基于层次分析-模糊综合评价法的水利枢纽灌区工程防汛风险评估
|
摘要
基于我国水利枢纽灌区工程防汛度汛现状,将此类工程防汛风险划分为4个一级指标,12个二级指标,运用层次分析法(AHP)赋予各风险指标权重,进而采用模糊综合评价法确定各风险指标在风险概率、风险损失量、风险预测性和风险进一步恶化可能性4个层次评价标准下的风险指数,并结合各风险指数的权重对防汛风险进行综合的定量与定性评估。选取某灌区二期工程为例,证明该理论可用来降低灌区工程的防汛风险,规避损失,为我国形成完备的水利枢纽灌区工程防汛风险评估体系提供理论指导依据。
Based on current situation of flood control and flood season in China's water conservancy hub project,the flood risk of such projects was divided into four first-level indicators and twelve second-level indicators. AHP was used to assign weight to each risk indicator,and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the risk index of each risk index under the four levels of risk probability,risk loss,risk predictability and probability of further deterioration of risk,and made a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of flood risk in combination with the weight of each risk index. A second phase project of an irrigation district was taken as an example,it was proved that the theory could be used to reduce the risk of flood control in irrigation projects and avoid losses,and provide theoretical guidance for the formation of a complete risk assessment system of flood control in the irrigation district of China.
Based on current situation of flood control and flood season in China's water conservancy hub project,the flood risk of such projects was divided into four first-level indicators and twelve second-level indicators. AHP was used to assign weight to each risk indicator,and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the risk index of each risk index under the four levels of risk probability,risk loss,risk predictability and probability of further deterioration of risk,and made a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative assessment of flood risk in combination with the weight of each risk index. A second phase project of an irrigation district was taken as an example,it was proved that the theory could be used to reduce the risk of flood control in irrigation projects and avoid losses,and provide theoretical guidance for the formation of a complete risk assessment system of flood control in the irrigation district of China.
引文
[1]唐迎洲,徐贵泉.上海市防汛减灾能力评价指标体系研究[J].给水排水,2014,50(6):34-38.
[2]陈峰.城市地下空间防汛风险综合评估研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2012,8(3):621-629.Chen Feng.Flood prevention&risk synthetical estimation of urban underground space[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2012,8(3):621-629.
[3]刘宁.防汛抗旱与水旱灾害风险管理[J].中国防汛抗旱,2012,22(2):1-4.
[4]刘杨,张瑞海,韩岭,等.基于MIKE FLOOD模型的西北城市河道橡胶坝群洪水风险分析研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2016,14(6):113-119.Liu Yang,Zhang Ruihai,Han Ling,et al.Flood risk analysis of rubber dams group in the urban rivers of northwest China based on MIKE FLOOD model[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2016,14(6):113-119.
[5]Tiryaki F,Ahlatcioglu B.Fuzzy portfolio selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Information Sciences,2009,179(12):53-69.
[6]Maeda H,Murakami S.The use of fuzzy decision-making method in a large-scale computer system choice problem[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1993,54(3):235-249.
[7]张鹏岩.基于引黄灌区土地变化的可持续性评价研究:以开封市黑柳灌区四乡为例[D].开封:河南大学,2013.Zhang Pengyan.Sustainability evaluation of land change based on the yellow river irrigation areas:a case study of four towns in the heigangkou and liuyuankou irrigation areas of Kaifeng[D].Kaifeng:Henan University,2013.
[8]孙博,肖汝诚.基于层次分析-模糊综合评价法的桥梁火灾风险评估体系[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(11):1 619-1 625.Sun Bo,Xiao Rucheng.Bridge fire risk assessment system based on analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2015,43(11):1 619-1 625.
[9]王君岩.运用层次分析法构建我国上市公司内部业绩评价体系[J].会计师,2016(3):37-38.
[10]刘佳琳.模糊统计决策理论基础上的大型工程项目风险评估方法研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2013.Liu Jialin.Study on risk analysis of large engineering project method based on fuzzy statistical decision theory[D].Changchun:Jilin U-niversity,2013.
[11]岑兆伍.堤坝裂缝抢险技术探析[J].沿海企业与科技,2011(6):96-97.
[2]陈峰.城市地下空间防汛风险综合评估研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2012,8(3):621-629.Chen Feng.Flood prevention&risk synthetical estimation of urban underground space[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2012,8(3):621-629.
[3]刘宁.防汛抗旱与水旱灾害风险管理[J].中国防汛抗旱,2012,22(2):1-4.
[4]刘杨,张瑞海,韩岭,等.基于MIKE FLOOD模型的西北城市河道橡胶坝群洪水风险分析研究[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2016,14(6):113-119.Liu Yang,Zhang Ruihai,Han Ling,et al.Flood risk analysis of rubber dams group in the urban rivers of northwest China based on MIKE FLOOD model[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2016,14(6):113-119.
[5]Tiryaki F,Ahlatcioglu B.Fuzzy portfolio selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].Information Sciences,2009,179(12):53-69.
[6]Maeda H,Murakami S.The use of fuzzy decision-making method in a large-scale computer system choice problem[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1993,54(3):235-249.
[7]张鹏岩.基于引黄灌区土地变化的可持续性评价研究:以开封市黑柳灌区四乡为例[D].开封:河南大学,2013.Zhang Pengyan.Sustainability evaluation of land change based on the yellow river irrigation areas:a case study of four towns in the heigangkou and liuyuankou irrigation areas of Kaifeng[D].Kaifeng:Henan University,2013.
[8]孙博,肖汝诚.基于层次分析-模糊综合评价法的桥梁火灾风险评估体系[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(11):1 619-1 625.Sun Bo,Xiao Rucheng.Bridge fire risk assessment system based on analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2015,43(11):1 619-1 625.
[9]王君岩.运用层次分析法构建我国上市公司内部业绩评价体系[J].会计师,2016(3):37-38.
[10]刘佳琳.模糊统计决策理论基础上的大型工程项目风险评估方法研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2013.Liu Jialin.Study on risk analysis of large engineering project method based on fuzzy statistical decision theory[D].Changchun:Jilin U-niversity,2013.
[11]岑兆伍.堤坝裂缝抢险技术探析[J].沿海企业与科技,2011(6):96-97.