汇率与中美贸易收支相关性研究——基于统计数据差异视角
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摘要
选取了中美双方公布的近十年中美贸易差额数据,运用单位根检验、VAR模型等方法研究汇率变化与中美贸易收支的相关性,从香港转口贸易角度修正了美方数据后再做检验。实证显示,中方数据表明汇率与贸易差额间没有明显关系,美方数据表明汇率与贸易差额有关。但对美方数据进行修正后,其结果与中方数据所得结论一致,从而认定,汇率变动与中美贸易差额无关,并非造成长期贸易顺差的主要原因,敦促人民币升值并不会达到美方扭转对华贸易逆差的期望。
This paper selects the trade balance data between China and the United States published in the past decade and uses the unit root test,VAR model and other methods to study the correlation between exchange rate fluctuation and trade balance between China and the United States after revising the US data from the perspective of reexport trade in HK. Empirical results show that according to the data of China,there is no obvious relationship between exchange rate and trade balance,while US data shows the opposite. However,after revising the US data,the results are consistent with the conclusions drawn from the Chinese data. It is concluded that exchange rate fluctuations have nothing to do with Sino-US trade balance and they are not the key reason for the long-term trade surplus.Urging the appreciation of the RMB will not meet America's expectations of reversing its trade deficit with China.
This paper selects the trade balance data between China and the United States published in the past decade and uses the unit root test,VAR model and other methods to study the correlation between exchange rate fluctuation and trade balance between China and the United States after revising the US data from the perspective of reexport trade in HK. Empirical results show that according to the data of China,there is no obvious relationship between exchange rate and trade balance,while US data shows the opposite. However,after revising the US data,the results are consistent with the conclusions drawn from the Chinese data. It is concluded that exchange rate fluctuations have nothing to do with Sino-US trade balance and they are not the key reason for the long-term trade surplus.Urging the appreciation of the RMB will not meet America's expectations of reversing its trade deficit with China.
引文
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[8]范朝华.人民币汇率变化对中美双边贸易的影响:基于商品贸易结构的视角[D].上海:上海外国语大学,2018:48-50.
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[10]杨玉银,刘会红.从贸易新算法简析2018中美贸易现状、本质与影响[J].经贸实践,2018(14):85-86.
[11]张雨,任龙.浅析中美贸易摩擦的原因即应对策略[J].时代经贸,2018(14):48-50.
[2]HUGHES L,MECKLING J. The politics of renewable energy trade:The US—China solar dispute[J]. Energy Policy,2017(2):256-264.
[3]卫桂玲.人民币汇率造成美中贸易逆差的两个悖论简析[J].理论月刊,2017(11):178-181.
[4]郭晓允.人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡关系研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2017:48-49.
[5]王瞳瞳.汇率变动对中美贸易长短期影响研究[D].西安:西安交通大学,2018:66-67.
[6]王彧婧,程京京,郭雯.汇率是影响中美贸易的决定因素吗:基于VAR模型的经验研究[J].金融理论探索,2018(4):29-40.
[7]杨倩.人民币汇率波动与中美货物贸易的关系研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2017:56-67.
[8]范朝华.人民币汇率变化对中美双边贸易的影响:基于商品贸易结构的视角[D].上海:上海外国语大学,2018:48-50.
[9]许宪春,余航.理解中美贸易不平衡:统计视角[J].经济学动态,2018(7):27-36.
[10]杨玉银,刘会红.从贸易新算法简析2018中美贸易现状、本质与影响[J].经贸实践,2018(14):85-86.
[11]张雨,任龙.浅析中美贸易摩擦的原因即应对策略[J].时代经贸,2018(14):48-50.