玉溪市水资源短缺风险时空分异及预测研究
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摘要
开展玉溪市水资源短缺风险时空分异及预测研究对于水资源的合理利用和区域的可持续发展具有重要意义。基于模糊聚类法揭示玉溪市2005-2015年水资源短缺风险时空分布,预估2020、2030年的短缺风险,并利用灰色关联法分析各指标对短缺风险的影响大小。结果表明:(1)玉溪市2005-2015年水资源短缺风险时间差异显著,呈现先增加后减小的趋势。(2)各区县水资源短缺风险东高西低。(3)2020年在平水和枯水条件下,各区县处于2～3级短缺风险。在特枯水年,各区县介于3～4级风险; 2030年在平水和枯水条件下,各区县介于2～4级风险。在特枯水年,处于4～5级风险。(4)农业用水量对短缺风险影响最大,生态用水量和有效灌溉面积影响最小。
It is important to study the temporal and spatial distribution variation and prediction of water shortage risk for the rational exploitation and utilization of water resources and sustainable development of society in Yuxi.The fuzzy cluster analysis method is used to analyze the risk of water shortage in the districts and counties of Yuxi from 2005 to 2015 and the water shortage risk in 2020 and 2030 is predicted.The results show that the temporal heterogeneity of the water shortage risk in Yuxi prefecture-level city is remarkable;it increases originally and then decreases between 2005 and 2015;the risk of water shortages in the east is higher than that in the west;in 2020,the 2nd and 3rd grade risk is faced by the districts and counties in Yuxi of normal and low precipitation years;and the 4th and 3rd grade risk are for extremely low precipitation year;in 2030,the water shortage risk is the 2nd and 4th grade of normal and low precipitation years,and the 4th and 5th grade of extremely low precipitation year.Agricultural water consumption has the greatest impact on water shortage risk.However,ecological water consumption and effective irrigation area have not significant effect on the risk.
It is important to study the temporal and spatial distribution variation and prediction of water shortage risk for the rational exploitation and utilization of water resources and sustainable development of society in Yuxi.The fuzzy cluster analysis method is used to analyze the risk of water shortage in the districts and counties of Yuxi from 2005 to 2015 and the water shortage risk in 2020 and 2030 is predicted.The results show that the temporal heterogeneity of the water shortage risk in Yuxi prefecture-level city is remarkable;it increases originally and then decreases between 2005 and 2015;the risk of water shortages in the east is higher than that in the west;in 2020,the 2nd and 3rd grade risk is faced by the districts and counties in Yuxi of normal and low precipitation years;and the 4th and 3rd grade risk are for extremely low precipitation year;in 2030,the water shortage risk is the 2nd and 4th grade of normal and low precipitation years,and the 4th and 5th grade of extremely low precipitation year.Agricultural water consumption has the greatest impact on water shortage risk.However,ecological water consumption and effective irrigation area have not significant effect on the risk.
引文
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[2]左其亭,马军霞,陶洁.现代水资源管理新思想及和谐论理念[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2 214-2 220.
[3]金菊良,张礼兵,魏一鸣.水资源可持续利用评价的改进层次分析法[J].水科学进展,2004,15(2):227-232.
[4]廖强,张士锋,陈俊旭.北京市水资源短缺风险等级评价与预测[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):140-147.
[5]赵自阳,李王成,王霞,等.基于蚁群算法的我国水资源短缺风险聚类分析[J].节水灌溉,2017,(7):70-76.
[6]阮本清,韩宇平,王浩,等.水资源短缺风险的模糊综合评价[J].水利学报,2005,36(8):906-912.
[7]许应石,李长安,张中旺,等.湖北省水资源短缺风险评价及对策[J].长江科学院院报,2012,29(11):5-10.
[8]梁媛,许新宜,王红瑞,等.基于循环修正模式的云南省水资源短缺程度分析[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(7):1 146-1 158.
[9]王新华,龚爱民,郭美华,等.玉溪市生产耗水量与水足迹评价[J].江苏农业科学,2010,(3):409-412.
[10]赵红玲,易琦,陈俊旭,等.基于熵权的玉溪市水资源脆弱性及其时空异质性研究[J].水电能源科学,2017,(9):37-41.
[11]王红瑞,钱龙霞,许新宜,等.基于模糊概率的水资源短缺风险评价模型及其应用[J].水利学报,2009,40(7):813-821.
[12]佟长福,史海滨,李和平,等.基于灰色关联分析的鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力评价[J].节水灌溉,2009,(11):43-49.
[13]陈守煜.工程水文水资源系统模糊集分析理论与实践[M].辽宁大连:大连理工大学出版社,1998.
[14]高新波.模糊聚类算法的优化及应用研究[D].西安:西安电子科技大学,1999.