两种不同方法下的矿井涌水量预测对比分析
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摘要
水文地质参数影响矿井涌水,而在岩溶山区矿山中,含水介质的非均质性、各向异性特别突出,水文地质参数的获取难度很大.因此,文章以弱化水文地质参数的依赖性为目标,应用相关分析和灰色系统理论模型对老鹰山煤矿1995—2013年的矿井涌水量进行拟合,建立了回归方程模型和GM(1,1)模型,并利用2014—2016年数据对模型预测结果进行了验证.结果表明相关分析中老鹰山煤矿矿井涌水量与降雨量密切相关,相关系数为0.835,模型曲线显示是变化形态上的预测,预测模型的精度达87.19%;灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型的精度良好为82.34%,适合于具有灰色特征的地质数据的模拟、控制和预测,模型曲线显示的是变化趋势上的预测;相关分析法比灰色理论法预测精度高.研究成果为岩溶山区矿井涌水防治提供可靠技术支撑.
The hydrogeological parameters affect the mine water inflow, but in the karst mountain mines,the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the aqueous medium are particularly prominent, and the acquisition of hydrogeological parameters is very difficult, aiming at weakening the dependence of hydrogeological parameters. The correlation analysis and grey system theory model were used to fit the mine water inflow from1995 to 2013 in the Eagle Mountain coal mine. The regression equation model and the GM(1,1) model were established, and the data from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the prediction results of the model. The results show that correlation analysis of Laoyingshan coal mine water inrush and rainfall is closely related,the correlation coefficient is 0.835, the model curve shows the change in the morphology of the forecast, the accuracy of the prediction model of 87.19%; gray system GM(1,1) prediction model The accuracy is 82.34%,which is suitable for the simulation, control and prediction of geological data with grey features. The model curve shows the prediction of change trends; the correlation analysis method has higher prediction accuracy than the grey theory method. The research results provide reliable technical support for the prevention of mine gushing in the karst mountainous area.
The hydrogeological parameters affect the mine water inflow, but in the karst mountain mines,the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the aqueous medium are particularly prominent, and the acquisition of hydrogeological parameters is very difficult, aiming at weakening the dependence of hydrogeological parameters. The correlation analysis and grey system theory model were used to fit the mine water inflow from1995 to 2013 in the Eagle Mountain coal mine. The regression equation model and the GM(1,1) model were established, and the data from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the prediction results of the model. The results show that correlation analysis of Laoyingshan coal mine water inrush and rainfall is closely related,the correlation coefficient is 0.835, the model curve shows the change in the morphology of the forecast, the accuracy of the prediction model of 87.19%; gray system GM(1,1) prediction model The accuracy is 82.34%,which is suitable for the simulation, control and prediction of geological data with grey features. The model curve shows the prediction of change trends; the correlation analysis method has higher prediction accuracy than the grey theory method. The research results provide reliable technical support for the prevention of mine gushing in the karst mountainous area.
引文
[1]郑世书,陈江中,刘汉湖.专门水文地质学[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出社, 1999.Zheng Shishu, Chen Jiangzhong, Liu Hanhu. Specialized Hydrogeology[M]. Xuzhou:China University of Mining and Technology, 1999.
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[5]李博,武强.煤层底板突水危险性变权评价理论及其工程应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2017,25(3):500-508.Li Bo,Wu Qiang.The Theory of Risk Assessment of Water Inrush Risk in Coal Seam Floor and Its Engineering Application[J].Journal of Applied Basic and Engineering Sciences,2017,25(3):500-508.
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[7]杜敏铭,邓英尔,许模.矿井涌水量预测方法综述[J].地质学报,2009,29(1):70-73.Du Minming, Deng Yinger, Xu Mo. A review of mine water inflow prediction methods[J]. Journal of Geology, 2009, 29(1):70-73.
[8]温文富,曹丽文.比拟法和解析法在某矿井涌水量预测中的分析比较[J].中国煤炭,2011,37(7):38-40.Wen Wenfu, Cao Liwen. Analysis and comparison of analogy and analytical methods in the prediction of water inflow in a mine[J]. China Coal, 2011, 37(7):38-40.
[9]邵爱军,张法旺,邵太升.煤矿地下水[M].北京:地质出版社,2005.Shao Aijun, Zhang Fawang, Shao Taisheng. Coal mine groundwater[M]. Beijing:Geological Publishing House, 2005.
[10]李昆,孙开畅,孙志禹,等.基于结构方程模型的施工安全潜变量相关分析[J].水利水电技术, 2013, 44(2):59-61.Li Kun, Sun Kaichang, Sun Zhiwei, et al. Correlation analysis of construction safety latent variables based on structural equation model[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2013, 44(2):59-61.
[11]边疆.五举煤矿矿井涌水量预测研究[J].吉林地质,2018,37(3):51-54.Bian jiang. Prediction of mine water inflow in Wuju Coal Mine[J].Jilin Geology, 2018,37(3):51-54.
[12]刘建成,张琪,崔祥坤.煤层顶板砂岩裂隙水涌水量预测方法研究[J].能源技术与管理,2011(2):27-29.Liu Jiancheng, Zhang Qi, Cui Xiangkun. Research on prediction method of water inrush in coal seam roof sandstone fissure[J]. Energy Technology and Management, 2011(2):27-29.
[13]李宝德,兰蓉,刘洋.浅析新疆经济的各产业发展是否均衡[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),2014,31(1):40-43.Li Baode,Lan Rong;,Liu Yang.Analysis of whether the development of various industries in Xinjiang is balanced[J].J Xinjiang Univ(Natural Sci Ed),2014,31(1):40-43
[14]山西省煤炭地质115勘查院.山西省大同煤田塔山井田石炭二叠系煤炭勘探地质报告[R].大同:同煤大唐塔山煤矿,2009.Shanxi Coal Geology 115 Exploration Institute. Coal exploration geological report of the Carboniferous Permian in the Tashan Mine Field, Datong Coalfield, Shanxi Province[R]. Datong:Tongtai Datang Tashan Coal Mine, 2009.
[15]周笑绿,杨国勇.一种矿井突水量预测的近似方法[J].西安科技大学学报,2005,25(3):341-344.Zhou Xiaolu, Yang Guoyong. An approximate method for mine water inrush prediction[J]. Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology, 2005, 25(3):341-344.
[16]李云峰,胥国富,左传明.梁花园矿井涌水量估算[J].中国煤田地质,2007,19(5):38-40.Li Yunfeng, Yan Guofu, Zuo Chuanming. Estimation of water inflow from Liangyuan Mine[J]. China Coal Geology, 2007,19(5):38-40.
[17]张梅琳.应用统计学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2007,67.Zhang Meilin. Applied statistics[M]. Shanghai:Fudan University Press, 2007,67.
[18]施龙青,赵云平.基于灰色理论的矿井涌水量预测[J].煤炭技术,2016,9(5):48-50.Shi Longqing, Zhao Yunping. mine water inflow prediction based on grey theory[J]. Coal Technology, 2016, 9(5):48-50.
[19]潘安定.北疆表土孢粉组合的灰色关联度分析[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),1992,9(1):79-85.Pan Anding. Analysis of Grey Correlation Degree of Topsoil Pollen Combination in Northern Xinjiang[J].J Xinjiang Univ(Natural Sci Ed),1992,9(1):79-85
[20]李朝阳,魏毅.基于MATLAB灰色GM(1,1)模型的大气污染物浓度预测[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(1):48-53.Li Chaoyang, Wei Yi. Prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentration based on MATLAB grey GM(1,1)model[J].Environmental Science and Management, 2012, 37(1):48-53.
[2]周如禄,戴振学,李颖.矿井涌水量预测的理论与实践[J].煤炭科学技术, 1998, 6:49-51.Zhou Rulu, Dai Zhenxue, Li Ying. Theory and Practice of Mine Water Inflow Prediction[J]. Coal Science and Technology,1998, 6:49-51.
[3]陈兆炎.煤田水文地质学[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1989.Chen Zhaoyan. Coalfield hydrogeology[M]. Beijing:Coal Industry Press, 1989.
[4]柴登榜.矿井地质手册[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1984.Chai Dengbang. Mine Geology Handbook[M]. Beijing:Coal Industry Press, 1984.
[5]李博,武强.煤层底板突水危险性变权评价理论及其工程应用[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2017,25(3):500-508.Li Bo,Wu Qiang.The Theory of Risk Assessment of Water Inrush Risk in Coal Seam Floor and Its Engineering Application[J].Journal of Applied Basic and Engineering Sciences,2017,25(3):500-508.
[6]昝雅玲,吴慧琦.用水文地质比拟法预算矿井涌水量[J].华北国土资源,2011,1:52-54.Zhai Yaling, Wu Huiqi. Hydrological and geological comparison method budget mine water inflow[J]. North China Land Resources, 2011, 1:52-54.
[7]杜敏铭,邓英尔,许模.矿井涌水量预测方法综述[J].地质学报,2009,29(1):70-73.Du Minming, Deng Yinger, Xu Mo. A review of mine water inflow prediction methods[J]. Journal of Geology, 2009, 29(1):70-73.
[8]温文富,曹丽文.比拟法和解析法在某矿井涌水量预测中的分析比较[J].中国煤炭,2011,37(7):38-40.Wen Wenfu, Cao Liwen. Analysis and comparison of analogy and analytical methods in the prediction of water inflow in a mine[J]. China Coal, 2011, 37(7):38-40.
[9]邵爱军,张法旺,邵太升.煤矿地下水[M].北京:地质出版社,2005.Shao Aijun, Zhang Fawang, Shao Taisheng. Coal mine groundwater[M]. Beijing:Geological Publishing House, 2005.
[10]李昆,孙开畅,孙志禹,等.基于结构方程模型的施工安全潜变量相关分析[J].水利水电技术, 2013, 44(2):59-61.Li Kun, Sun Kaichang, Sun Zhiwei, et al. Correlation analysis of construction safety latent variables based on structural equation model[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2013, 44(2):59-61.
[11]边疆.五举煤矿矿井涌水量预测研究[J].吉林地质,2018,37(3):51-54.Bian jiang. Prediction of mine water inflow in Wuju Coal Mine[J].Jilin Geology, 2018,37(3):51-54.
[12]刘建成,张琪,崔祥坤.煤层顶板砂岩裂隙水涌水量预测方法研究[J].能源技术与管理,2011(2):27-29.Liu Jiancheng, Zhang Qi, Cui Xiangkun. Research on prediction method of water inrush in coal seam roof sandstone fissure[J]. Energy Technology and Management, 2011(2):27-29.
[13]李宝德,兰蓉,刘洋.浅析新疆经济的各产业发展是否均衡[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),2014,31(1):40-43.Li Baode,Lan Rong;,Liu Yang.Analysis of whether the development of various industries in Xinjiang is balanced[J].J Xinjiang Univ(Natural Sci Ed),2014,31(1):40-43
[14]山西省煤炭地质115勘查院.山西省大同煤田塔山井田石炭二叠系煤炭勘探地质报告[R].大同:同煤大唐塔山煤矿,2009.Shanxi Coal Geology 115 Exploration Institute. Coal exploration geological report of the Carboniferous Permian in the Tashan Mine Field, Datong Coalfield, Shanxi Province[R]. Datong:Tongtai Datang Tashan Coal Mine, 2009.
[15]周笑绿,杨国勇.一种矿井突水量预测的近似方法[J].西安科技大学学报,2005,25(3):341-344.Zhou Xiaolu, Yang Guoyong. An approximate method for mine water inrush prediction[J]. Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology, 2005, 25(3):341-344.
[16]李云峰,胥国富,左传明.梁花园矿井涌水量估算[J].中国煤田地质,2007,19(5):38-40.Li Yunfeng, Yan Guofu, Zuo Chuanming. Estimation of water inflow from Liangyuan Mine[J]. China Coal Geology, 2007,19(5):38-40.
[17]张梅琳.应用统计学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2007,67.Zhang Meilin. Applied statistics[M]. Shanghai:Fudan University Press, 2007,67.
[18]施龙青,赵云平.基于灰色理论的矿井涌水量预测[J].煤炭技术,2016,9(5):48-50.Shi Longqing, Zhao Yunping. mine water inflow prediction based on grey theory[J]. Coal Technology, 2016, 9(5):48-50.
[19]潘安定.北疆表土孢粉组合的灰色关联度分析[J].新疆大学学报(自然科学版),1992,9(1):79-85.Pan Anding. Analysis of Grey Correlation Degree of Topsoil Pollen Combination in Northern Xinjiang[J].J Xinjiang Univ(Natural Sci Ed),1992,9(1):79-85
[20]李朝阳,魏毅.基于MATLAB灰色GM(1,1)模型的大气污染物浓度预测[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(1):48-53.Li Chaoyang, Wei Yi. Prediction of atmospheric pollutant concentration based on MATLAB grey GM(1,1)model[J].Environmental Science and Management, 2012, 37(1):48-53.