滑坡泥石流大尺度统计预报模型的实时检验
|
摘要
利用滑坡敏感性分布和降雨阈值公式建立了一个滑坡泥石流统计模型,该模型可以用于中国大尺度范围内的滑坡泥石流预警。使用CMORPH卫星降水驱动该统计模型,对2016—2017年的106起滑坡泥石流事件进行了验证分析。结果表明,该模型能较好地预警大多数滑坡泥石流事件,其中对72. 1%的雨季滑坡泥石流事件能较好预警,但对非雨季的事件只有35%能较好预警,对雨季的预警效果明显优于非雨季。由于滑坡泥石流主要发生在雨季,因此该模型总体上具有较好的效能。该模型对于强降雨引发的快速滑坡事件具有较好的预警能力,但对于由强度较小、持续时间较长的降雨引发的慢过程滑坡事件的预警效果有待提升。利用该统计模型以及CMORPH实时卫星降水产品,可以建立滑坡泥石流大尺度实时预警系统,对滑坡泥石流减灾防灾具有一定意义。
A statistical model of landslide and debris flow is established by using the landslide susceptibility distribution and the rainfall threshold formula.The landslide and debris flow in large scale across the country can be warned by this model.The statistical model was driven by CMORPH satellite precipitation in this paper,and 116 landslide and debris flow events occurred from 2016 to 2017 were validated and analyzed.The results show that the model can warn most of landslide and debris flow events,and 72. 1% of the events in rainy season can be warned,while only 35% of the events in non-rainy season can be forecasted.The effect of warning in rainy season is better than that in non-rainy season.Since the landslide and debris flow events mainly occurred in rainy season, the model is considered to have good performance.In addition, the model has a good warning ability for rapid landslides and debris-flows caused by heavy rainfall,however, the warning effect of the slow landslide events triggered by lower intensity and long duration rainfall needs to be improved.Using the statistical model and CMORPH satellite precipitation real-time products,a real-time forecast system for landslide and debris flow in large scale can be established,which has certain significance for landslide and debris flow reduction and disaster prevention.
A statistical model of landslide and debris flow is established by using the landslide susceptibility distribution and the rainfall threshold formula.The landslide and debris flow in large scale across the country can be warned by this model.The statistical model was driven by CMORPH satellite precipitation in this paper,and 116 landslide and debris flow events occurred from 2016 to 2017 were validated and analyzed.The results show that the model can warn most of landslide and debris flow events,and 72. 1% of the events in rainy season can be warned,while only 35% of the events in non-rainy season can be forecasted.The effect of warning in rainy season is better than that in non-rainy season.Since the landslide and debris flow events mainly occurred in rainy season, the model is considered to have good performance.In addition, the model has a good warning ability for rapid landslides and debris-flows caused by heavy rainfall,however, the warning effect of the slow landslide events triggered by lower intensity and long duration rainfall needs to be improved.Using the statistical model and CMORPH satellite precipitation real-time products,a real-time forecast system for landslide and debris flow in large scale can be established,which has certain significance for landslide and debris flow reduction and disaster prevention.
引文
Baum R L,Godt J W, 2010.Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA[J].Landslides,7(3):259-272.
Baum R L,William Z S,Godt J W,2008.TRIGRS—a Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis,version 2. 0[R].Open-File Report 2008-115.
Brunetti M T,Peruccacci S,Rossi M, et al.,2010.Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,10(3):447-458.
Brunetti M T,Melillo M,Peruccacci S,et al.,2018.How far are we from the use of satellite rainfall products in landslide forecasting?[J].Remote Sensing of Environment, 210:65-75.
Caine N, 1980.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows[J].Geografiska Annaler:Series A,Physical Geography,62(1/2):23-27.
Calvello M,D'orsi R N,Piciullo L, et al.,2015.The Rio de Janeiro early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides:analysis of performance for the years 2010—2013[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,12:3-15.
Chung M C,Tan C H,Chen C H, 2017.Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence:Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola[J].Landslides, 14(1):19-33.
Crozier M J, 2010.Deciphering the effect of climate change on landslide activity:a review[J].Geomorphology,124(3/4):260-267.
Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y, 2002.Landslide risk assessment and management:an overview[J].Engineering Geology,64(1):65-87.
Ding Y H,Wang Z Y, 2008.A study of rainy seasons in China[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,100(1/2/3/4):121-138.
Gariano S L,Guzzetti F,2016.Landslides in a changing climate[J].Earth-Science Reviews,162:227-252.
Gosling S N,Zaherpour J,Mount N J, et al.,2017.A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1℃,2℃and 3℃[J].Climatic Change,141(3):577-595.
Günther A,Reichenbach P,Malet J P,et al.,2013. Tier-based approaches for landslide susceptibility assessment in Europe[J]. Landslides,10(5):529-546.
Guzzetti F,Peruccacci S,Rossi M, et al., 2008.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows:an update[J].Landslides,5(1):3-17.
何爽爽,汪君,王会军, 2018.基于卫星降水和WRF预报降水的“6. 18”门头沟泥石流事件的回报检验研究[J].大气科学,42 (3):590-606. He S S,Wang J,Wang H W, et al., 2018.Hindcast study of“6. 18”Mentougou debris-flow event based on satellite rainfall and WRF forecasted rainfall[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 42(3):590-606.(in Chinese).
He S S,Wang J,Wang H J, 2018.Projection of landslides in china during the 21st Century under the RCP8. 5 scenario[J].Journal of Meteorological Research.
Hong Y,Adler R,Huffman G, 2006.Evaluation of the potential of NASA multi-satellite precipitation analysis in global landslide hazard assessment[J].Geophysical Research Letters,33(22):L22402.
Hong Y,Adler R F,Huffman G, 2007.An experimental global prediction system for rainfall-triggered landslides using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets[J].IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing,45(6):1671-1680.
Intrieri E,Gigli G,Mugnai F, et al.,2012.Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system[J].Engineering Geology, 147:124-136.Iverson R M,2000.Landslide triggering by rain infiltration[J].Water Resources Research, 36(7):1897-1910.
Joyce R J, Janowiak J E,Arkin P A, et al., 2004.CMORPH:a method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,5(3):487-503.
Kirschbaum D,Stanley T,2018.Satellite-based assessment of rainfall-triggered landslide hazard for situational awareness[J]. Earth's Future,6(3)505-523.
Kirschbaum D,Stanley T,Yatheendradas S,2016.Modeling landslide susceptibility over large regions with fuzzy overlay[J]. Landslides,13(3)485-496.
李媛,孟晖,董颖,等, 2004.中国地质灾害类型及其特征:基于全国县市地质灾害调查成果分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,15(2):29-34.Li Y,Meng H,Dong Y, et al.,2004.Main types and characterisitics of geo-hazard in China:based on the results of geo-hazard survey in 290counties[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,15(2):29-34.(in Chinese).
Liao Z H,Hong Y,Wang J, et al., 2010.Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets[J].Landslides,7(3):317-324.
Liao Z H,Hong Y,Kirschbaum D,et al.,2012.Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model[J].Environmental Earth Sciences, 66(6):1697-1705.
Liu C,Li W Y,Wu H B, et al., 2013.Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China's landslides based on multi-source data[J].Natural Hazards,69(3):1477-1495.
Mathew J,Babu D G,Kundu S, et al., 2014.Integrating intensity-duration-based rainfall threshold and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimate towards generating early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in parts of the Garhwal Himalaya, India[J].Landslides,11(4):575-588.
Montrasio L,Valentino R,2016.Modelling rainfall-induced shallow landslides at different scales using SLIP-partⅡ[J]. Procedia Engineering,158:482-486.
Montrasio L,Valentino R,Losi G L,2011.Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,11(7):1927-1947.
Osanai N,Shimizu T,Kuramoto K, et al., 2010.Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network[J].Landslides,7(3):325-338.
Posner A J,Georgakakos K P,2015.Soil moisture and precipitation thresholds for real-time landslide prediction in El Salvador[J].Landslides,12(6)1179-1196.
Rosi A,Peternel T, Jemec-Aufli cM, et al.,2016.Rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia[J].Landslides, 13(6):1571-1577.
Rossi M,Luciani S,Valigi D, et al., 2017.Statistical approaches for the definition of landslide rainfall thresholds and their uncertainty using rain gauge and satellite data[J].Geomorphology, 285:16-27.
Saez J L,Corona C,Stoffel M, et al.,2013.Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps[J].Geology,41(5)619-622.
沈艳,潘旸,宇婧婧,等, 2013.中国区域小时降水量融合产品的质量评估[J].大气科学学报,36(1):37-46. Shen Y,Pan Y,Yu J J, et al.,2013.Quality assessment of hourly merged precipitation product over China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 36(1):37-46.(in Chinese).
Skamarock W C,Klemp J B,Dudhia J, et al.,2008.A description of the advanced research WRF version 3[R].NCAR technical note NCAR/TN—475+STR.doi:10. 5065/D68S4MVH.
Valenzuela P,Domínguez-Cuesta M J,Mora García M A, et al., 2018.Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions(Asturias,NW Spain)[J].Landslides,15(2):273-282.
汪君,王会军,洪阳, 2016.中国洪涝滑坡灾害监测和动力数值预报系统研究[M].北京:气象出版社. Wang J,Wang H J,Hong Y,2016.A realtime monitoring and dynamical forecasting system for floods and landslides in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
Wentz F J,Ricciardulli L,Hilburn K, et al.,2007.How much more rain will global warming bring?[J].Science,317(5835):233-235.
Xie P P,Xiong A Y,2011.A conceptual model for constructing high-resolution gauge-satellite merged precipitation analyses[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,116.doi:10. 1029/2011jd016118.
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P, et al.,2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:climatology and extremes[J].Climate Dynamics,45 (7/8):2013-2031.
Baum R L,William Z S,Godt J W,2008.TRIGRS—a Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis,version 2. 0[R].Open-File Report 2008-115.
Brunetti M T,Peruccacci S,Rossi M, et al.,2010.Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,10(3):447-458.
Brunetti M T,Melillo M,Peruccacci S,et al.,2018.How far are we from the use of satellite rainfall products in landslide forecasting?[J].Remote Sensing of Environment, 210:65-75.
Caine N, 1980.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows[J].Geografiska Annaler:Series A,Physical Geography,62(1/2):23-27.
Calvello M,D'orsi R N,Piciullo L, et al.,2015.The Rio de Janeiro early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides:analysis of performance for the years 2010—2013[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,12:3-15.
Chung M C,Tan C H,Chen C H, 2017.Local rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslide occurrence:Taipingshan landslide triggered by Typhoon Saola[J].Landslides, 14(1):19-33.
Crozier M J, 2010.Deciphering the effect of climate change on landslide activity:a review[J].Geomorphology,124(3/4):260-267.
Dai F C,Lee C F,Ngai Y Y, 2002.Landslide risk assessment and management:an overview[J].Engineering Geology,64(1):65-87.
Ding Y H,Wang Z Y, 2008.A study of rainy seasons in China[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,100(1/2/3/4):121-138.
Gariano S L,Guzzetti F,2016.Landslides in a changing climate[J].Earth-Science Reviews,162:227-252.
Gosling S N,Zaherpour J,Mount N J, et al.,2017.A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1℃,2℃and 3℃[J].Climatic Change,141(3):577-595.
Günther A,Reichenbach P,Malet J P,et al.,2013. Tier-based approaches for landslide susceptibility assessment in Europe[J]. Landslides,10(5):529-546.
Guzzetti F,Peruccacci S,Rossi M, et al., 2008.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows:an update[J].Landslides,5(1):3-17.
何爽爽,汪君,王会军, 2018.基于卫星降水和WRF预报降水的“6. 18”门头沟泥石流事件的回报检验研究[J].大气科学,42 (3):590-606. He S S,Wang J,Wang H W, et al., 2018.Hindcast study of“6. 18”Mentougou debris-flow event based on satellite rainfall and WRF forecasted rainfall[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 42(3):590-606.(in Chinese).
He S S,Wang J,Wang H J, 2018.Projection of landslides in china during the 21st Century under the RCP8. 5 scenario[J].Journal of Meteorological Research.
Hong Y,Adler R,Huffman G, 2006.Evaluation of the potential of NASA multi-satellite precipitation analysis in global landslide hazard assessment[J].Geophysical Research Letters,33(22):L22402.
Hong Y,Adler R F,Huffman G, 2007.An experimental global prediction system for rainfall-triggered landslides using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets[J].IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing,45(6):1671-1680.
Intrieri E,Gigli G,Mugnai F, et al.,2012.Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system[J].Engineering Geology, 147:124-136.Iverson R M,2000.Landslide triggering by rain infiltration[J].Water Resources Research, 36(7):1897-1910.
Joyce R J, Janowiak J E,Arkin P A, et al., 2004.CMORPH:a method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,5(3):487-503.
Kirschbaum D,Stanley T,2018.Satellite-based assessment of rainfall-triggered landslide hazard for situational awareness[J]. Earth's Future,6(3)505-523.
Kirschbaum D,Stanley T,Yatheendradas S,2016.Modeling landslide susceptibility over large regions with fuzzy overlay[J]. Landslides,13(3)485-496.
李媛,孟晖,董颖,等, 2004.中国地质灾害类型及其特征:基于全国县市地质灾害调查成果分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,15(2):29-34.Li Y,Meng H,Dong Y, et al.,2004.Main types and characterisitics of geo-hazard in China:based on the results of geo-hazard survey in 290counties[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,15(2):29-34.(in Chinese).
Liao Z H,Hong Y,Wang J, et al., 2010.Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets[J].Landslides,7(3):317-324.
Liao Z H,Hong Y,Kirschbaum D,et al.,2012.Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model[J].Environmental Earth Sciences, 66(6):1697-1705.
Liu C,Li W Y,Wu H B, et al., 2013.Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China's landslides based on multi-source data[J].Natural Hazards,69(3):1477-1495.
Mathew J,Babu D G,Kundu S, et al., 2014.Integrating intensity-duration-based rainfall threshold and antecedent rainfall-based probability estimate towards generating early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in parts of the Garhwal Himalaya, India[J].Landslides,11(4):575-588.
Montrasio L,Valentino R,2016.Modelling rainfall-induced shallow landslides at different scales using SLIP-partⅡ[J]. Procedia Engineering,158:482-486.
Montrasio L,Valentino R,Losi G L,2011.Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,11(7):1927-1947.
Osanai N,Shimizu T,Kuramoto K, et al., 2010.Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network[J].Landslides,7(3):325-338.
Posner A J,Georgakakos K P,2015.Soil moisture and precipitation thresholds for real-time landslide prediction in El Salvador[J].Landslides,12(6)1179-1196.
Rosi A,Peternel T, Jemec-Aufli cM, et al.,2016.Rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia[J].Landslides, 13(6):1571-1577.
Rossi M,Luciani S,Valigi D, et al., 2017.Statistical approaches for the definition of landslide rainfall thresholds and their uncertainty using rain gauge and satellite data[J].Geomorphology, 285:16-27.
Saez J L,Corona C,Stoffel M, et al.,2013.Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps[J].Geology,41(5)619-622.
沈艳,潘旸,宇婧婧,等, 2013.中国区域小时降水量融合产品的质量评估[J].大气科学学报,36(1):37-46. Shen Y,Pan Y,Yu J J, et al.,2013.Quality assessment of hourly merged precipitation product over China[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 36(1):37-46.(in Chinese).
Skamarock W C,Klemp J B,Dudhia J, et al.,2008.A description of the advanced research WRF version 3[R].NCAR technical note NCAR/TN—475+STR.doi:10. 5065/D68S4MVH.
Valenzuela P,Domínguez-Cuesta M J,Mora García M A, et al., 2018.Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions(Asturias,NW Spain)[J].Landslides,15(2):273-282.
汪君,王会军,洪阳, 2016.中国洪涝滑坡灾害监测和动力数值预报系统研究[M].北京:气象出版社. Wang J,Wang H J,Hong Y,2016.A realtime monitoring and dynamical forecasting system for floods and landslides in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
Wentz F J,Ricciardulli L,Hilburn K, et al.,2007.How much more rain will global warming bring?[J].Science,317(5835):233-235.
Xie P P,Xiong A Y,2011.A conceptual model for constructing high-resolution gauge-satellite merged precipitation analyses[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,116.doi:10. 1029/2011jd016118.
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P, et al.,2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:climatology and extremes[J].Climate Dynamics,45 (7/8):2013-2031.