village level under rapid urbanization in metropolitan suburbs of China and its implications for innovations in land use policy[J]. Habitat International,2018,77:143-152.
[38]龙花楼,屠爽爽,戈大专.新型城镇化对扶贫开发的影响与应对研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):309-319.
[2]刘彦随,刘玉.中国农村空心化问题研究的进展与展望[J].地理研究,2010,29(1):35-42.
[3] Yurui Li,Yansui Liu,Hualou Long,et al. Community-based rural residential land consolidation and allocation can help to revitalize hollowed villages in traditional agricultural areas of China:Evidence from Dancheng County,Henan Province[J]. Land Use Policy,2014,39:188-198.
[4]杨忍,刘彦随,郭丽英,等.环渤海地区农村空心化程度与耕地利用集约度的时空变化及其耦合关系[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(2):181-190.
[5]龙花楼.论土地整治与乡村空间重构[J].地理学报,2013,68(8):1 019-1 028.
[6] Yansui Liu,Yuheng Li. Revitalize the world’s countryside[J].Nature,2017,16(8):275-277.
[7]刘彦随.中国新时代城乡融合与乡村振兴[J].地理学报,2018,73(4):637-650.
[8] Wang H,Wang L,Su F,et al. Rural residential properties in China:Land use patterns,efficiency and prospects for reform[J].China Habitat International,2012,36(2):201-209.
[9]龙花楼,李裕瑞,刘彦随.中国空心化村庄演化特征及其动力机制[J].地理学报,2009,64(10):1 203-1 213.
[10]潘竟虎,李瑶.甘肃省县域单元农村空心化差异的PCA-ESDA测度[J].人口与发展,2013,19(6):65-73.
[11]杨忍,刘彦随,陈秧分.中国农村空心化综合测度与分区[J].地理研究,2012,31(9):1 697-1 706.
[12]宇林军,孙大帅,张定祥,等.基于农户调研的中国农村居民点空心化程度研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(7):1 043-1 049.
[13]谭雪兰,刘卓,贺艳华,等.江南丘陵区农村居民点地域分异特征及类型划分.地理研究,2015,34(11):2 144-2 154.
[14]徐安琪,高雪松,李启权,等.平原村落空心化特征分析及类型识别[J].资源科学,2016,38(2):196-205.
[15]宋伟,陈百明,张英.中国村庄宅基地空心化评价及其影响因素[J].地理研究,2013,32(1):20-28.
[16]王介勇,刘彦随,陈秧分,等.农村空心化程度影响因素的实证研究:基于山东省村庄调查数据[J].自然资源学报,2013,38(1):10-18.
[17] Chen R S,Ye C,Cai Y L,et al. The impact of rural out-migration on land use transition in China:Past,present and trend[J].Land Use Policy,2014,40:101-110.
[18]王国刚,刘彦随,王介勇.中国农村空心化演进机理与调控策略[J].农业现代化研究,2015,36(1):34-40.
[19] Sun Hu,Liu Yansui,Xu Keshuail.Hollow Villages and Rural Restructuring in Major Rural Regions of China:A Case Study of Yucheng City,Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Geographical Science,2011,21(3):354-363.
[20]原野,师学义,牛姝烨,等.基于GWR模型的晋城市村庄空心化驱动力研究[J].经济地理,2015,38(7):148-155.
[21] Liu Y,Yang R,Li Y. Potential of land consolidation of hollowed villages under different urbanization scenarios in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(3):503-512.
[22]刘晶,金晓斌,范业婷,等.基于“城—村—地”三维视角的农村居民点整理策略——以江苏省新沂市为例[J].地理研究,2018,37(4):678-694.
[23]刘玉,刘彦随,郭丽英.环渤海地区农村居民点用地整理分区及其整治策略[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(6):306-312.
[24]姜绍静,罗泮.空心村问题研究进展与成果综述[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(6):51-58.
[25]周祝平.中国农村人口空心化及其挑战[J].人口研究,2008,32(2):45-52.
[26]陈坤秋,王良健,李宁慧.中国县域人口空心化——内涵、格局与机理[J].人口与经济,2018(1):28-37.
[27]刘巍.农村人口空心化现状及影响因素分析[D].南京:南京师范大学,2011.
[28]郑万军,王文彬.基于人力资本视角的农村人口空心化治理[J].农村经济,2015(12):100-104.
[29]陈涛,陈池波.中国农村人口空心化测量指标改进研究[J].中国地质大学学报:社会科学版,2017,17(1):149-155.
[30]王良健,陈坤秋,李宁慧.中国县域人口空心化程度的测度及时空分异特征[J].人口学刊,2017,39(5):14-24.
[31]陈涛,陈池波.人口外流背景下县域城镇化与人口空心化耦合评价研究[J].农业经济问题(月刊),2017(4):58-66.
[32]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.
[33]杨忍,刘彦随,龙花楼,等.基于格网的农村居民点用地时空特征及空间指向性的地理要素识别——以环渤海地区为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1 077-1 087.
[34]丁悦,蔡建明,任周鹏,等.基于地理探测器的国家级经济技术开发区经济增长率空间分异及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(5):657-666.
[35]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.
[36]龙花楼,屠爽爽.论乡村重构[J].地理学报,2017,72(4):563-576.
[37] Shuangshuang Tu,Hualou Long,Yingnan Zhang,et al. Rural restructuring at village level under rapid urbanization in metropolitan suburbs of China and its implications for innovations in land use policy[J]. Habitat International,2018,77:143-152.
[38]龙花楼,屠爽爽,戈大专.新型城镇化对扶贫开发的影响与应对研究[J].中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):309-319.