基于积温的文冠果开花物候期预测模型的构建
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摘要
【目的】建立不同地区及不同类型的文冠果物候模型,为文冠果的经营活动和旅游管理提供理论依据。【方法】以北京市大东流苗圃文冠果3个遗传类型:白花类型及"金冠霞帔""匀冠锦霞"两个文冠果新品种为研究对象,于2017年进行了花期表型调查与物候的观测,结合全国文冠果主要分布区的8个省份15个地点白花文冠果初花期、盛花期、末花期的观测数据,应用中国气象数据网上共享气象数据,对花性状与3个开花物候期进行了时间和空间尺度上的分析。【结果】(1)3个不同花色遗传类型开花先后顺序为白花类型、"金冠霞帔""匀冠锦霞",物候期差异显著或极显著,花序生长随0、3、5、7、10℃积温的变化与Logistic生长模型拟合结果较好;花朵数随时间和积温的变化与二次多项式模型拟合较好;(2)各个地区之间同一积温指数各物候期所需积温相差不大,不同积温指数所需积温有显著性差异;不同积温指数和不同物候时期都对物候所需积温影响差异极显著,两个因素交互作用影响差异极显著;(3)5℃积温指数(即温暖指数)与物候期日序具有高度相关性,可用于花期预测;(4)白花类型文冠果3个物候期5℃积温的日序与经纬度、海拔呈极显著的多元线性回归关系,各观测地点日序的回归模拟值与观测值单因素方差分析证实该回归模型可用于花期预测;(5)用克里金插值法,采用上述预测模型,绘制白花文冠果3个开花物候期的时空分布图。【结论】基于5℃积温指数(即温暖指数)建立的积温模型可用于文冠果花期预测。
[Objective] Establishing different regions and different types of phenology model aims to provide theoretical basis for tourism and business activity management. [Method] We choose the three genetic types of the Dadongliu Nursery Garden in Beijing, i.e., the white flower; the new varieties as‘Jinguanxiapei' and ‘Junguanjinxia' as the research objects and performed the observation of flowering phenotypes in 2017. Referring to the observed data of the early flowering stage, the full flowering stage and late flowering stage of the white yellowhorn in 15 different locations of 8 provinces in main distribution area of Xanthoceras sorbifolium, we used the sharing meteorological data from the Chinese meteorological data website to analyze floral traits and three flowering phenology periods in different space-time scales.[Result](1) The flowering sequences of three different genetic types of yellowhorn, i.e., the white flower,"Jinguanxiapei " and "Junguanjinxia " as well as the differences in phenological period were significant or extremely significant. In addition, the changes of inflorescence growth with 0, 3, 5, 7, and 10 ℃accumulative temperature fit the Logistic growth model better and the number of flowers changed with time and accumulative temperature fit the quadratic polynomials better.(2) The required accumulated temperature for each phenology in different locations with same accumulated temperature index showed no difference,the required accumulated temperature in different accumulated temperature index showed significant difference. However, both accumulated temperature index and phenology showed significant influence on required accumulated temperature and there was a significant difference on interaction between them.(3) The 5 ℃ cumulative temperature index(the warmth index) was highly correlated with the phenological date and could be used for flowering prediction.(4) The 5 ℃ accumulated temperature date of three flowering phenologies of white flowers showed an extremely significant multivariable regression relationship with longitude, latitude and altitude. The one-way ANOVO and simulated values at different observation sites confirmed that this regression model could be used for flowering prediction.(5) The Krisking model can be used to draw the space-time distribution maps of the three flowering phenologies of the white flower yellowhorn. [Conclusion] The flowering phenological model of Xanthoceras sorbifolium based on 5 ℃ cumulative temperature index(the warmth index) can be used to predict flowering period.
[Objective] Establishing different regions and different types of phenology model aims to provide theoretical basis for tourism and business activity management. [Method] We choose the three genetic types of the Dadongliu Nursery Garden in Beijing, i.e., the white flower; the new varieties as‘Jinguanxiapei' and ‘Junguanjinxia' as the research objects and performed the observation of flowering phenotypes in 2017. Referring to the observed data of the early flowering stage, the full flowering stage and late flowering stage of the white yellowhorn in 15 different locations of 8 provinces in main distribution area of Xanthoceras sorbifolium, we used the sharing meteorological data from the Chinese meteorological data website to analyze floral traits and three flowering phenology periods in different space-time scales.[Result](1) The flowering sequences of three different genetic types of yellowhorn, i.e., the white flower,"Jinguanxiapei " and "Junguanjinxia " as well as the differences in phenological period were significant or extremely significant. In addition, the changes of inflorescence growth with 0, 3, 5, 7, and 10 ℃accumulative temperature fit the Logistic growth model better and the number of flowers changed with time and accumulative temperature fit the quadratic polynomials better.(2) The required accumulated temperature for each phenology in different locations with same accumulated temperature index showed no difference,the required accumulated temperature in different accumulated temperature index showed significant difference. However, both accumulated temperature index and phenology showed significant influence on required accumulated temperature and there was a significant difference on interaction between them.(3) The 5 ℃ cumulative temperature index(the warmth index) was highly correlated with the phenological date and could be used for flowering prediction.(4) The 5 ℃ accumulated temperature date of three flowering phenologies of white flowers showed an extremely significant multivariable regression relationship with longitude, latitude and altitude. The one-way ANOVO and simulated values at different observation sites confirmed that this regression model could be used for flowering prediction.(5) The Krisking model can be used to draw the space-time distribution maps of the three flowering phenologies of the white flower yellowhorn. [Conclusion] The flowering phenological model of Xanthoceras sorbifolium based on 5 ℃ cumulative temperature index(the warmth index) can be used to predict flowering period.
引文
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[21]张厚瑄,张翼.中国活动积温对气候变暖的相应[J].地理学报,1994,49(1):27-36.Zhang H X,Zhang Y.Preliminary discussion on the response of active accumulated temperature of China to climate warming[J].Acta Geographica Sinca,1994,49(1):27-36.
[22]Yim Y J,Kira T.Distribution of forest vegetation and climate in the Korean Peninsula:(I)distribution of some indices of thermal climate[J].Japanese Journal of Ecology,1975,26(5):77-88.
[23]Abbaspour M,Jafari M J,Mansouri N,et al.Thermal comfort evaluation in Tehran metro using relative warmth index[J].International Journal of Environmental Science&Technology,2008,5(3):297-304.
[24]徐文铎.吉良的热量指数及其在中国植被中的应用[J].生态学杂志,1985(3):35-39.Xu W D.Kira’s temperature indices and their application in the study of vegetation[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,1985(3):35-39.
[25]Wang H,Zhang B,Zhao C,et al.The spatio-temporal characteristics of temperature change in recent 57 years in Northern China[J].Progress in Geography,2009,28(4):643-650.
[26]Xia N H,Gadek P A.Sapindaceae[M]//Wu Z Y,Raven P H.Flora of China:Tomus 12.Beijing:Science Press;St.Louis:Missouri Botanical Garden Press,2007:5-24.
[27]Ranjitkar S,Xu J,Shrestha K K,et al.Ensemble forecast of climate suitability for the Trans-Himalayan Nyctaginaceae species[J].Ecological Modelling,2014,282:18-24.
[28]Wang Q,Huang Y,Wang Z,et al.Fruit shape and reproductive self and cross compatibility for the performance of fruit set in an and romonoecious species:Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge[J].Tree Genetics&Genomes,2017,13(6):116.
[29]李典谟,马祖飞,等.展望数学生态学与生态模型的未来[J].生态学报,2000,20(6):1083-1089.Li D M,Ma Z F,et al.Prospect of mathematical ecology and ecological modeling[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2000,20(6):1083-1089.
[30]王烁,董利虎,李凤日.人工长白落叶松枝条存活模型[J].北京林业大学学报,2018,40(1):57-66.Wang L,Dong L H,Li F R.Branch survival models of planted Larix olgensis tree[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2018,40(1):57-66.
[31]Gerstmann H,Doktor D,Gl??er C,et al.PHASE:a geostatistical model for the Kriging-based spatial prediction of crop phenology using public phenological and climatological observations[J].Computers&Electronics in Agriculture,2016,127:726-738.
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[2]王荷生.华北植物区系的演变和来源[J].地理学报,1999,54(3):213-223.Wang H S.The evolution and sources of in north China’s flora[J].Acta Geographica Sinca,1999,54(3):213-223.
[3]毕泉鑫,蔡龙,马兴华,等.中国特有能源植物文冠果的遗传学及产业化[J].中国野生植物资源,2011,30(5):49-55.Bi Q X,Cai L,Ma X H,et al.Review on genetics and industrialization of Xanthoceras sorbifolia,an indigenous energy species in China[J].Chinese Wild Plant Resources,2011,30(5):49-55.
[4]戚建华,姚增玉.文冠果的生殖生物学与良种繁育研究进展[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(3):91-96.Qi J H,Yao Z Y.Review on reproductive biology,propagation and breeding of Xanthoceras sorbifolia[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2012,27(3):91-96.
[5]马芳,王俊,王姮,等.文冠果树花部形态与开花物候的研究[J].北方园艺,2014(22):80-84.Ma F,Wang J,Wang H,et al.Study on floral characters and flowering phenology in Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge[J].Northern Horticulture,2014(22):80-84.
[6]马利苹,王力华,阴黎明,等.乌丹地区文冠果生物学特性及物候观测[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(12):2583-2587.Ma L P,Wang L H,Yin L M,et al.Biology and phenology of Xanthoceras sorbifolia in Wudan area[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2008,19(12):2583-2587.
[7]高媛,贾黎明,苏淑钗,等.无患子物候及开花结果特性[J].东北林业大学学报,2015,43(6):34-40.Gao Y,Jia L M,Su S C,et al.Phenology and blossom-fruiting characteristics of Sapindus mukorossi[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2015,43(6):34-40.
[8]汪智军,张东亚,卓立.准噶尔盆地南缘文冠果物候与气温变化的关系[J].经济林研究,2013,31(1):102-105.Wang Z J,Zhang D Y,Zhuo L.Relationship of phenology in Xanthoceras sorbifolia Bunge and temperature variation in southern Junggar Basin[J].Nonwood Forest Research,2013,31(1):102-105.
[9]Hopkins A D.Bioclimaties:a science of life and climate relations[M].Washington:United States Government Printing Office,1938:188.
[10]徐相明,顾品强,陈丛敏,等.莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(2):421-428.Xu X M,Gu P Q,Chen C M,et al.Response of phenophase to meteorological conditions and flowering forecast model on Amygdalus communis in Shache County,Xinjiang,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(2):421-428.
[11]Chuine I,Yiou P,Viovy N,et al.Historical phenology:grape ripening as a past climate indicator[J].Nature,2004,432:289-290.
[12]王焕炯,戴君虎,葛全胜.1952-2007年中国白蜡树春季物候时空变化分析[J].中国科学(地球科学),2012,42(5):701-710.Wang H J,Dai J H,Ge Q S.The spatiotemporal characteristics of spring phenophase changes of Fraxinus chinensis in China from1952 to 2007[J].Scientia Sinica(Terrae),2012,42(5):701-710.
[13]孔冬冬,张强,黄文琳,等.1982-2013年青藏高原植被物候变化及气象因素影响[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):39-52.Kong D D,Zhang Q,Huang W L,et al.Vegetation phenology change in Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013 and its related meteorological factors[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):39-52.
[14]Morin X,Viner D,Chuine I.Tree species range shifts at a continental scale:new predictive insights from a process-based model[J].Journal of Ecology,2008,96(4):784.
[15]Morin X,Lechowicz M J,Augspurger C,et al.Leaf phenology in22 North American tree species during the 21st century[J].Global Change Biology,2010,15(4):961-975.
[16]Ge Q,Wang H,Dai J.Simulating changes in the leaf unfolding time of 20 plant species in China over the twenty-first century[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,2014,58(4):473-484.
[17]徐琳,陈效逑,杜星.中国东部暖温带刺槐花期空间格局的模拟与预测[J].生态学报,2013,33(12):3584-3593.Xu L,Chen X Q,Du X.Simulation and prediction of spatial patterns of Robinia pseudoacacia flowering dates in eastern China’s warm temperate zone[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(12):3584-3593.
[18]李荣平,周广胜,王笑影,等.不同物候模型对东北地区作物发育期模拟对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(3):25-30.Li R P,Zhou G S,Wang X Y,et al.Comparative analysis of simulation on crop development stage using different phenological models in Northeast China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2012,28(3):25-30.
[19]戴君虎,王焕炯,葛全胜.近50年中国温带季风区植物花期春季霜冻风险变化[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):593-601.Dai J H,Wang H J,Ge Q S.Changes of spring frost risks during the flowering period of woody plants in temperate monsoon area of China over the past 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):593-601.
[20]Pe?uelas J,Filella I.Responses to a Warming World[J].Science,2001,294:793-795.
[21]张厚瑄,张翼.中国活动积温对气候变暖的相应[J].地理学报,1994,49(1):27-36.Zhang H X,Zhang Y.Preliminary discussion on the response of active accumulated temperature of China to climate warming[J].Acta Geographica Sinca,1994,49(1):27-36.
[22]Yim Y J,Kira T.Distribution of forest vegetation and climate in the Korean Peninsula:(I)distribution of some indices of thermal climate[J].Japanese Journal of Ecology,1975,26(5):77-88.
[23]Abbaspour M,Jafari M J,Mansouri N,et al.Thermal comfort evaluation in Tehran metro using relative warmth index[J].International Journal of Environmental Science&Technology,2008,5(3):297-304.
[24]徐文铎.吉良的热量指数及其在中国植被中的应用[J].生态学杂志,1985(3):35-39.Xu W D.Kira’s temperature indices and their application in the study of vegetation[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,1985(3):35-39.
[25]Wang H,Zhang B,Zhao C,et al.The spatio-temporal characteristics of temperature change in recent 57 years in Northern China[J].Progress in Geography,2009,28(4):643-650.
[26]Xia N H,Gadek P A.Sapindaceae[M]//Wu Z Y,Raven P H.Flora of China:Tomus 12.Beijing:Science Press;St.Louis:Missouri Botanical Garden Press,2007:5-24.
[27]Ranjitkar S,Xu J,Shrestha K K,et al.Ensemble forecast of climate suitability for the Trans-Himalayan Nyctaginaceae species[J].Ecological Modelling,2014,282:18-24.
[28]Wang Q,Huang Y,Wang Z,et al.Fruit shape and reproductive self and cross compatibility for the performance of fruit set in an and romonoecious species:Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge[J].Tree Genetics&Genomes,2017,13(6):116.
[29]李典谟,马祖飞,等.展望数学生态学与生态模型的未来[J].生态学报,2000,20(6):1083-1089.Li D M,Ma Z F,et al.Prospect of mathematical ecology and ecological modeling[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2000,20(6):1083-1089.
[30]王烁,董利虎,李凤日.人工长白落叶松枝条存活模型[J].北京林业大学学报,2018,40(1):57-66.Wang L,Dong L H,Li F R.Branch survival models of planted Larix olgensis tree[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2018,40(1):57-66.
[31]Gerstmann H,Doktor D,Gl??er C,et al.PHASE:a geostatistical model for the Kriging-based spatial prediction of crop phenology using public phenological and climatological observations[J].Computers&Electronics in Agriculture,2016,127:726-738.
[32]Robertson G P.Geostatistics in ecology:interpolating with known variance[J].Ecology,1987,68(3):744-748.
[33]Legendre P,Fortin M J.Spatial pattern and ecological analysis[J].Vegetatio,1989,80(2):107-138.
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