风机齿轮箱轴承状态评估与剩余寿命预测
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摘要
为了提高风机运行的可靠性和经济性,提出一种基于马尔科夫链的风机齿轮箱轴承状态评估和剩余寿命预测方法。首先,建立风机齿轮箱轴承磨损状态的Gamma分布模型,并利用最大似然法对模型参数进行估计;其次,划分风机齿轮箱轴承磨损状态等级,并确定各状态等级区间限值;再次,计算齿轮箱轴承磨损状态转移概率,并构造马尔科夫过程的状态转移矩阵;最后,应用该方法对风机齿轮箱轴承进行算例仿真。算例仿真结果验证了该方法在确定风机齿轮箱轴承磨损状态和剩余寿命方面的有效性。
In order to improve reliability and economy of wind turbine, a method based on Markov chain is proposed. It is used for assessing operating condition and predicting residual life of gearbox bearing of wind turbine. Firstly, the degradation process of bearing wear status is described by Gamma distribution whose parameters can be estimated by using maximum likelihood estimation method. Secondly, the wear status of gearbox bearing are divided into four levels, and the corresponding upper and lower bounds of each level are also determined.Then, state transition probabilities are calculated to construct the state transition matrix. Finally, the proposed method is applied in simulation of wind turbine gearbox bearing. The simulation result verifies the effectiveness of presented method in determining the wear state and residual life of gearbox bearing of wind turbine.
In order to improve reliability and economy of wind turbine, a method based on Markov chain is proposed. It is used for assessing operating condition and predicting residual life of gearbox bearing of wind turbine. Firstly, the degradation process of bearing wear status is described by Gamma distribution whose parameters can be estimated by using maximum likelihood estimation method. Secondly, the wear status of gearbox bearing are divided into four levels, and the corresponding upper and lower bounds of each level are also determined.Then, state transition probabilities are calculated to construct the state transition matrix. Finally, the proposed method is applied in simulation of wind turbine gearbox bearing. The simulation result verifies the effectiveness of presented method in determining the wear state and residual life of gearbox bearing of wind turbine.
引文
[1]王斌.面向风电机组齿轮箱的故障诊断系统研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2012.
[2]陈雪峰,李继猛,程航,等.风力发电机状态监测和故障诊断技术的研究与进展[J].机械工程学报,2011,47(9):45-52.CHEN Xuefeng,LI Jimeng,CHENG Hang,et al.Research and application of condition monitoring and fault diagnosis technology in wind turbines[J].Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2011,47(9):45-52.
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[4]姚森敬,文正其,张林,等.一种变压器状态评估中的状态量优选方法[J].中国电力,2014,47(8):8-12.YAO Senjing,WEN Zhengqi,ZHANG Lin,et al.A selection method of optimal criteria for transformer condition assessment[J].Electric Power,2014,47(8):8-12.
[5]张路朋,赵洪山.基于时间延迟的风机齿轮箱状态优化维修[J].中国电力,2014,47(11):108-111.ZHANG Lupeng,ZHAO Hongshan.Optimized condition based maintenance for gearbox of wind turbine based on time-delay[J].Electric Power,2014,47(11):108-111.
[6]孙磊,贾云献,蔡丽影,等.粒子滤波参数估计方法在齿轮箱剩余寿命预测中的应用研究[J].振动与冲击,2013,32(6):6-12.SUN Lei,JIA Yunxian,CAI Liying,et al.Residual useful life prediction of gearbox based on particle filtering parameter estimation method[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2013,32(6):6-12.
[7]沈长青,朱忠奎,黄伟国,等.基于支持向量回归方法的齿轮箱故障诊断研究[J].振动、测试与诊断,2013,33(5):775-781.SHEN Changqing,ZHU Zhongkui,HUANG Weiguo,et al.Gearbox fault diagnosis method based on support vector regression[J].Journal of Vibration,Measurement&Diagnosis,2013,33(5):775-781.
[8]申中杰,陈雪峰,何正嘉,等.基于相对特征和多变量支持向量机的滚动轴承剩余寿命预测[J].机械工程学报,2013,49(2):183-189.SHEN Zhongjie,CHEN Xuefeng,HE Zhengjia,et al.Remaining life predictions of rolling bearing based on relative features and multivariable support vector machine[J].Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2013,49(2):183-189.
[9]张小田,鄢盛腾,周雪青,等.基于状态监测的风电机组主轴承早期故障预测方法[J].广东电力,2012,25(11):6-10.ZHANG Xiaotian,YAN Shengteng,ZHOU Xueqing,et al.Early stage failure forecast method for main bearing of wind turbine based on state monitoring[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2012,25(11):6-10.
[10]原媛,卓东风.隐半马尔可夫模型在剩余寿命预测中的应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2014,24(1):184-187,191.YUAN Yuan,ZHUO Dongfeng.Application of hidden semimarkov model in prediction of residual life[J].Computer Technology and Development,2014,24(1):184-187,191.
[11]何厚伯,赵建民,许长安,等.基于马尔科夫过程的健康状态评估模型[J].计算机数字与工程,2011,39(7):63-67.HE Houbo,ZHAO Jianmin,XU Chang’an,et al.An estimate model for health state based on Markov process[J].Computer&Digital Engineering,2011,39(7):63-67.
[12]FRANK T D.Numeric and exact solutions of the nonlinear chapman-kolmogorov equation:a case study for a nonlinear semigroup Markov model[J].International Journal of Modern Physics,2009,23(19):3829-3843.
[13]GAETAN N,FABRICE L,MARTHE K.A Markov-Middleton model for bursty impulsive noise:modeling and receiver design[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2013,28(4):2317-2325.
[14]何兆民,王少萍.基于时变状态转移隐半马尔科夫模型的寿命预测[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,41(8):47-53.HE Zhaomin,WANG Shaoping.Remaining lifetime prediction based on time-varying state transition probabilities of hidden semi-markov model[J].Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences),2014,41(8):47-53.
[15]盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008:319-326.
[16]胡剑波,葛小凯,张亮,等.多失效系统退化变迁建模与状态维修决策优化[J].计算机集成制造系统,2014,20(1):165-172.HU Jianbo,GE Xiaokai,ZHANG Liang,et al.Degradation shift modeling and condition maintenance decision optimization of multi-failure system[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2014,20(1):165-172.
[2]陈雪峰,李继猛,程航,等.风力发电机状态监测和故障诊断技术的研究与进展[J].机械工程学报,2011,47(9):45-52.CHEN Xuefeng,LI Jimeng,CHENG Hang,et al.Research and application of condition monitoring and fault diagnosis technology in wind turbines[J].Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2011,47(9):45-52.
[3]赵洪山,张兴科,郭伟.考虑不完全维修的风机齿轮箱优化检修策略[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(10):15-22.ZHAO Hongshan,ZHANG Xingke,GUO Wei.Optimized maintenance strategy with imperfect repair for the gearbox of wind turbine[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(10):15-22.
[4]姚森敬,文正其,张林,等.一种变压器状态评估中的状态量优选方法[J].中国电力,2014,47(8):8-12.YAO Senjing,WEN Zhengqi,ZHANG Lin,et al.A selection method of optimal criteria for transformer condition assessment[J].Electric Power,2014,47(8):8-12.
[5]张路朋,赵洪山.基于时间延迟的风机齿轮箱状态优化维修[J].中国电力,2014,47(11):108-111.ZHANG Lupeng,ZHAO Hongshan.Optimized condition based maintenance for gearbox of wind turbine based on time-delay[J].Electric Power,2014,47(11):108-111.
[6]孙磊,贾云献,蔡丽影,等.粒子滤波参数估计方法在齿轮箱剩余寿命预测中的应用研究[J].振动与冲击,2013,32(6):6-12.SUN Lei,JIA Yunxian,CAI Liying,et al.Residual useful life prediction of gearbox based on particle filtering parameter estimation method[J].Journal of Vibration and Shock,2013,32(6):6-12.
[7]沈长青,朱忠奎,黄伟国,等.基于支持向量回归方法的齿轮箱故障诊断研究[J].振动、测试与诊断,2013,33(5):775-781.SHEN Changqing,ZHU Zhongkui,HUANG Weiguo,et al.Gearbox fault diagnosis method based on support vector regression[J].Journal of Vibration,Measurement&Diagnosis,2013,33(5):775-781.
[8]申中杰,陈雪峰,何正嘉,等.基于相对特征和多变量支持向量机的滚动轴承剩余寿命预测[J].机械工程学报,2013,49(2):183-189.SHEN Zhongjie,CHEN Xuefeng,HE Zhengjia,et al.Remaining life predictions of rolling bearing based on relative features and multivariable support vector machine[J].Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2013,49(2):183-189.
[9]张小田,鄢盛腾,周雪青,等.基于状态监测的风电机组主轴承早期故障预测方法[J].广东电力,2012,25(11):6-10.ZHANG Xiaotian,YAN Shengteng,ZHOU Xueqing,et al.Early stage failure forecast method for main bearing of wind turbine based on state monitoring[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2012,25(11):6-10.
[10]原媛,卓东风.隐半马尔可夫模型在剩余寿命预测中的应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2014,24(1):184-187,191.YUAN Yuan,ZHUO Dongfeng.Application of hidden semimarkov model in prediction of residual life[J].Computer Technology and Development,2014,24(1):184-187,191.
[11]何厚伯,赵建民,许长安,等.基于马尔科夫过程的健康状态评估模型[J].计算机数字与工程,2011,39(7):63-67.HE Houbo,ZHAO Jianmin,XU Chang’an,et al.An estimate model for health state based on Markov process[J].Computer&Digital Engineering,2011,39(7):63-67.
[12]FRANK T D.Numeric and exact solutions of the nonlinear chapman-kolmogorov equation:a case study for a nonlinear semigroup Markov model[J].International Journal of Modern Physics,2009,23(19):3829-3843.
[13]GAETAN N,FABRICE L,MARTHE K.A Markov-Middleton model for bursty impulsive noise:modeling and receiver design[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2013,28(4):2317-2325.
[14]何兆民,王少萍.基于时变状态转移隐半马尔科夫模型的寿命预测[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2014,41(8):47-53.HE Zhaomin,WANG Shaoping.Remaining lifetime prediction based on time-varying state transition probabilities of hidden semi-markov model[J].Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences),2014,41(8):47-53.
[15]盛骤,谢式千,潘承毅.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2008:319-326.
[16]胡剑波,葛小凯,张亮,等.多失效系统退化变迁建模与状态维修决策优化[J].计算机集成制造系统,2014,20(1):165-172.HU Jianbo,GE Xiaokai,ZHANG Liang,et al.Degradation shift modeling and condition maintenance decision optimization of multi-failure system[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2014,20(1):165-172.