1961-2014年淮河流域极端气温时空特征及区域响应
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摘要
基于淮河流域气温日数据和趋势性、相关性等方法,全面分析淮河流域极端气温时空变化特征和流域气温变化对全球气候变化的区域响应。研究表明:①最低气温极高值与最低气温极低值呈大范围显著上升趋势,最大增幅为0.4℃/10a及1.3℃/10a。东南部城市化高引起的热岛效应是极端暖指数在淮河流域东南部呈显著上升趋势的主要原因;②极端冷指数呈下降趋势,除IDO和CID,淮河流域绝大部分地区其他极端冷指数呈显著下降趋势,气候变暖延长了淮河流域作物生长季;③淮河流域极端冷指数变化幅度大于极端暖指数,夜指数大于昼指数;东部地区极端气温指数变化幅度和显著性检验通过率均大于西部地区,且东南部的极端暖指数增幅是最大的;突变发生时间上,极端冷指数早于极端暖指数约10 a;多数极端气温指数变化趋势与经纬度、海拔显著相关。
Based on daily temperature(maximum,minimum and average) data of 153 meteorological stations,the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Huaihe River basin from 1961 to 2014 are analyzed from the perspective of trend and correlation,using statistical methods to calculate 26 extreme temperature indices.The regional response of climate change in the basin is further discussed by comparing with other regional temperature changes.The results are as follows:(1) The maximum Tmaxand minimum Tminrise by a wide range of significant trend,the largest increase was 0.4 ℃/10 a and 1.3 ℃/10 a.Warm night days,summer days,hot wave spell duration indicator,and others in the Huaihe River basin as a whole are on the rise.The warm evenings with hot night index showed a trend of wide range increases significantly,with an increase of 6.3 d/10 a and 7.1 d/10 a.(2) Cold days,cold nights,frost days,icing days,cold spell duration indicator,cold wave spell duration indicator and frost spell duration indicator have significantly decreased by-2.3,-6.8,-10.0,-2.5,-10.0,-7.3,-4.3 d/10 a,respectively.(3) The diurnal temperature range in the Huaihe River basin is decreasing in general.The growing season length shows statistically significant increasing trends at rates of 7.6 d/10 a,while the temperature index in the growing season length is slightly lower.(4) The extreme temperature indices of the Huaihe River basin have obvious differences in variation range,spatial distribution,time of mutation occurrence and correlation.In terms of change amplitude,the extreme cold index is greater than the extreme warmth index,and the night index is greater than the day index.On spatial distribution,the variation amplitude of these indices and significance test pass rate are greater in eastern region than in western region,and the increase of extreme warm indices in the southeast of the Huaihe River basin is far greater than in other areas.And extreme cold index mutations occur earlier than warm about 10 a.The most extreme temperature indices are correlated with the longitude,latitude and altitude.Particularly,the trend of main extreme temperature indices of the Huaihe River basin is consistent with regional and global scales.
Based on daily temperature(maximum,minimum and average) data of 153 meteorological stations,the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Huaihe River basin from 1961 to 2014 are analyzed from the perspective of trend and correlation,using statistical methods to calculate 26 extreme temperature indices.The regional response of climate change in the basin is further discussed by comparing with other regional temperature changes.The results are as follows:(1) The maximum Tmaxand minimum Tminrise by a wide range of significant trend,the largest increase was 0.4 ℃/10 a and 1.3 ℃/10 a.Warm night days,summer days,hot wave spell duration indicator,and others in the Huaihe River basin as a whole are on the rise.The warm evenings with hot night index showed a trend of wide range increases significantly,with an increase of 6.3 d/10 a and 7.1 d/10 a.(2) Cold days,cold nights,frost days,icing days,cold spell duration indicator,cold wave spell duration indicator and frost spell duration indicator have significantly decreased by-2.3,-6.8,-10.0,-2.5,-10.0,-7.3,-4.3 d/10 a,respectively.(3) The diurnal temperature range in the Huaihe River basin is decreasing in general.The growing season length shows statistically significant increasing trends at rates of 7.6 d/10 a,while the temperature index in the growing season length is slightly lower.(4) The extreme temperature indices of the Huaihe River basin have obvious differences in variation range,spatial distribution,time of mutation occurrence and correlation.In terms of change amplitude,the extreme cold index is greater than the extreme warmth index,and the night index is greater than the day index.On spatial distribution,the variation amplitude of these indices and significance test pass rate are greater in eastern region than in western region,and the increase of extreme warm indices in the southeast of the Huaihe River basin is far greater than in other areas.And extreme cold index mutations occur earlier than warm about 10 a.The most extreme temperature indices are correlated with the longitude,latitude and altitude.Particularly,the trend of main extreme temperature indices of the Huaihe River basin is consistent with regional and global scales.
引文
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[20]谢志祥,李亚男,秦耀辰,等.1960-2012年淮河流域极端气温变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(7):407-416.XIE Z X,LI Y N,QIN Y C,et al.Evolution characteristics of the extreme temperature in Huaihe River basin from 1960 to 2012[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(7):407-416.
[21]王大钧.国际标准气候变化指数简介及其温度指数在中国的应用[C]∥2007年中国气象学会年会气候变化分会场论文集.广州,2007.
[22]王佃来,刘文萍,黄心渊.基于Sen+Mann-Kendall的北京植被变化趋势分析[J].计算机工程与应用,2013,49(5):13-17.WANG D L,LIU W P,HUANG X Y.Trend analysis in vegetation cover in Beijing based on Sen+Mann-Kendall method[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2013,49(5):13-17.
[23]KAHYA E,KALAYC I S.Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,289(1):128-144.
[24]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007:69-72.
[25]史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析[J].大气科学,2009,33(2):347-358.SHI J,DING Y Y,CUI L L.Climatic characteristics of extreme maximum temperature in East China and its causes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(2):347-358.
[26]楚纯洁,赵景波,安春华.1957-2011年中国中部不同气候带气候变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(5):121-127.CHU C J,ZHAO J B,AN C H.Climate changes in different climate zones in central China and their relationship with ENSO from 1957 to 2011[J].Areal Research and Development,2015,34(5):121-127.
[27]曾婷,杨东,朱小凡,等.ENSO事件对安徽省气候变化和旱涝灾害的影响[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(1):215-223.ZENG T,YANG D,ZHU X F,et al.Impact of ENSO events on climate change and drought and flood disasters in Anhui Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(1):215-223.
[28]韩文韬.近50年中国冬夏气温对ENSO响应的年代际变化特征研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.
[29]周雅清,任国玉.中国大陆1956-2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):405-417.ZHOU Y Q,REN G Y.Variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices in mainland China during 1956-2008[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):405-417.
[30]翟盘茂,任富民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.ZHAI P M,REN F M.On changes of China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent 40 years[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1997,55(4):418-429.
[31]ALEXANDER L V.Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes:A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2016,(11):4-16.
[32]苏京志,温敏,丁一汇,等.全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1143-1153.SU J Z,WEN M,DING Y H,et al.Hiatus of global warming:A review[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(6):1143-1153.
[33]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.QIN D H.Climate change science and sustainable development[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(7):874-883.
[34]赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.极端天气与气候事件受到全球变暖影响吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):388-390.ZHAO Z C,LUO,Y,HUANG J B.Are extreme weather and climate events affected by global warming?[J]Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,10(5):388-390.
[2]CAO L J,ZHAO P,YAN Z,et al.Instrumental temperature series in eastern and central China back to the nineteenth century[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013,118(15):8197-8207.
[3]CHRISTIDIS N,STOTT P A.Attribution analyses of temperature extremes using a set of 16 indices[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2016,14:24-35.
[4]CHRISTIDIS N,STOTT P A,BROWN S,et al.Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(20):242-257.
[5]DULAMSUREN D,JONG P K.Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes over Mongolia[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2015,8:26-33.
[6]RUML M,GREGORIC E,VUJADINOVIC M,et al.Observed changes of temperature extremes in Serbia over the period 1961-2010[J].Atmospheric Research,2017,183:26-41.
[7]BOCCOLARI M,MALMUSI S.Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena,Italy.Atmospheric Research,2013,122(3):16-31.
[8]MARIGIL S N,NJOGU A K,GITHUNGO W N.Trends of extreme temperature and rainfall indices for arid and semi-arid lands of south eastern Kenya[J].Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,2016,4(12):158-171.
[9]SCHOOFf J T,ROBESON S M.Projecting changes in regional temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2016,11:28-40.
[10]XU Y,ZHOU B T,WU J,et.al.Asian climate change under 1.5-4℃warming targets[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2017,8(2):99-107.
[11]ZHANG Y J,GAO Z Q,PAN Z T,et.al.Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature frequency and amplitude in China[J].Atmospheric Research,2017,185:131-141.
[12]王琼,张明军,王圣杰,等.1962-2011年长江流域极端气温事件分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(5):611-625.WANG Q,ZHANG M J,WANG S J,et al.Extreme temperature events in Yangtze River Basin during 1962-2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(5):611-625.
[13]LIANG K,BAI P,LI J J,et al.Variability of temperature extremes in the Yellow River basin during 1961-2011[J].Quaternary International,2014,336:52-64.
[14]JIANG C,MU X M,WANG F,ZHAO G J.Analysis of extreme temperature events in the Qinling Mountains and surrounding area during 1960-2012[J].Quaternary International,2016,392(4):155-167.
[15]刘青娥,吴孝情,陈晓宏,等.珠江流域1960-2012年极端气温的时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(8):1356-1366.LIU Q E,WU X Q,CHEN X H,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of extreme temperature in the Pearl River basin during 1960-2012[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(8):1356-1366.
[16]慈晖,张强,张江辉,等.1961-2010年新疆极端气温时空演变特征研究[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2015,54(4):129-138.CI H,ZHANG Q,ZHANG J H,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of extreme temperature events over Xinjiang during 1961-2010[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2015,54(4):129-138.
[17]黄小燕,王小平,王劲松,等.1960-2013年中国沿海极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):612-620.HUANG X Y,WANG X Q,WANG J S,et al.Variation of extreme temperature events in coastal region of China in 1960-2013[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):612-620.
[18]宁远,钱敏,王玉太.淮河流域水手册[M].北京:科学出版社,2003:1-3.
[19]王珂清,曾燕,谢志清,等.1961-2008年淮河流域气温和降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2012,32(6):671-677.WANG K Q,ZENG Y,X Z Q,et al.Change trend of temperature and precipitation in Huaihe River basin from1961 to 2008[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(6):671-677.
[20]谢志祥,李亚男,秦耀辰,等.1960-2012年淮河流域极端气温变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(7):407-416.XIE Z X,LI Y N,QIN Y C,et al.Evolution characteristics of the extreme temperature in Huaihe River basin from 1960 to 2012[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(7):407-416.
[21]王大钧.国际标准气候变化指数简介及其温度指数在中国的应用[C]∥2007年中国气象学会年会气候变化分会场论文集.广州,2007.
[22]王佃来,刘文萍,黄心渊.基于Sen+Mann-Kendall的北京植被变化趋势分析[J].计算机工程与应用,2013,49(5):13-17.WANG D L,LIU W P,HUANG X Y.Trend analysis in vegetation cover in Beijing based on Sen+Mann-Kendall method[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2013,49(5):13-17.
[23]KAHYA E,KALAYC I S.Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey[J].Journal of Hydrology,2004,289(1):128-144.
[24]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].2版.北京:气象出版社,2007:69-72.
[25]史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析[J].大气科学,2009,33(2):347-358.SHI J,DING Y Y,CUI L L.Climatic characteristics of extreme maximum temperature in East China and its causes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,33(2):347-358.
[26]楚纯洁,赵景波,安春华.1957-2011年中国中部不同气候带气候变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(5):121-127.CHU C J,ZHAO J B,AN C H.Climate changes in different climate zones in central China and their relationship with ENSO from 1957 to 2011[J].Areal Research and Development,2015,34(5):121-127.
[27]曾婷,杨东,朱小凡,等.ENSO事件对安徽省气候变化和旱涝灾害的影响[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(1):215-223.ZENG T,YANG D,ZHU X F,et al.Impact of ENSO events on climate change and drought and flood disasters in Anhui Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(1):215-223.
[28]韩文韬.近50年中国冬夏气温对ENSO响应的年代际变化特征研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2013.
[29]周雅清,任国玉.中国大陆1956-2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):405-417.ZHOU Y Q,REN G Y.Variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices in mainland China during 1956-2008[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):405-417.
[30]翟盘茂,任富民.中国近四十年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418-429.ZHAI P M,REN F M.On changes of China's maximum and minimum temperatures in the recent 40 years[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1997,55(4):418-429.
[31]ALEXANDER L V.Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes:A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2016,(11):4-16.
[32]苏京志,温敏,丁一汇,等.全球变暖趋缓研究进展[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1143-1153.SU J Z,WEN M,DING Y H,et al.Hiatus of global warming:A review[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2016,40(6):1143-1153.
[33]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(7):874-883.QIN D H.Climate change science and sustainable development[J].Progress in Geography,2014,33(7):874-883.
[34]赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌.极端天气与气候事件受到全球变暖影响吗?[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(5):388-390.ZHAO Z C,LUO,Y,HUANG J B.Are extreme weather and climate events affected by global warming?[J]Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,10(5):388-390.