产业结构优化对物流业发展的作用机理与实证研究
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摘要
从传导路径和数理模型2个方面分析了产业结构优化对物流业发展的作用机理,为了验证所得的假设,构建了产业结构高级化与产业结构合理化2个产业结构优化指标,并使用31个省市1986—2015年的面板数据,实证分析了产业结构优化与物流业发展水平的关系.研究表明:产业结构高级化显著促进了物流业发展;产业结构合理化在一定程度上也具有促进作用.在此基础上,构建了动态面板模型,研究结果与上述结论相契合,但各个地区存在较显著的差异.
The mechanism of industrial structure optimization on the development of logistics industry from two aspects of conduction path and mathematical model is analyzed. In order to verify the assumptions made by the mathematical model,two indicators have been constructed for optimizing the industrial structure,which are the advanced industrial structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure. And using panel data from 31 provinces and cities from 1986 to 2015,the relationship between industrial structure optimization and logistics industry development level is empirically studied. Research shows that the advanced industrial structure significantly promotes the development of the logistics industry,the rationalization of industrial structure also plays a promoting role to a certain extent. On this basis,a dynamic panel model is constructed and the results are in agreement with the above conclusions,but there are significant differences in various regions.
The mechanism of industrial structure optimization on the development of logistics industry from two aspects of conduction path and mathematical model is analyzed. In order to verify the assumptions made by the mathematical model,two indicators have been constructed for optimizing the industrial structure,which are the advanced industrial structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure. And using panel data from 31 provinces and cities from 1986 to 2015,the relationship between industrial structure optimization and logistics industry development level is empirically studied. Research shows that the advanced industrial structure significantly promotes the development of the logistics industry,the rationalization of industrial structure also plays a promoting role to a certain extent. On this basis,a dynamic panel model is constructed and the results are in agreement with the above conclusions,but there are significant differences in various regions.
引文
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[15]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16.
[16]魏修建,陈恒.物流发展驱动要素对经济增长贡献度的区域差异性研究:基于丝绸之路经济带西北地区面板数据模型的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2014(6):14-22.
[17]倪秋萍,唐远翔.我国物流产业集聚现状、影响因素及发展策略[J].改革与战略,2017(7):165-168.
[18]唐建荣,张鑫和.物流业发展的时空演化、驱动因素及溢出效应研究:基于中国省域面板数据的空间计量分析[J].财贸研究,2017(5):11-21.
[19]Arellano M,Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data:monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[2]陈晓玥.产业结构对现代物流业发展的影响:基于我国东南沿海六省面板数据的实证研究[J].重庆交通大学学报:社会科学版,2014(4):24-27.
[3]钟俊娟,王健.我国物流业与三次产业的关联度:基于产业融合视角[J].技术经济,2013,32(2):39-44.
[4]张宝友,孟丽君,黄祖庆.物流产业标准与产业升级的关联性研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2012(3):58-67.
[5]罗永华.产业结构变动对物流需求影响的实证分析:以茂名市为例[J].价值工程,2010,29(10):13-15.
[6] Qin Lu,Liu Kai. Analysis on regional logistics demand based on industrial structure[J]. Logistics Technology,2006(7):4-6.
[7]刘浩.产业结构调整对区域物流需求的影响研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2012.
[8]张可明,乔丽.城市产业结构对物流需求的影响[J].铁道运输与经济,2006,28(7):30-32.
[9]聂规划,李海林.基于产业结构的物流需求研究[J].中国集体经济,2009(9):108-109.
[10]沈江,张婷.物流业发展对中部地区产业结构状况的影响分析[J].统计与决策,2012(5):147-150.
[11]林毅夫.发展战略、自生能力和经济收敛[J].经济学:季刊,2002,1(2):269-300.
[12]黄茂兴,李军军.技术选择、产业结构升级与经济增长[J].经济研究,2009,44(7):143-151.
[13]王健,刘荷.区域物流发展的影响因素研究:基于福建省的实证分析[J].华东经济管理,2014(3):22-27.
[14]徐德云.产业结构升级形态决定、测度的一个理论解释及验证[J].财政研究,2008(1):46-49.
[15]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011(5):4-16.
[16]魏修建,陈恒.物流发展驱动要素对经济增长贡献度的区域差异性研究:基于丝绸之路经济带西北地区面板数据模型的实证分析[J].上海经济研究,2014(6):14-22.
[17]倪秋萍,唐远翔.我国物流产业集聚现状、影响因素及发展策略[J].改革与战略,2017(7):165-168.
[18]唐建荣,张鑫和.物流业发展的时空演化、驱动因素及溢出效应研究:基于中国省域面板数据的空间计量分析[J].财贸研究,2017(5):11-21.
[19]Arellano M,Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data:monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.