深水井控STAMP/STPA安全性分析
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摘要
传统安全分析方法无法解决复杂系统部件之间异常交互作用的评价问题。针对深水井控的复杂性和动态性特点,将井控系统在钻井过程中的安全性问题作为系统控制和反馈问题,基于系统理论的事故模型和过程(STAMP)模型,采用STPA系统性安全评估方法,构建井控系统在深水钻井过程中的控制关联模型和反馈回路,通过识别系统安全风险与约束、定义安全控制结构、分析不安全控制行为及关键因素等进行深水井控安全性分析。以STAMP/STPA作为分析准则,结合全动态多相流模拟软件OLGA,建立深水井控工艺流程,以井涌后没有提供控制行为以及关井和压井等控制行为发生延迟为例,对井控作业的安全性进行动力学分析。结果表明:运用STAMP/STPA方法可从控制和约束角度为深水井控的安全系统性分析提供指导,通过对溢流、关井和压井过程模拟,可量化施加安全控制与约束行为以免事故发生与升级的时间裕量;该方法作为指导准则用于深水井控复杂系统安全性分析可行且有效。
Traditional methods of safety analysis cannot solve the evaluation problem of the abnormal interactions among elements of complex systems. In view of the complex and dynamic characteristics of deeper well control, the safety analysis of deepwater well control during the drilling process is regarded as a system control and feedback problem in this study. Based on the accident model on the system theory, and the STAMP model, we use the STPA safety evaluation method to establish the control interaction model and feedback control loop of the well control system. In the model, the system safety risks and restrictions are identified. Then the control structure of the safety-related is defined, and the key factors which contribute to unsafe control behaviors are analyzed. Using the dynamic multiphase simulation software OLGA, and adopting the STAMP/STPA as the criterion, we analyze the process of well control and simulate the unsafe control behaviors during the deepwater drilling. The dynamics analysis of the well control safety is performed, where the case without control after well kill and the delay of control from shut in to well kill are taken as examples. The results show that the STAMP/STPA method is an effective solution to evaluate the safety of deep water well control from the perspective of control and feedback. The rational control can prevent accidents occurrence and escalating, which ensured the system safety in the certain time horizon, by modeling the process of well kick, shut in and well kill. The results also demonstrate that the method is available and useful for the safety analysis of deepwater well control.
Traditional methods of safety analysis cannot solve the evaluation problem of the abnormal interactions among elements of complex systems. In view of the complex and dynamic characteristics of deeper well control, the safety analysis of deepwater well control during the drilling process is regarded as a system control and feedback problem in this study. Based on the accident model on the system theory, and the STAMP model, we use the STPA safety evaluation method to establish the control interaction model and feedback control loop of the well control system. In the model, the system safety risks and restrictions are identified. Then the control structure of the safety-related is defined, and the key factors which contribute to unsafe control behaviors are analyzed. Using the dynamic multiphase simulation software OLGA, and adopting the STAMP/STPA as the criterion, we analyze the process of well control and simulate the unsafe control behaviors during the deepwater drilling. The dynamics analysis of the well control safety is performed, where the case without control after well kill and the delay of control from shut in to well kill are taken as examples. The results show that the STAMP/STPA method is an effective solution to evaluate the safety of deep water well control from the perspective of control and feedback. The rational control can prevent accidents occurrence and escalating, which ensured the system safety in the certain time horizon, by modeling the process of well kick, shut in and well kill. The results also demonstrate that the method is available and useful for the safety analysis of deepwater well control.
引文
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[12] OUYANG M,HONG L,YU M,et al.STAMP-based analysis on the railway accident and accident spreading:taking the China:Jiaoji railway accident for example[J].Safety Science,2010,48(5):544-555.
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[15] RAUSAND M.风险评估理论、方法与应用[M].刘一骝,译.北京:清华大学出版社,2013:134.
[16] 褚道余.深水井控工艺技术探讨[J].石油钻探技术,2012,40(1):52-57.CHU Daoyu.Well control technology in deepwater well[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2012,40(1):52-57.
[17] BHANDARI J,ABBASSI R,GARANIYA V,et al.Risk analysis of deepwater drilling operations using Bayesian network[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2015,38:11-23.
[18] 刘刚,李伯尧,徐加兴,等.应用贝叶斯网络识别深水井控主要风险诱因[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(5):157-163.LIU Gang,LI Boyao,XU Jiaxing,et al.Application of Bayesian network to identifying principal risk factors in deepwater well control[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(5):157-163.
[19] ABIMBOLA M,KHAN F,KHAKZAD N,et al.Safety and risk analysis of managed pressure drilling operation using Bayesian network[J].Safety Science,2015,76:133-144.
[20] 王志远,孙宝江,高永海,等.深水司钻法压井模拟计算[J].石油学报,2008,29(5):786-790.WANG Zhiyuan,SUN Baojiang,GAO Yonghai,et al.Simulation computation of well killing with deepwater driller's method[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2008,29(5):786-790.
[21] 田家林,杨应林,杨令瑞,等.井喷失控井天然气喷量测定计算与实验研究[J].天然气工业,2017,37(3):77-82.TIAN Jialin,YANG Yinglin,YANG Lingrui,et al.Estimation of gas blowout volume in wells with uncontrolled blowout and laboratory studies[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(3):77-82.
[22] 孙宝江,王志远,公培斌,等.深水井控的七组分多相流动模型[J].石油学报,2011,32(6):1042-1049.SUN Baojiang,WANG Zhiyuan,GONG Peibin,et al.Application of a seven-component multiphase flow model to deepwater well control[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2011,32(6):1042-1049.
[2] 戴永寿,岳炜杰,孙伟峰,等.“三高”油气井早期溢流在线监测与预警系统[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2015,39(3):188-194.DAI Yongshou,YUE Weijie,SUN Weifeng,et al.Online monitoring and warning system for early kick foreboding on "three high" wells[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Natural Science),2015,39(3):188-194.
[3] LI W,ZHANG L,LIANG W.An accident causation analysis and taxonomy (ACAT) model of complex industrial system from both system safety and control theory perspectives[J].Safety Science,2017,92:94-103.
[4] PRANESH V,PALANICHAMY K,SAIDAT O,et al.Lack of dynamic leadership skills and human failure contribution analysis to manage risk in deep water horizon oil platform[J].Safety Science,2017,92:85-93.
[5] 李娟,汪厚祥,林海涛.基于STAMP的舰载作战系统软件安全研究[J].舰船科学技术,2010,32(9):63-66.LI Juan,WANG Houxiang,LIN Haitao.Study on STAMP-based software safety for ship combat system[J].Ship Science and Technology,2010,32(9):63-66.
[6] LEVESON N.A new accident model for engineering safer systems[J].Safety Science,2004,42(4):237-270.
[7] LEVESON N.A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2015,136:17-34.
[8] 郑磊,胡剑波.基于STAMP/STPA的机轮刹车系统安全性分析[J].航空学报,2017,38(1):246-256.ZHENG Lei,HU Jianbo.Safety analysis of wheel brake system based on STAMP/STPA[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2017,38(1):246-256.
[9] 刘杰,阳小华,余童兰,等.基于STAMP模型的核动力蒸汽发生器水位控制系统安全性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):78-83.LIU Jie,YANG Xiaohua,YU Tonglan,et al.Safety analysis on control system for water level of steam generator in nuclear power plant based on STAMP model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(5):78-83.
[10] 刘朝晖,陈智,吴志强,等.STPA方法在数字化反应堆紧急停堆系统安全性分析中的研究与应用[J].核动力工程,2015,36(增2):157-161.LIU Chaohui,CHEN Zhi,WU Zhiqiang,et al.Research and application of STPA to digital reactor shutdown system in NPP for system safety analysis[J].Nuclear Power Engineering,2015,36(sup2):157-161.
[11] 刘金涛,唐涛,赵林,等.基于STPA的CTCS-3级列控系统功能安全分析方法[J].中国铁道科学,2014,35(5):86-95.LIU Jintao,TANG Tao,ZHAO Lin,et al.Functional safety analysis method of CTCS-3 level system based on STPA[J].China Railway Science,2014,35(5):86-95.
[12] OUYANG M,HONG L,YU M,et al.STAMP-based analysis on the railway accident and accident spreading:taking the China:Jiaoji railway accident for example[J].Safety Science,2010,48(5):544-555.
[13] 马刚,杜宇鸽,杨熙,等.复杂系统风险评估专家系统[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2016,56(1):66-76.MA Gang,DU Yuge,YANG Xi,et al.Risk assessment expert system for the complex system[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2016,56(1):66-76.
[14] 王起全,吴嘉鑫.基于STAMP模型的地铁拥挤踩踏应急联动系统设计[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):158-162.WANG Qiquan,WU Jiaxin.Designing a linkage system for response to subway stampede accidents based on STAMP model[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(12):158-162.
[15] RAUSAND M.风险评估理论、方法与应用[M].刘一骝,译.北京:清华大学出版社,2013:134.
[16] 褚道余.深水井控工艺技术探讨[J].石油钻探技术,2012,40(1):52-57.CHU Daoyu.Well control technology in deepwater well[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2012,40(1):52-57.
[17] BHANDARI J,ABBASSI R,GARANIYA V,et al.Risk analysis of deepwater drilling operations using Bayesian network[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2015,38:11-23.
[18] 刘刚,李伯尧,徐加兴,等.应用贝叶斯网络识别深水井控主要风险诱因[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(5):157-163.LIU Gang,LI Boyao,XU Jiaxing,et al.Application of Bayesian network to identifying principal risk factors in deepwater well control[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(5):157-163.
[19] ABIMBOLA M,KHAN F,KHAKZAD N,et al.Safety and risk analysis of managed pressure drilling operation using Bayesian network[J].Safety Science,2015,76:133-144.
[20] 王志远,孙宝江,高永海,等.深水司钻法压井模拟计算[J].石油学报,2008,29(5):786-790.WANG Zhiyuan,SUN Baojiang,GAO Yonghai,et al.Simulation computation of well killing with deepwater driller's method[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2008,29(5):786-790.
[21] 田家林,杨应林,杨令瑞,等.井喷失控井天然气喷量测定计算与实验研究[J].天然气工业,2017,37(3):77-82.TIAN Jialin,YANG Yinglin,YANG Lingrui,et al.Estimation of gas blowout volume in wells with uncontrolled blowout and laboratory studies[J].Natural Gas Industry,2017,37(3):77-82.
[22] 孙宝江,王志远,公培斌,等.深水井控的七组分多相流动模型[J].石油学报,2011,32(6):1042-1049.SUN Baojiang,WANG Zhiyuan,GONG Peibin,et al.Application of a seven-component multiphase flow model to deepwater well control[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2011,32(6):1042-1049.