太湖流域湖西区入湖水量估算研究
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摘要
入湖水量计算是太湖流域水量动态控制的重要环节,对流域水资源管理具有重要意义。太湖湖西区1986年~2015年入湖水量的变化情况分析显示,入湖水量有不断增加的趋势。利用已有的各口门入湖流量资料(2001年~2015),采用主成分分析法遴选出代表性口门,建立其流量与巡测段入湖水量的回归模型。检验结果表明,模型估算得到的湖西区入湖水量与实测数据拟合度高;因此,该模型方法可用于实现监测口门数量的精简,完成简化入湖水量计算模型的目标。
Water inflow estimation is an important link in the dynamic control of water resources in Taihu Lake Basin. Through the analysis of the change of water entering the western area of Taihu Lake Basin from 1986 to 2015, it is found that there is an increasing trend of water entering Taihu Lake. Based on available inflow data of each inlet in 2001-2015, the principal component analysis method is used to select the representative inlets, and a regression model between the flow of representative inlets and the inflow of lake is established. The regression model is verified and the results show that the calculation values of water inflow are closed to measured values. It is proved that the model can effectively decrease the number of inlet monitoring and simplify water inflow estimation model.
Water inflow estimation is an important link in the dynamic control of water resources in Taihu Lake Basin. Through the analysis of the change of water entering the western area of Taihu Lake Basin from 1986 to 2015, it is found that there is an increasing trend of water entering Taihu Lake. Based on available inflow data of each inlet in 2001-2015, the principal component analysis method is used to select the representative inlets, and a regression model between the flow of representative inlets and the inflow of lake is established. The regression model is verified and the results show that the calculation values of water inflow are closed to measured values. It is proved that the model can effectively decrease the number of inlet monitoring and simplify water inflow estimation model.
引文
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[4]沈国华,王谦.太湖进出水量变化对水环境的影响[J].水资源保护,2013,29(1):46-60.
[5]仲兆林.常州沿江感潮河道水文站水位流量关系综合定线分析[J].广东水利水电,2009(11):33-34.
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[7]刘潇,薛莹,纪毓鹏,等.基于主成分分析法的黄河口及其邻近水域水质评价[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(10):3187-3192.
[8]农吉夫,黄文宁.基于主成分分析的BP神经网络长期预报模型[J].广西师范学院学报:自然科学版,2008,25(4):46-51.
[9]李薇,周建中,叶磊,等.基于主成分分析的三种中长期预报模型在柘溪水库的应用[J].水力发电,2016,42(9):17-21.
[10]邱红霞.基于主成分回归的阿克苏市城市需水量预测[J].地下水,2010,32(2):97-99.
[11]王春娟,冯利华,罗伟,等.主成分回归在需水预测中的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2013,24(1):50-53.
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