数据驱动的技术预测之研究评析——以FUSE项目为例
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摘要
数据驱动的技术预测具有较高的现实意义和研究价值,已获得美国、日本等发达国家政府和学术界的高度重视,美国情报高级研究计划署(IARPA)的FUSE项目就是基于海量科技信息预测新兴技术的典型研究实践活动。文章从技术视角对FUSE项目产出的重要论文、专利和会议交流材料等进行分类梳理和深入研究。从中分析其主要研究成果和实现思路,并在此基础上提出对数据驱动的技术预测的综合启示。
Data-driven technology forecasting has high practical significance and research value,and has been highly valued by the government and academia of developed countries such as the United States and Japan.The FUSE project of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity(IARPA) is a typical research and practice activity to forecast emerging technologies based on massive scientific and technological information.This paper systematically combs and deeply studies the important papers,patents and conference communication materials produced by the teams of FUSE project from a technical perspective.The main achievements and the corresponding implementation ideas are analyzed,and comprehensive enlightenment of data-driven technology forecasting is put forward.
Data-driven technology forecasting has high practical significance and research value,and has been highly valued by the government and academia of developed countries such as the United States and Japan.The FUSE project of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity(IARPA) is a typical research and practice activity to forecast emerging technologies based on massive scientific and technological information.This paper systematically combs and deeply studies the important papers,patents and conference communication materials produced by the teams of FUSE project from a technical perspective.The main achievements and the corresponding implementation ideas are analyzed,and comprehensive enlightenment of data-driven technology forecasting is put forward.
引文
[1] IARPA.Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition (FUSE)[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/fuse.
[2] Artificial intelligence may tell us what’s going to be big in science this year[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.science20.com/news_articles/artificial_intelligence_may_tell_us_whats_going_to_be_big_in_science_this_year-165373,2016.
[3] 陈美华,王延飞.科技管理决策中的地平线扫描方法应用评析[J].情报理论与实践,2017(12):63-68.
[4] MURDICK D.Finding patterns of emergence-Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition (FUSE)[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.cendi.gov/presentations/01_09_14_FUSE.pdf,2014.
[5] IARPA.Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest.
[6] MURDICK D.Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition (FUSE)[EB/OL].https://www.iarpa.gov/images/files/programs/fuse/04-FUSE.pdf.
[7] MURDICK D.Finding patterns of emergence in science and technology[EB/OL].https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA573524,2012.
[8] ALEXANDER J,BACHE K,CHASE J,et al.An exploratory study of interdisciplinarity and breakthrough ideas[C]//Proceedings of Picmet’13:Technology Management in the It-Driven Services.IEEE,2013:2130-2140.
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[10] BOYACK K W,KLAVANS R,SMALL H,et al.Characterizing the emergence of two nanotechnology topics using a contemporaneous global micro-model of science[J].Journal of Engineering & Technology Management,2014,32(32):147-159.
[11] MCKEOWN K,DAUME III H,CHATURVEDI S,et al.Predicting the impact of scientific concepts using full-text features[J].Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology,2016,67(11):2684-2696.
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[14] BABKO-MALAYA O,MEYERS A,PUSTEJOVSKY J,et al.Modeling debate within a scientific community[C]//International Conference on Social Intelligence and Technology.IEEE Computer Society,2013:57-63.
[15] WOLCOTT H N,FOUCH M J,HSU E R,et al.Modeling time-dependent and -independent indicators to facilitate identification of breakthrough research papers[J].Scientometrics,2016,107(2):807-817.
[16] BREITZMAN A,THOMAS P.The emerging clusters model:a tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems[J].Research Policy,2015,44(1):195-205.
[17] BABKO-MALAYA O,HUNTER D,SEIDEL A,et al.Flexible creation of indicators of scientific and technological emergence:emerging phenomena and big data[C].IEEE International Conference on Intelligence & Security Informatics IEEE,2013:7-9.
[18] MEYERSY A,LEE G,et al.Annotating relations in scientific articles[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Annotating-Relations-in-Scientific-Articles-Meyers-Lee/e815513cf1f5cfccb938ba25ed04189b48252ccf.
[19] SMALL H,BOYACK K W,KLAVANS R.Identifying emerging topics in science and technology[J].Research Policy,2014,43(8):1450-1467.
[20] BABKO-MALAYA O,HUNTER D B,SEIDEL A C,et al.A method for detection and characterization of technical emergence and associated methods[EB/OL].http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y201610292573.html.
[21] MICHAELIS J R,MCGUINNESS D L,CHANG C,et al.Explaining scientific and technical emergence forecasting[M]//Applications of social media and social network analysis.Springer International Publishing,2015.
[22] MICHAELIS J R,MCGUINNESS D L,CHANG C,et al.Towards explanation of scientific and technological emergence[C]//IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis & Mining,2013.
[23] SemEval-2018 task 7 semantic relation extraction and classification in scientific papers[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/17422.
[24] SemEval-2017 Task 10:scienceIE-extracting keyphrases and relations from scientific publications[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].http://alt.qcri.org/semeval2017/task10/.
[25] Measuring tech emergence[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].https://vpinstitute.org/academic-portal/tech-emergence-contest/.
[2] Artificial intelligence may tell us what’s going to be big in science this year[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.science20.com/news_articles/artificial_intelligence_may_tell_us_whats_going_to_be_big_in_science_this_year-165373,2016.
[3] 陈美华,王延飞.科技管理决策中的地平线扫描方法应用评析[J].情报理论与实践,2017(12):63-68.
[4] MURDICK D.Finding patterns of emergence-Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition (FUSE)[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.cendi.gov/presentations/01_09_14_FUSE.pdf,2014.
[5] IARPA.Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)[EB/OL].[2018-12-10].https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest.
[6] MURDICK D.Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition (FUSE)[EB/OL].https://www.iarpa.gov/images/files/programs/fuse/04-FUSE.pdf.
[7] MURDICK D.Finding patterns of emergence in science and technology[EB/OL].https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA573524,2012.
[8] ALEXANDER J,BACHE K,CHASE J,et al.An exploratory study of interdisciplinarity and breakthrough ideas[C]//Proceedings of Picmet’13:Technology Management in the It-Driven Services.IEEE,2013:2130-2140.
[9] BOYACK K W,KLAVANS R.Co-citation analysis,bibliographic coupling,and direct[J].Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology,2014,61(12):2389-2404.
[10] BOYACK K W,KLAVANS R,SMALL H,et al.Characterizing the emergence of two nanotechnology topics using a contemporaneous global micro-model of science[J].Journal of Engineering & Technology Management,2014,32(32):147-159.
[11] MCKEOWN K,DAUME III H,CHATURVEDI S,et al.Predicting the impact of scientific concepts using full-text features[J].Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology,2016,67(11):2684-2696.
[12] ANICK P,VERHAGEN M,PUSTEJOVSKY J.Extracting aspects and polarity from patents[C]//COLING Workshop on Synchronic and Diachronic Approaches To Analyzing Technical Language,2014:31-39.
[13] BABKO-MALAYA O,SEIDEL A,L HUNTER D,HANDUBER J,TORRELLI M,BARLOS F.Forecasting technology emergence from metadata and language of scientific publications and patents[EB/OL].https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Forecasting-Technology-Emergence-from-Metadata-and-Bab-ko-Malaya-Seidel/8e372de588547b8c457f280d098acd0ddcd4a99e.
[14] BABKO-MALAYA O,MEYERS A,PUSTEJOVSKY J,et al.Modeling debate within a scientific community[C]//International Conference on Social Intelligence and Technology.IEEE Computer Society,2013:57-63.
[15] WOLCOTT H N,FOUCH M J,HSU E R,et al.Modeling time-dependent and -independent indicators to facilitate identification of breakthrough research papers[J].Scientometrics,2016,107(2):807-817.
[16] BREITZMAN A,THOMAS P.The emerging clusters model:a tool for identifying emerging technologies across multiple patent systems[J].Research Policy,2015,44(1):195-205.
[17] BABKO-MALAYA O,HUNTER D,SEIDEL A,et al.Flexible creation of indicators of scientific and technological emergence:emerging phenomena and big data[C].IEEE International Conference on Intelligence & Security Informatics IEEE,2013:7-9.
[18] MEYERSY A,LEE G,et al.Annotating relations in scientific articles[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Annotating-Relations-in-Scientific-Articles-Meyers-Lee/e815513cf1f5cfccb938ba25ed04189b48252ccf.
[19] SMALL H,BOYACK K W,KLAVANS R.Identifying emerging topics in science and technology[J].Research Policy,2014,43(8):1450-1467.
[20] BABKO-MALAYA O,HUNTER D B,SEIDEL A C,et al.A method for detection and characterization of technical emergence and associated methods[EB/OL].http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y201610292573.html.
[21] MICHAELIS J R,MCGUINNESS D L,CHANG C,et al.Explaining scientific and technical emergence forecasting[M]//Applications of social media and social network analysis.Springer International Publishing,2015.
[22] MICHAELIS J R,MCGUINNESS D L,CHANG C,et al.Towards explanation of scientific and technological emergence[C]//IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis & Mining,2013.
[23] SemEval-2018 task 7 semantic relation extraction and classification in scientific papers[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/17422.
[24] SemEval-2017 Task 10:scienceIE-extracting keyphrases and relations from scientific publications[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].http://alt.qcri.org/semeval2017/task10/.
[25] Measuring tech emergence[EB/OL].[2018-12-20].https://vpinstitute.org/academic-portal/tech-emergence-contest/.