陕西省油松林生产力动态及对未来气候变化的响应
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摘要
本研究利用LPJ-GUESS模型,分析了陕西省油松林在未来时期(2015—2100年)不同气候情景下净初级生产力(NPP)的变化趋势.结果表明:在未来时期,研究区温度在RCP_(2.6)、RCP_(4.5)和RCP_(8.5)情景下将分别以0.12、0.23和0.54℃·10 a~(-1)的速率显著升高;降水在RCP_(2.6)和RCP_(8.5)情景下无显著变化,在RCP_(4.5)情景下将以14.36 mm·10 a~-1的速率显著增加.与历史时期(1961—1990年)相比,研究区油松林的NPP在未来时期将升高1.6%~29.6%;在RCP_(8.5)情景下21世纪末期(2071—2100年)油松林NPP将会升高45.4%;不同情景下油松林NPP表现为RCP_(8.5)>RCP_(4.5)>RCP_((2.6)).在未来时期,陕北地区油松林NPP在RCP_(2.6)和RCP_(4.5)情景下将分别以41.00和21.00 g C·m-2·10 a~(-1)的速率下降,该区油松林有变为碳源的可能.
This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity( NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100,using a dynamic vegetation model( LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period,annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0. 12,0. 23 and 0. 54 ℃ ·10 a~(-1) under RCP_(2.6),RCP_(4.5) and RCP_(8.5) scenarios,respectively,while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP_(4.5),under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a~(-1). Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period( 1961-1990),it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period,and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century( 2071-2100) under RCP_(8.5) scenario. The NPP under the RCP_(8.5) scenario was the highest,followed by the RCP_(4.5) and RCP_(2.6) scenarios. During2015-2100,the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m~(-2)·10 a~(-1) under the RCP_(2.6) and RCP_(4.5) scenarios,respectively,implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.
This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity( NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100,using a dynamic vegetation model( LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period,annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0. 12,0. 23 and 0. 54 ℃ ·10 a~(-1) under RCP_(2.6),RCP_(4.5) and RCP_(8.5) scenarios,respectively,while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP_(4.5),under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a~(-1). Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period( 1961-1990),it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period,and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century( 2071-2100) under RCP_(8.5) scenario. The NPP under the RCP_(8.5) scenario was the highest,followed by the RCP_(4.5) and RCP_(2.6) scenarios. During2015-2100,the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m~(-2)·10 a~(-1) under the RCP_(2.6) and RCP_(4.5) scenarios,respectively,implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.
引文
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[25]Cui G-Y(崔高阳),Chen Y-M(陈云明),Cao Y(曹扬),et al.Analysis on carbon stock distribution patterns of forest ecosystems in Shaanxi Province.Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology(植物生态学报),2015,39(4):333-342(in Chinese)
[26]Yang Y-J(杨玉姣),Chen Y-M(陈云明),Cao Y(曹扬).Carbon density and distribution of Pinus tabuliformis plantation ecosystem in Hilly Loess Plateau.Acta Ecologica Sinica(生态学报),2014,34(8):2128-2136(in Chinese)
[27]Li Q-H(李庆华).Carbon Storage at Tree Layer of Main Forest Types in Shaanxi Province.Ph D Thesis.Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2013(in Chinese)
[28]Ma Q-Y(马钦彦).A study on the biomass of Chinese pine forests.Journal of Beijing Forestry University(北京林业大学学报),1989,11(4):1-10(in Chinese)
[29]Tian J(田杰),Yu D-P(于大炮),Zhou L(周莉),et al.Carbon density of forest ecosystems in mountainous region of east Liaoning Province,Northeast China.Chinese Journal of Ecology(生态学杂志),2012,31(11):2723-2729(in Chinese)
[30]Sitch S,Smith B,Prentice IC,et al.Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics,plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model.Global Change Biology,2003,9:161-185
[31]Peng SZ,Ding YX,Wen ZM,et al.Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the loess plateau of china during 2011-2100.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2017,233:183-194
[32]Mc Guire AD,Sitch S,Clein JS,et al.Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century:Analyses of CO2,climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2001,15:183-206
[33]Wang N-J(王乃江),Hou Q-C(侯庆春),Zhang W-H(张文辉),et al.Photosynthesis and drought resistance of the native species in Loess Plateau.Journal of Northwest Forestry University(西北林学院报),2006,21(3):26-29(in Chinese)
[34]Atta R,Dawood M.Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope approach.Climate Dynamics,2017,48:789-797
[35]Wang D-L(王佃来),Liu W-P(刘文萍),Huang X-Y(黄心渊).Trend analysis in vegetation cover in Beijing based on Sen+Mann-Kendall method.Computer Engineering and Applications(计算机工程与应用),2013,49(5):13-17(in Chinese)
[36]Xu CH,Xu Y.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5:527-533
[37]Wang G-Q(王国庆),Zhang J-Y(张建云),Jin J-L(金君良),et al.Variation trend of RCP-based climatic scenarios for yellow river basin.Journal of China Hydrology(水文),2014,34(2):8-13(in Chinese)
[38]Lin W,Wen CH.A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature,precipitation,and climatological drought in China.International Journal of Climatology,2014,34:2059-2078
[39]Zhang Q(张强),Zhang C-J(张存杰),Bai H-Z(白虎志),et al.New development of climate change in Northwest China and its impact on arid environment.Arid Meteorology(干旱气象),2010,28(1):1-7(in Chinese)
[40]Zhao D-S(赵东升),Wu S-H(吴绍洪),Yin Y-H(尹云鹤),et al.Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2011,22(4):897-904(in Chinese)
[41]Fan M-R(范敏锐),Yu X-X(余新晓),Zhang Z-M(张振明),et al.Net primary productivity of a Pinus tabuliformis forest in Beijing mountainous area in response to different climate change scenarios.Journal of Northeast Forestry University(东北林业大学学报),2010,38(11):46-48(in Chinese)
[42]Fang JY.Forest productivity in China and its response to global climate change.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2000,24:513-517
[43]Chen WJ,Black TA,Yang PC,et al.Effects of climatic variability on the annual carbon sequestration by a boreal aspen forest.Global Change Biology,1999,5:41-53
[44]Jarvis P,Linder S.Botany:Constraints to growth of boreal forests.Nature,2000,405:904-905
[45]Kimball JS,Mc Donald KC,Running SW,et al.Satellite radar remote sensing of seasonal growing seasons for boreal and subalpine evergreen forests.Remote Sensing of Environment,2004,90:243-258
[46]Vukic'evic'T,Braswell BH,Schimel DS.A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange.Tellus Series B:Chemical and Physical Meteorology,2001,53:150-170
[47]Peng J-J(彭俊杰),He X-Y(何兴元),Chen Z-J(陈振举),et al.Responses of Pinus tabuliformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2:A simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2012,23(7):1733-1742(in Chinese)
[48]Peng SZ,Zhao CY,Chen YM,et al.Simulating the productivity of a subalpine forest at high elevations under representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China.Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research,2017,32:166-173
[49]Cramer W,Bondeau A,Woodward FI,et al.Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2and climate change:Results from six dynamic global vegetation models.Global Change Biology,2001,7:357-373
[50]Zhao DS,Wu SH,Yin YH.Responses of terrestrial ecosystems’net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.PLo S One,2013,8(4):e60849
[2]Friend AD,Lucht W,Rademacher TT,et al.Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2014,111:3280-3285
[3]Dixon RK,Brown S,Houghton RA,et al.Carbon pool and flux of global forest ecosystems.Science,1994,263:185-190
[4]Heimann M,Reichstein M.Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks.Nature,2008,451:289-292
[5]Lorenz K,Lal R.Carbon Sequestration in Forest Ecosystems.Amstedam,the Netherlands:Springer,2010
[6]Wiesmeier M,Prietzel J,Barthold F,et al.Storage and drivers of organic carbon in forest soils of southeast Germany(Bavaria):Implications for carbon sequestration.Forest Ecology and Management,2013,295:162-172
[7]Piao SL,Fang JY,Chen AP.Seasonal dynamics of terrestrial net primary production in response to climate changes in China.Journal of Integrative Plant Biology,2003,45:269-275
[8]Yan F-F(延芳芳).Research advances in carbon flux observation methods for terrestrial ecosystems.Science and Technology for Development(科技促进发展),2012(4):158-159(in Chinese)
[9]Lou X-T(娄雪婷),Zeng Y(曾源),Wu B-F(吴炳方).Advances in the estimation of above-ground biomass of forest using remote sensing.Remote Sensing for Land and Resources(国土资源遥感),2011(1):1-8(in Chinese)
[10]Fan X-L(樊晓亮),Yan P(闫平).Estimation methods and its advances for forest carbon sequestration.Protection Forest Science and Technology(防护林科技),2010(1):60-63(in Chinese)
[11]Xiao X,Zhang Q,Saleska S,et al.Satellite-based modeling of gross primary production in a seasonally moist tropical evergreen forest.Remote Sensing of Environment,2005,94:105-122
[12]Piao SL,Fang JY,Ciais P,et al.The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China.Nature,2009,458:1009-1014
[13]Peng S-Z(彭守璋).Study on Growth Processes and Ability of Carbon Sequestration of Qinghai Spruce Forest in Qilian Mountains.Ph D Thesis.Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2015(in Chinese)
[14]Cao MK,Woodward FI.Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling to global climate change.Nature,1998,393:249-252
[15]Bonan GB,Levis S,Sitch S,et al.A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models:Concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics.Global Change Biology,2003,9:1543-1566
[16]Smith B,Samuelsson P,Wramneby A,et al.A model of the coupled dynamics of climate,vegetation and terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemistry for regional applications.Tellus Series A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,2011,63:87-106
[17]Smith B,Prentice IC,Sykes MT.Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modeling of terrestrial ecosystems:Comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space.Global Ecology and Biogeography,2001,10:621-637
[18]Liu R-G(刘瑞刚),Li N(李娜),Su H-X(苏宏新),et al.Simulation and analysis on future carbon balance of three deciduous forests in Beijing Mountain area,warm temperature zone of China.Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology(植物生态学报),2009,33(3):516-534(in Chinese)
[19]Li L(李亮),Su H-X(苏宏新),Sang W-G(桑卫国).Simulating impacts of summer drought on forest dynamics in Dongling Mountain.Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology(植物生态学报),2011,35(2):147-158(in Chinese)
[20]Cao Y(曹扬),Chen Y-M(陈云明),Qu M(渠美).Dynamic change of carbon storage,production and economic value of carbon capture and oxygen release by forest in Shaanxi Province.Journal of Northwest A&FUniversity(Natural Science)(西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版),2013,41(5):114-120(in Chinese)
[21]Jiang D-S(蒋定生).Soil Erosion and Control Models in Loess Plateau.Beijing:China Water&Power Press,1998(in Chinese)
[22]Wu Q-X(吴钦孝),Yang W-Z(杨文治).Forest and Grassland Vegetation Construction and Its Sustainable Development in Loess Plateau.Beijing:Science Press,1998(in Chinese)
[23]Ma Q(马琪),Liu K(刘康),Zhang H(张慧).Carbon storage by forest vegetation and its spatial distribution in Shaanxi.Resources Science(资源科学),2012,34(9):1781-1789(in Chinese)
[24]Cao Y(曹扬),Chen Y-M(陈云明),Jin B(晋蓓),et al.Carbon storage and density of forest vegetation and its spatial distribution pattern in Shaanxi Province.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment(干旱区资源与环境),2014,28(9):69-73(in Chinese)
[25]Cui G-Y(崔高阳),Chen Y-M(陈云明),Cao Y(曹扬),et al.Analysis on carbon stock distribution patterns of forest ecosystems in Shaanxi Province.Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology(植物生态学报),2015,39(4):333-342(in Chinese)
[26]Yang Y-J(杨玉姣),Chen Y-M(陈云明),Cao Y(曹扬).Carbon density and distribution of Pinus tabuliformis plantation ecosystem in Hilly Loess Plateau.Acta Ecologica Sinica(生态学报),2014,34(8):2128-2136(in Chinese)
[27]Li Q-H(李庆华).Carbon Storage at Tree Layer of Main Forest Types in Shaanxi Province.Ph D Thesis.Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2013(in Chinese)
[28]Ma Q-Y(马钦彦).A study on the biomass of Chinese pine forests.Journal of Beijing Forestry University(北京林业大学学报),1989,11(4):1-10(in Chinese)
[29]Tian J(田杰),Yu D-P(于大炮),Zhou L(周莉),et al.Carbon density of forest ecosystems in mountainous region of east Liaoning Province,Northeast China.Chinese Journal of Ecology(生态学杂志),2012,31(11):2723-2729(in Chinese)
[30]Sitch S,Smith B,Prentice IC,et al.Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics,plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model.Global Change Biology,2003,9:161-185
[31]Peng SZ,Ding YX,Wen ZM,et al.Spatiotemporal change and trend analysis of potential evapotranspiration over the loess plateau of china during 2011-2100.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2017,233:183-194
[32]Mc Guire AD,Sitch S,Clein JS,et al.Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century:Analyses of CO2,climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models.Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2001,15:183-206
[33]Wang N-J(王乃江),Hou Q-C(侯庆春),Zhang W-H(张文辉),et al.Photosynthesis and drought resistance of the native species in Loess Plateau.Journal of Northwest Forestry University(西北林学院报),2006,21(3):26-29(in Chinese)
[34]Atta R,Dawood M.Spatio-statistical analysis of temperature fluctuation using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope approach.Climate Dynamics,2017,48:789-797
[35]Wang D-L(王佃来),Liu W-P(刘文萍),Huang X-Y(黄心渊).Trend analysis in vegetation cover in Beijing based on Sen+Mann-Kendall method.Computer Engineering and Applications(计算机工程与应用),2013,49(5):13-17(in Chinese)
[36]Xu CH,Xu Y.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5:527-533
[37]Wang G-Q(王国庆),Zhang J-Y(张建云),Jin J-L(金君良),et al.Variation trend of RCP-based climatic scenarios for yellow river basin.Journal of China Hydrology(水文),2014,34(2):8-13(in Chinese)
[38]Lin W,Wen CH.A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature,precipitation,and climatological drought in China.International Journal of Climatology,2014,34:2059-2078
[39]Zhang Q(张强),Zhang C-J(张存杰),Bai H-Z(白虎志),et al.New development of climate change in Northwest China and its impact on arid environment.Arid Meteorology(干旱气象),2010,28(1):1-7(in Chinese)
[40]Zhao D-S(赵东升),Wu S-H(吴绍洪),Yin Y-H(尹云鹤),et al.Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2011,22(4):897-904(in Chinese)
[41]Fan M-R(范敏锐),Yu X-X(余新晓),Zhang Z-M(张振明),et al.Net primary productivity of a Pinus tabuliformis forest in Beijing mountainous area in response to different climate change scenarios.Journal of Northeast Forestry University(东北林业大学学报),2010,38(11):46-48(in Chinese)
[42]Fang JY.Forest productivity in China and its response to global climate change.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,2000,24:513-517
[43]Chen WJ,Black TA,Yang PC,et al.Effects of climatic variability on the annual carbon sequestration by a boreal aspen forest.Global Change Biology,1999,5:41-53
[44]Jarvis P,Linder S.Botany:Constraints to growth of boreal forests.Nature,2000,405:904-905
[45]Kimball JS,Mc Donald KC,Running SW,et al.Satellite radar remote sensing of seasonal growing seasons for boreal and subalpine evergreen forests.Remote Sensing of Environment,2004,90:243-258
[46]Vukic'evic'T,Braswell BH,Schimel DS.A diagnostic study of temperature controls on global terrestrial carbon exchange.Tellus Series B:Chemical and Physical Meteorology,2001,53:150-170
[47]Peng J-J(彭俊杰),He X-Y(何兴元),Chen Z-J(陈振举),et al.Responses of Pinus tabuliformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2:A simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology(应用生态学报),2012,23(7):1733-1742(in Chinese)
[48]Peng SZ,Zhao CY,Chen YM,et al.Simulating the productivity of a subalpine forest at high elevations under representative concentration pathway(RCP)scenarios in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China.Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research,2017,32:166-173
[49]Cramer W,Bondeau A,Woodward FI,et al.Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2and climate change:Results from six dynamic global vegetation models.Global Change Biology,2001,7:357-373
[50]Zhao DS,Wu SH,Yin YH.Responses of terrestrial ecosystems’net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.PLo S One,2013,8(4):e60849