我国焦煤资源供需形势及价格影响因素分析
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摘要
通过对我国焦煤供应和需求的各个环节进行分析,指出了我国焦煤资源的供需现状及发展形势。供应方面,在去产能和环保等政策的作用下我国焦煤供给逐年减少;需求方面,在粗钢生产增加的作用下需求增加,但未来一段时间较为疲软。我国焦煤供需形势从2015年之前的供大于求到近年的供应偏紧,在2019年将得到大幅缓解。2019年国内焦煤资源供给缺口缩小,经过周期性升降在2022年以后趋于稳定。此外,分析了焦煤资源价格影响因素,认为供需格局是影响价格的基本因素,政策因素通过影响供需基本面起作用,成本因素对价格起支撑作用,焦煤价格具有周期性且与PPI周期相匹配。
By analyzing the supply and demand of coking coal resources in China,this paper points out the supply and demand situation of coking coal resources in China.On the supply side,China's coking coal resources supply has been decreasing year by year under the effect of policies such as cutting production capacity and environmental protection.On the demand side,with the increase of crude steel production,the demand increases,but it will be relatively weak in the future.China's coking coal resources supply and demand situation from the oversupply before 2015 to the tight supply in recent years,and will be a significant relief in 2019.The supply gap of domestic coking coal resources will be narrowed considerably in 2019,and it will stabilize after cyclical rise and fall after 2022.In addition,the paper analyzes the factors affecting the price of coking coal resources,and puts forward the view that the supply and demand pattern is the basic factor affecting the price,policy play a role by influencing the supply and demand,cost play a supporting role in price,the price of coking coal is cyclical and matches the PPI cycle.
By analyzing the supply and demand of coking coal resources in China,this paper points out the supply and demand situation of coking coal resources in China.On the supply side,China's coking coal resources supply has been decreasing year by year under the effect of policies such as cutting production capacity and environmental protection.On the demand side,with the increase of crude steel production,the demand increases,but it will be relatively weak in the future.China's coking coal resources supply and demand situation from the oversupply before 2015 to the tight supply in recent years,and will be a significant relief in 2019.The supply gap of domestic coking coal resources will be narrowed considerably in 2019,and it will stabilize after cyclical rise and fall after 2022.In addition,the paper analyzes the factors affecting the price of coking coal resources,and puts forward the view that the supply and demand pattern is the basic factor affecting the price,policy play a role by influencing the supply and demand,cost play a supporting role in price,the price of coking coal is cyclical and matches the PPI cycle.
引文
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[12]刘永丽.全国煤炭产能运行情况详解[N].中国煤炭报,2019-01-10(007).
[2]李丽英.我国炼焦煤产业供需形势及发展对策研究[J].煤炭工程,2018,50(4):141-143.LI Liying.Study on supply and demand situation and development countermeasures of coking coal industry in China[J].Coal Engineering,2018,50(4):141-143.
[3]李丽英,郭煜东.我国炼焦煤资源储备及开发利用研究[J].煤炭经济研究,2017,37(9):30-34.LI Liying,GUO Yudong.Study on reserves and development utilization of China coking coal resources[J].Coal Economic Research,2017,37(9):30-34.
[4]邓小利,徐飞,王遂正.中国稀缺炼焦煤资源分布特征[J].中国煤炭地质,2018,30(6):26-29.DENG Xiaoli,XU Fei,WANG Suizheng.Scarce coking coal resource distribution features in China[J].Coal Geology of China,2018,30(6):26-29.
[5]王骏.我国炼焦煤对外贸易分析与煤-焦-铁价格动态关系研究[J].国际商务,2009(2):22-27.WANG Jun.Analysis on international trade of Chinas coking coal and research on the prices dynamic relation about coking coal-coke-pigiron[J].International Business,2009(2):22-27.
[6]李莎.环保高压下的钢铁专题二:钢铁VS焦炭[R].广发证券研究报告,2017-09-01.
[7]中国煤炭资源网.1月份中国煤炭成本曲线及盈亏分析[EB/OL].[2019-02-21].http:∥www.sxcoal.com/news/4587413/info/info.
[8]中国煤炭资源网.3月份中国煤炭成本曲线及盈亏分析[EB/OL].[2018-04-20].http:∥www.sxcoal.com/news/4571317/info.
[9]中国煤炭资源网.6月份中国煤炭成本曲线及盈亏分析[EB/OL].[2017-07-24].http:∥www.sxcoal.com/news/4559115/info.
[10]中国煤炭资源网.9月份中国煤炭成本曲线及盈亏分析[EB/OL].[2016-10-24].http:∥www.sxcoal.com/news/4548403/info.
[11]中国煤炭资源网.12月份中国煤炭成本曲线及盈亏分析[EB/OL].[2016-01-11].http:∥www.sxcoal.com/news/4480772/info.
[12]刘永丽.全国煤炭产能运行情况详解[N].中国煤炭报,2019-01-10(007).