新疆西部一次大暴雨形成机理的数值模拟初步分析
|
摘要
2016年7月31日至8月1日新疆西部发生了一次罕见的大暴雨过程,利用常规观测资料、FY-2G卫星TBB(Black-Body Temperature)资料和NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°)再分析资料,在天气尺度环流背景和中尺度系统分析的基础上,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式对此次大暴雨过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟,利用模拟资料对大暴雨的形成进行了分析。结果表明:此次暴雨发生在稳定维持的"两脊一槽"环流形势下,巴尔喀什湖低槽、高空偏西急流、低空偏东急流和近地面辐合线是造成此次大暴雨过程的主要天气系统。中尺度云团沿近地面的辐合线在天山迎风坡附近不断生成,云团生成后,在向东北方向移动过程中,经过伊犁地区上空时,受天山地形抬升影响不断发展增强,造成伊犁地区出现持续性较强降水。天山迎风坡附近持续较长时间的辐合线是造成此次新疆西部大暴雨的直接中尺度系统,其生成与低层风场辐合、低空急流和地形均有关系。低层辐合引发的垂直运动在地形迎风坡附近加强,风场辐合及地形抬升共同导致强垂直运动发展并维持,类似于"列车效应",不断生成的尺度更小的对流系统沿着辐合线持续移过新疆西部的伊犁地区,是该次暴雨持续的重要原因。
Synoptic circulation pattern and mesoscale system associated with the torrential rain occurring in western Xinjiang from 31 July to 1 June 2016 are analyzed based on conventional observational data, TBB(Black-Body Temperature) data of FY-2 G satellite and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at 1.0°×1.0° spatial resolution. By using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, the torrential rain is simulated with high resolution, and the simulation results are used to make a preliminary diagnosis of this rainfall formation. The results are as follows. A stable circulation pattern of "two ridges one trough" was the background of the rainstorm. The Balkh Lake trough, the upper level westerly jet, the lower level easterly jet and the surface convergence line were the main weather systems conductive to the heavy rain. Mesoscale clouds continually formed in the windward slope of Tianshan, and moved to the northeast after their formation. Mesoscale convective clouds continually developed as the clouds passed over the Ili area, leading to strong continuous precipitation there. The mesoscale convergence line caused by continuous wind field convergences at the low-level near the windward slope of Tianshan was the system that directly caused this heavy rainstorm in western Xinjiang, which was related to low-level wind convergence, low-level jet and terrain effect. The vertical motion caused by the low-level convergence was further enhanced by the orographic lifting, and both the wind field convergence and terrain elevation contributed to the strong updraft development and maintenance. Similar to the "train effect", mesoscale systems that constantly moved across western Xinjiang along the convergence line also contributed to the persistence of the heavy rain.
Synoptic circulation pattern and mesoscale system associated with the torrential rain occurring in western Xinjiang from 31 July to 1 June 2016 are analyzed based on conventional observational data, TBB(Black-Body Temperature) data of FY-2 G satellite and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at 1.0°×1.0° spatial resolution. By using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, the torrential rain is simulated with high resolution, and the simulation results are used to make a preliminary diagnosis of this rainfall formation. The results are as follows. A stable circulation pattern of "two ridges one trough" was the background of the rainstorm. The Balkh Lake trough, the upper level westerly jet, the lower level easterly jet and the surface convergence line were the main weather systems conductive to the heavy rain. Mesoscale clouds continually formed in the windward slope of Tianshan, and moved to the northeast after their formation. Mesoscale convective clouds continually developed as the clouds passed over the Ili area, leading to strong continuous precipitation there. The mesoscale convergence line caused by continuous wind field convergences at the low-level near the windward slope of Tianshan was the system that directly caused this heavy rainstorm in western Xinjiang, which was related to low-level wind convergence, low-level jet and terrain effect. The vertical motion caused by the low-level convergence was further enhanced by the orographic lifting, and both the wind field convergence and terrain elevation contributed to the strong updraft development and maintenance. Similar to the "train effect", mesoscale systems that constantly moved across western Xinjiang along the convergence line also contributed to the persistence of the heavy rain.
引文
陈春艳,孔期,李如琦.2012.天山北坡一次特大暴雨过程诊断分析[J].气象,38(1):72-80.Chen Chunyan,Kong Qi,Li Ruqi.2012.Analysis of a major rainstorm in the north slope of Tianshan Mountain[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(1):72-80.
Chen Q,1982.The instability of the gravity-inertia wave and its relation to low-level jet and heavy rainfall[J].J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,60:1041-1057.
翟国庆,高坤.1997.江南地面热通量对江淮气旋暴雨影响的模拟研究[J].气象学报,55(1):55-65.Zhai Guoqing,Gao Kun.1997.The simulation study of the effects of upper stream surface thermal fluxes on Changjiang-Huaihe River basin cyclone accompanied with heavy rain[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),55(1):55-65,doi:10.11676/qxxb1997.006.
翟国庆,王智,何斌.2003.长江中下游梅雨期中小尺度涡旋族发生演变分析[J].气象学报,61(6):661-672.Zhai Guoqing,Wang Zhi,He Bin.2003.Formation and evolution analysis of the mesoscale vortex group in the middle and lower reaches during Meiyu of the Yangtze River[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),61(6):661-672,doi:10.11676/qxxb2003.067.
丁一汇.1993.1991年江淮流域持续性特大暴雨研究[M].北京:气象出版社,249-254.Ding Yihui.1993.Study of Strong Heavy Rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe River in 1991(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,249-254.
高守亭,孙建华,崔晓鹏.2008.暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断研究[J].大气科学,32(4):854-866.Gao Shouting,Sun Jianhua,Cui Xiaopeng.2008.Numerical simulation and dynamic analysis of mesoscale torrential rain systems[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(4):854-866,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.13.
高守亭,刘璐,李娜.2013.近几年中尺度动力学研究进展[J].大气科学,37(2):319-330.Gao Shouting,Liu Lu,Li Na.2013.Major advances in research on mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in recent years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(2):319-330,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12304.
Huang L,Luo Y L.2017.Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for South China during the presummer rainy season[J].J.Geophys.Res.,122(16):8494-8516,doi:10.1002/2017JD026512.
江远安,包斌,王旭.2001.南疆西部大降水天气过程的统计分析[J].新疆气象,24(5):19-20.Jiang Yuanan,Bao Bin,Wang Xu.2001.Analysis on heavy precipitation weather process in West Nanjiang[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology(in Chinese),24(5):19-20,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2001.05.006.
江志红,任伟,刘征宇,等.2013.基于拉格朗日方法的江淮梅雨水汽输送特征分析[J].气象学报,71(2):295-304.Jiang Zhihong,Ren Wei,Liu Zhengyu,et al.2013.Analysis of water vapor transport characteristics during the Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley using the Lagrangian method[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(2):295-304,doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.017.
Jiang Z N,Zhang D L,Xia R D,et al.2017.Diurnal variations of presummer rainfall over southern China[J].J.Climate,30(2):755-773,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0666.1.
孔期,郑永光,陈春艳.2011.乌鲁木齐7·17暴雨的天气尺度与中尺度特征[J].应用气象学报,22(1):12-22.Kong Qi,Zheng Yongguang,Chen Chunyan.2011.Synoptic scale and mesoscale characteristics of7·17 Urumqi heavy rainfall in 2007[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),22(1):12-22,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2011.01.002.
李娜,冉令坤,高守亭.2013.华东地区一次飑线过程的数值模拟与诊断分析[J].大气科学,37(3):595-608.Li Na,Ran Lingkun,Gao Shouting.2013.Numerical simulation and diagnosis study of a squall line in eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(3):595-608,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12007.
李如琦,李建刚,唐冶,等.2016.中亚低涡引发的两次南疆西部暴雨中尺度特征对比分析[J].干旱气象,34(2):297-304.Li Ruqi,Li Jiangang,Tang Ye,et al.2016.Comparison analysis on the mesoscale characteristics of two rainstorms processes caused by Central Asian vortex in the west of South Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),34(2):297-304,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-02-0297.
陆汉城.2000.中尺度天气原理和预报(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,1-3.Lu Hancheng.2000.Principle and Forecast of Mesoscale Weather(2nd ed)(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1-3.
Luo Y L,Chen Y R X.2015.Investigation of the predictability and physical mechanisms of an extreme-rainfall-producing mesoscale convective system along the Meiyu front in East China:An ensemble approach[J].J.Geophys.Res.,120(20):10593-10618,doi:10.1002/2015JD023584.
马淑红,席元伟.1997.新疆暴雨的若干规律性[J].气象学报,55(2):239-248.Ma Shuhong,Xi Yuanwei,1997.Some regularities of storm rainfall in Xinjiang,China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),55(2):239-248,doi:10.11676/qxxb1997.025.
倪允琪,周秀骥.2004.中国长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨形成机理以及监测与预测理论和方法研究[J].气象学报,62(5):647-662.Ni Yunqi,Zhou Xiuji.2004.Study for formation mechanism of heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front along the middle and downstream of Yangtze River and theories and methods of their detection and prediction[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),62(5):647-662,doi:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2004.05.011.
冉令坤,楚艳丽,高守亭.2009.Energy-Casimir方法在中尺度扰动稳定性研究中的应用[J].气象学报,67(4):530-539.Ran Lingkun,Chu Yanli,Gao Shouting.2009.Application of energy-Casimir method to the study of mesoscale disturbance stability[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(4):530-539.
冉令坤,李娜,高守亭.2013.华东地区强对流降水过程湿斜压涡度的诊断分析[J].大气科学,37(6):1261-1273.Ran Lingkun,Li Na,Gao Shouting.2013.Diagnostic analysis of precipitating convective process in East China with moist baroclinic vorticity parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(6):1261-1273,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12110.
冉令坤,齐彦斌,郝寿昌.2014.“7.21”暴雨过程动力因子分析和预报研究[J].大气科学,38(1):83-100.Ran Lingkun,Qi Yanbin,Hao Shouchang.2014.Analysis and forecasting of heavy rainfall case on 21July 2012 with dynamical parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),38(1):83-100,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12160.
沈杭锋,章元直,查贲,等.2015.梅雨锋上边界层中尺度扰动涡旋的个例研究[J].大气科学,39(5):1025-1037.Shen Hangfeng,Zhang Yuanzhi,Zha Ben,et al.2015.A case study of the mesoscale disturbance vortex in the boundary layer on the Meiyu front[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(5):1025-1037,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1410.14212.
孙建华,赵思雄,傅慎明,等.2013.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨的多尺度特征[J].大气科学,37(3):705-718.Sun Jianhua,Zhao Sixiong,Fu Shenming,et al.2013.Multi-scale characteristics of record heavy rainfall over Beijing area on July 21,2012[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(3):705-718,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12202.
孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等.2016.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,74(4):542-555.Sun Jianhua,Wang Huijie,Wei Jie,et al.2016.The sources and transportation of water vapor in persistent heavy rainfall events in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),74(4):542-555,doi:10.11676/qxxb2016.047.
孙继松.2005.北京地区夏季边界层急流的基本特征及形成机理研究[J].大气科学,29(3):445-452.Sun Jisong.2005.A study of the basic features and mechanism of boundary layer jet in Beijing area[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),29(3):445-452,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.03.12.
孙继松,何娜,郭锐,等.2013.多单体雷暴的形变与列车效应传播机制[J].大气科学,37(1):137-148.Sun Jisong,He Na,Guo Rui,et al.2013.The configuration change and train effect mechanism of multi-cell storms[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):137-148,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12015.
孙淑清,周玉淑.2007.近年来我国暴雨中尺度动力分析研究进展[J].大气科学,31(6):1171-1188.Sun Shuqing,Zhou Yushu.2007.Advances in meso-scale dynamical analysis of torrential rain systems in recent years in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(6):1171-1188,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.06.13.
陶诗言.1980.中国之暴雨[M].北京:科学出版社,225pp.Tao Shiyan.1980.Heavy Rainfall in China(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Science Press,225pp.
陶诗言,倪允琪,赵思雄,等.2001.1998年夏季中国暴雨的形成机理与预报研究[M].北京:气象出版社,184pp.Tao Shiyan,Ni Yunqi,Zhao Sixiong,et al.2001.The Study on Formation Mechanism and Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall in the Summer 1998(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,184pp.
陶祖钰,郑永光.2013.“7·21”北京特大暴雨的预报问题[J].暴雨灾害,32(3):193-201.Tao Zuyu,Zheng Yongguang.2013.Forecasting issues of the extreme heavy rain in Beijing on 21 July 2012[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(3):193-201,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.03.001.
王东海,杨帅.2009.一个干侵入参数及其应用[J].气象学报,67(4):522-529.Wang Donghai,Yang Shuai.2009.A dry intrusion parameter and its application[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(4):522-529.
王东海,夏茹娣,刘英.2011.2008年华南前汛期致洪暴雨特征及其对比分析[J].气象学报,69(1):137-148.Wang Donghai,Xia Rudi,Liu Ying.2011.A preliminary study of the flood-causing rainstorm during the first rainy season in South China in 2008[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),69(1):137-148.
王江,李如琦,黄艳,等.2015.2013年南疆西部一次罕见暴雨的成因[J].干旱气象,33(6):910-917.Wang Jiang,Li Ruqi,Huang Yan,et al.2015.Cause of a rare rainstorm in the west of southern Xinjiang in 2013[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),33(6):910-917,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-06-0910.
《新疆短期天气预报指导手册》编写组.1986.新疆短期天气预报指导手册[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.Compiling Group of Xinjiang Short Range Weather Forecast Manual.1986.Guide Handbook on Xinjiang Shortterm Weather Forecast(in Chinese)[M].ürümqi:Xinjiang People’s Press.
肖开提·多莱特,汤浩,李霞,等,1997.“96·7”新疆特大暴雨的水汽条件研究[J].新疆气象,20(1):8-11.XIAOKAITI Duolaite,Tang H,Li X,et al.1997.A study of moisture conditions of heavy rain in Xinjiang during the“96.7”[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology(in Chinese),20(1):8-11.
杨莲梅.2003.南亚高压突变引起的一次新疆暴雨天气研究[J].气象,29(8):21-25.Yang Lianmei.2003.Research on a case of heavy rain in Xinjiang from South Asia high abnormity[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),29(8):21-25,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.08.005.
杨莲梅,李霞,张广兴.2011.新疆夏季强降水研究若干进展及问题[J].气候与环境研究,16(2):188-198.Yang Lianmei,Li Xia,Zhang Guangxing.2011.Some advances and problems in the study of heavy rain in Xinjiang[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),16(2):188-198.
杨莲梅,张云惠,汤浩.2012.2007年7月新疆三次暴雨过程的水汽特征分析[J].高原气象,31(4):963-973.Yang Lianmei,Zhang Yunhui,Tang Hao.2012.Analyses on water vapor characteristics in three heavy rainstorm processes of Xinjiang in July 2007[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),31(4):963-973.
杨帅,高守亭.2007.三维散度方程及其对暴雨系统的诊断分析[J].大气科学,31(1):167-179.Yang Shuai,Gao Shouting.2007.Threedimensional divergence equation and its diagnosis analysis to storm rainfall system[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(1):167-179,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.01.17.
Yang S,Gao S T,Lu C G.2015.Investigation of the Mei-yu front using a new deformation frontogenesis function[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,32(5):635-647,doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4147-7.
Yang S,Zuo Q J,Gao S T.2017.Revisit to frozen-in property of vorticity[J].Chinese Physics B,26(8):599-606,doi:10.1088/1674-1056/26/8/089201.
杨霞,李云,赵逸舟,等.2014.新疆一次深秋局地短时大暴雨的成因分析[J].高原气象,33(1):162-170.Yang Xia,Li Yun,Zhao Yizhou,el at.2014.Analysis of a brief torrential rain event in autumn in Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),33(1):162-170,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00170.
俞小鼎.2012.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨成因分析[J].气象,38(11):1313-1329.Yu Xiaoding.2012.Investigation of Beijing extreme flooding event on 21 July 2012[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(11):1313-1329.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2016.中亚低涡背景下新疆连续短时强降水特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,10(4):67-73.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei.2016.Characteristics of persistent short-time heavy rainfall causing by Central Asian vortex in Xinjiang[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology(in Chinese),10(4):67-73,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2016.04.010.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2017a.南疆西部一次暴雨强对流过程的中尺度特征分析[J].干旱气象,35(3):475-484.Zeng Yong,Yang Liamei.2017a.Mesoscale characteristic analysis of a severe convective weather with torrential rain in the west of southern Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),35(3):475-484,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-03-0475.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2017b.南疆西部两次短时强降水天气中尺度特征对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,36(5):410-421.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei.2017b.Comparative analysis on mesoscale characteristics of two severe shorttime precipitation events in the west of southern Xinjiang[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),36(5):410-421,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.05.003.
曾勇,杨莲梅,张迎新.2018.中亚低涡背景下新疆阿克苏地区一次强对流天气形成的干侵入机制[J].干旱气象,36(1):34-43.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei,Zhang Yingxin.2018.Mechanism analysis of dry intrusion during a severe convective weather process under the background of Central Asian vortex in Aksu area of Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),36(1):34-43,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2018)-01-0034.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2018.新疆西部一次极端暴雨事件的成因分析[J].高原气象,37(5):1220-1232.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei.2018.Analysis on the causes of an extreme rainfall event in the west of Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),37(5):1220-1232,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00014.
张家宝,邓子风.1987.新疆降水概论[M].北京:气象出版社.Zhang Jiabao,Deng Zifeng.1987.A Generality of Rainfall in Xinjiang(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
张俊兰,李娜,秦贺,等.2016.新疆一次暴雨过程的观测分析及水汽特征[J].暴雨灾害,35(6):537-545.Zhang Junlan,Li Na,Qin He,et al.2016.The observational analysis and water vapor characteristics of a rainstorm in Xinjiang[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),35(6):537-545,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.006.
Zhang R H,Ni Y Q,Liu L P,et al.2011.South China heavy rainfall experiments(SCHeREX)[J].J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,89A:153-166,doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-A10.
张云惠,陈春艳,杨莲梅,等.2013.南疆西部一次罕见暴雨过程的成因分析[J].高原气象,32(1):191-200.Zhang Yunhui,Chen Chunyan,Yang Lianmei,et al.2013.Cause analysis on rare rainstorm in west of southern Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),32(1):191-200,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00019.
张云惠,李海燕,蔺喜禄,等.2015.南疆西部持续性暴雨环流背景及天气尺度的动力过程分析[J].气象,41(7):816-824.Zhang Yunhui,Li Haiyan,Lin Xilu,et al.2015.Analysis of continuous rainstorm circulation background and the dynamic process of synoptic-scale in west of southern Xinjiang[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),41(7):816-824,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.07.003.
张迎新,李宗涛,姚学祥.2015.京津冀“7·21”暴雨过程的中尺度分析[J].高原气象,34(1):202-209.Zhang Yingxin,Li Zongtao,Yao Xuexiang.2015.Analysis on mesoscale system of torrential rain occurring over North China on 21 July 2012[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),34(1):202-209,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00096.
张哲,周玉淑,邓国.2016.2013年7月31日京津冀飑线过程的数值模拟与结构分析[J].大气科学,40(3):528-540.Zhang Zhe,Zhou Yushu,Deng Guo.2016.Numerical simulation and structural analysis of a squall line that occurred over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China on 31 July 2013[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),40(3):528-540,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1507.15127.
赵庆云,傅朝,刘新伟,等.2017.西北东部暖区大暴雨中尺度系统演变特征[J].高原气象,36(3):697-704.Zhao Qingyun,Fu Zhao,Liu Xinwei,et al.2017.Characteristics of mesoscale system evolution of torrential rain in warm sector over Northwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),36(3):697-704,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00140.
赵思雄,陶祖钰,孙建华,等.2004.长江流域梅雨锋暴雨机理的分析研究[M].北京:气象出版社,282pp.Zhao Sixiong,Tao Zuyu,Sun Jianhua,et al.2004.Study on Mechanism of Formation and Development of Heavy Rainfalls on Meiyu Front in Yangtze River(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,282pp.
赵思雄.2011.近年来江淮流域致洪暴雨特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,34(1):1-5.Zhao Sixiong.2011.Characteristics analysis of flood-causing rainstorms over Changjiang-Huaihe River basin in recent years[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research(in Chinese),34(1):1-5,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9033.2011.01.001.
周玉淑,高守亭,邓国.2005.江淮流域2003年强梅雨期的水汽输送特征分析[J].大气科学,29(2):195-204.Zhou Yushu,Gao Shouting,Deng Guo.2005.A diagnostic study of water vapor transport and budget during heavy precipitation over the Changjiang River and the Huaihe River basins in 2003[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),29(2):195-204,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.02.04.
周玉淑,刘璐,朱科锋,等.2014.北京“7.21”特大暴雨过程中尺度系统的模拟及演变特征分析[J].大气科学,38(5):885-896.Zhou Yushu,Liu Lu,Zhu Kefeng,et al.2014.Simulation and evolution characteristics of mesoscale systems occurring in Beijing on 21 July 2012[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),38(5):885-896,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13185.
庄薇,刘黎平,王楠.2006.新疆地区一次对流性降水的三维中尺度风场研究[J].应用气象学报,17(4):444-451.Zhuang Wei,Liu Liping,Wang Nan.2006.Study on three-dimensional wind fields of mesoscale convective systems in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),17(4):444-451,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.04.008.
Chen Q,1982.The instability of the gravity-inertia wave and its relation to low-level jet and heavy rainfall[J].J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,60:1041-1057.
翟国庆,高坤.1997.江南地面热通量对江淮气旋暴雨影响的模拟研究[J].气象学报,55(1):55-65.Zhai Guoqing,Gao Kun.1997.The simulation study of the effects of upper stream surface thermal fluxes on Changjiang-Huaihe River basin cyclone accompanied with heavy rain[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),55(1):55-65,doi:10.11676/qxxb1997.006.
翟国庆,王智,何斌.2003.长江中下游梅雨期中小尺度涡旋族发生演变分析[J].气象学报,61(6):661-672.Zhai Guoqing,Wang Zhi,He Bin.2003.Formation and evolution analysis of the mesoscale vortex group in the middle and lower reaches during Meiyu of the Yangtze River[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),61(6):661-672,doi:10.11676/qxxb2003.067.
丁一汇.1993.1991年江淮流域持续性特大暴雨研究[M].北京:气象出版社,249-254.Ding Yihui.1993.Study of Strong Heavy Rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe River in 1991(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,249-254.
高守亭,孙建华,崔晓鹏.2008.暴雨中尺度系统数值模拟与动力诊断研究[J].大气科学,32(4):854-866.Gao Shouting,Sun Jianhua,Cui Xiaopeng.2008.Numerical simulation and dynamic analysis of mesoscale torrential rain systems[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(4):854-866,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.13.
高守亭,刘璐,李娜.2013.近几年中尺度动力学研究进展[J].大气科学,37(2):319-330.Gao Shouting,Liu Lu,Li Na.2013.Major advances in research on mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in recent years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(2):319-330,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12304.
Huang L,Luo Y L.2017.Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for South China during the presummer rainy season[J].J.Geophys.Res.,122(16):8494-8516,doi:10.1002/2017JD026512.
江远安,包斌,王旭.2001.南疆西部大降水天气过程的统计分析[J].新疆气象,24(5):19-20.Jiang Yuanan,Bao Bin,Wang Xu.2001.Analysis on heavy precipitation weather process in West Nanjiang[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology(in Chinese),24(5):19-20,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2001.05.006.
江志红,任伟,刘征宇,等.2013.基于拉格朗日方法的江淮梅雨水汽输送特征分析[J].气象学报,71(2):295-304.Jiang Zhihong,Ren Wei,Liu Zhengyu,et al.2013.Analysis of water vapor transport characteristics during the Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley using the Lagrangian method[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(2):295-304,doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.017.
Jiang Z N,Zhang D L,Xia R D,et al.2017.Diurnal variations of presummer rainfall over southern China[J].J.Climate,30(2):755-773,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0666.1.
孔期,郑永光,陈春艳.2011.乌鲁木齐7·17暴雨的天气尺度与中尺度特征[J].应用气象学报,22(1):12-22.Kong Qi,Zheng Yongguang,Chen Chunyan.2011.Synoptic scale and mesoscale characteristics of7·17 Urumqi heavy rainfall in 2007[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),22(1):12-22,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2011.01.002.
李娜,冉令坤,高守亭.2013.华东地区一次飑线过程的数值模拟与诊断分析[J].大气科学,37(3):595-608.Li Na,Ran Lingkun,Gao Shouting.2013.Numerical simulation and diagnosis study of a squall line in eastern China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(3):595-608,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12007.
李如琦,李建刚,唐冶,等.2016.中亚低涡引发的两次南疆西部暴雨中尺度特征对比分析[J].干旱气象,34(2):297-304.Li Ruqi,Li Jiangang,Tang Ye,et al.2016.Comparison analysis on the mesoscale characteristics of two rainstorms processes caused by Central Asian vortex in the west of South Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),34(2):297-304,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-02-0297.
陆汉城.2000.中尺度天气原理和预报(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,1-3.Lu Hancheng.2000.Principle and Forecast of Mesoscale Weather(2nd ed)(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1-3.
Luo Y L,Chen Y R X.2015.Investigation of the predictability and physical mechanisms of an extreme-rainfall-producing mesoscale convective system along the Meiyu front in East China:An ensemble approach[J].J.Geophys.Res.,120(20):10593-10618,doi:10.1002/2015JD023584.
马淑红,席元伟.1997.新疆暴雨的若干规律性[J].气象学报,55(2):239-248.Ma Shuhong,Xi Yuanwei,1997.Some regularities of storm rainfall in Xinjiang,China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),55(2):239-248,doi:10.11676/qxxb1997.025.
倪允琪,周秀骥.2004.中国长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨形成机理以及监测与预测理论和方法研究[J].气象学报,62(5):647-662.Ni Yunqi,Zhou Xiuji.2004.Study for formation mechanism of heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front along the middle and downstream of Yangtze River and theories and methods of their detection and prediction[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),62(5):647-662,doi:10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2004.05.011.
冉令坤,楚艳丽,高守亭.2009.Energy-Casimir方法在中尺度扰动稳定性研究中的应用[J].气象学报,67(4):530-539.Ran Lingkun,Chu Yanli,Gao Shouting.2009.Application of energy-Casimir method to the study of mesoscale disturbance stability[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(4):530-539.
冉令坤,李娜,高守亭.2013.华东地区强对流降水过程湿斜压涡度的诊断分析[J].大气科学,37(6):1261-1273.Ran Lingkun,Li Na,Gao Shouting.2013.Diagnostic analysis of precipitating convective process in East China with moist baroclinic vorticity parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(6):1261-1273,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12110.
冉令坤,齐彦斌,郝寿昌.2014.“7.21”暴雨过程动力因子分析和预报研究[J].大气科学,38(1):83-100.Ran Lingkun,Qi Yanbin,Hao Shouchang.2014.Analysis and forecasting of heavy rainfall case on 21July 2012 with dynamical parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),38(1):83-100,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12160.
沈杭锋,章元直,查贲,等.2015.梅雨锋上边界层中尺度扰动涡旋的个例研究[J].大气科学,39(5):1025-1037.Shen Hangfeng,Zhang Yuanzhi,Zha Ben,et al.2015.A case study of the mesoscale disturbance vortex in the boundary layer on the Meiyu front[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),39(5):1025-1037,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1410.14212.
孙建华,赵思雄,傅慎明,等.2013.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨的多尺度特征[J].大气科学,37(3):705-718.Sun Jianhua,Zhao Sixiong,Fu Shenming,et al.2013.Multi-scale characteristics of record heavy rainfall over Beijing area on July 21,2012[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(3):705-718,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12202.
孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等.2016.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,74(4):542-555.Sun Jianhua,Wang Huijie,Wei Jie,et al.2016.The sources and transportation of water vapor in persistent heavy rainfall events in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),74(4):542-555,doi:10.11676/qxxb2016.047.
孙继松.2005.北京地区夏季边界层急流的基本特征及形成机理研究[J].大气科学,29(3):445-452.Sun Jisong.2005.A study of the basic features and mechanism of boundary layer jet in Beijing area[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),29(3):445-452,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.03.12.
孙继松,何娜,郭锐,等.2013.多单体雷暴的形变与列车效应传播机制[J].大气科学,37(1):137-148.Sun Jisong,He Na,Guo Rui,et al.2013.The configuration change and train effect mechanism of multi-cell storms[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):137-148,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12015.
孙淑清,周玉淑.2007.近年来我国暴雨中尺度动力分析研究进展[J].大气科学,31(6):1171-1188.Sun Shuqing,Zhou Yushu.2007.Advances in meso-scale dynamical analysis of torrential rain systems in recent years in China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(6):1171-1188,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.06.13.
陶诗言.1980.中国之暴雨[M].北京:科学出版社,225pp.Tao Shiyan.1980.Heavy Rainfall in China(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:Science Press,225pp.
陶诗言,倪允琪,赵思雄,等.2001.1998年夏季中国暴雨的形成机理与预报研究[M].北京:气象出版社,184pp.Tao Shiyan,Ni Yunqi,Zhao Sixiong,et al.2001.The Study on Formation Mechanism and Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall in the Summer 1998(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,184pp.
陶祖钰,郑永光.2013.“7·21”北京特大暴雨的预报问题[J].暴雨灾害,32(3):193-201.Tao Zuyu,Zheng Yongguang.2013.Forecasting issues of the extreme heavy rain in Beijing on 21 July 2012[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(3):193-201,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.03.001.
王东海,杨帅.2009.一个干侵入参数及其应用[J].气象学报,67(4):522-529.Wang Donghai,Yang Shuai.2009.A dry intrusion parameter and its application[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(4):522-529.
王东海,夏茹娣,刘英.2011.2008年华南前汛期致洪暴雨特征及其对比分析[J].气象学报,69(1):137-148.Wang Donghai,Xia Rudi,Liu Ying.2011.A preliminary study of the flood-causing rainstorm during the first rainy season in South China in 2008[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),69(1):137-148.
王江,李如琦,黄艳,等.2015.2013年南疆西部一次罕见暴雨的成因[J].干旱气象,33(6):910-917.Wang Jiang,Li Ruqi,Huang Yan,et al.2015.Cause of a rare rainstorm in the west of southern Xinjiang in 2013[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),33(6):910-917,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-06-0910.
《新疆短期天气预报指导手册》编写组.1986.新疆短期天气预报指导手册[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.Compiling Group of Xinjiang Short Range Weather Forecast Manual.1986.Guide Handbook on Xinjiang Shortterm Weather Forecast(in Chinese)[M].ürümqi:Xinjiang People’s Press.
肖开提·多莱特,汤浩,李霞,等,1997.“96·7”新疆特大暴雨的水汽条件研究[J].新疆气象,20(1):8-11.XIAOKAITI Duolaite,Tang H,Li X,et al.1997.A study of moisture conditions of heavy rain in Xinjiang during the“96.7”[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology(in Chinese),20(1):8-11.
杨莲梅.2003.南亚高压突变引起的一次新疆暴雨天气研究[J].气象,29(8):21-25.Yang Lianmei.2003.Research on a case of heavy rain in Xinjiang from South Asia high abnormity[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),29(8):21-25,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0526.2003.08.005.
杨莲梅,李霞,张广兴.2011.新疆夏季强降水研究若干进展及问题[J].气候与环境研究,16(2):188-198.Yang Lianmei,Li Xia,Zhang Guangxing.2011.Some advances and problems in the study of heavy rain in Xinjiang[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),16(2):188-198.
杨莲梅,张云惠,汤浩.2012.2007年7月新疆三次暴雨过程的水汽特征分析[J].高原气象,31(4):963-973.Yang Lianmei,Zhang Yunhui,Tang Hao.2012.Analyses on water vapor characteristics in three heavy rainstorm processes of Xinjiang in July 2007[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),31(4):963-973.
杨帅,高守亭.2007.三维散度方程及其对暴雨系统的诊断分析[J].大气科学,31(1):167-179.Yang Shuai,Gao Shouting.2007.Threedimensional divergence equation and its diagnosis analysis to storm rainfall system[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(1):167-179,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2007.01.17.
Yang S,Gao S T,Lu C G.2015.Investigation of the Mei-yu front using a new deformation frontogenesis function[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,32(5):635-647,doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4147-7.
Yang S,Zuo Q J,Gao S T.2017.Revisit to frozen-in property of vorticity[J].Chinese Physics B,26(8):599-606,doi:10.1088/1674-1056/26/8/089201.
杨霞,李云,赵逸舟,等.2014.新疆一次深秋局地短时大暴雨的成因分析[J].高原气象,33(1):162-170.Yang Xia,Li Yun,Zhao Yizhou,el at.2014.Analysis of a brief torrential rain event in autumn in Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),33(1):162-170,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00170.
俞小鼎.2012.2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨成因分析[J].气象,38(11):1313-1329.Yu Xiaoding.2012.Investigation of Beijing extreme flooding event on 21 July 2012[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(11):1313-1329.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2016.中亚低涡背景下新疆连续短时强降水特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,10(4):67-73.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei.2016.Characteristics of persistent short-time heavy rainfall causing by Central Asian vortex in Xinjiang[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology(in Chinese),10(4):67-73,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2016.04.010.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2017a.南疆西部一次暴雨强对流过程的中尺度特征分析[J].干旱气象,35(3):475-484.Zeng Yong,Yang Liamei.2017a.Mesoscale characteristic analysis of a severe convective weather with torrential rain in the west of southern Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),35(3):475-484,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-03-0475.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2017b.南疆西部两次短时强降水天气中尺度特征对比分析[J].暴雨灾害,36(5):410-421.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei.2017b.Comparative analysis on mesoscale characteristics of two severe shorttime precipitation events in the west of southern Xinjiang[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),36(5):410-421,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.05.003.
曾勇,杨莲梅,张迎新.2018.中亚低涡背景下新疆阿克苏地区一次强对流天气形成的干侵入机制[J].干旱气象,36(1):34-43.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei,Zhang Yingxin.2018.Mechanism analysis of dry intrusion during a severe convective weather process under the background of Central Asian vortex in Aksu area of Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),36(1):34-43,doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2018)-01-0034.
曾勇,杨莲梅.2018.新疆西部一次极端暴雨事件的成因分析[J].高原气象,37(5):1220-1232.Zeng Yong,Yang Lianmei.2018.Analysis on the causes of an extreme rainfall event in the west of Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),37(5):1220-1232,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00014.
张家宝,邓子风.1987.新疆降水概论[M].北京:气象出版社.Zhang Jiabao,Deng Zifeng.1987.A Generality of Rainfall in Xinjiang(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.
张俊兰,李娜,秦贺,等.2016.新疆一次暴雨过程的观测分析及水汽特征[J].暴雨灾害,35(6):537-545.Zhang Junlan,Li Na,Qin He,et al.2016.The observational analysis and water vapor characteristics of a rainstorm in Xinjiang[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),35(6):537-545,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.006.
Zhang R H,Ni Y Q,Liu L P,et al.2011.South China heavy rainfall experiments(SCHeREX)[J].J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,89A:153-166,doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-A10.
张云惠,陈春艳,杨莲梅,等.2013.南疆西部一次罕见暴雨过程的成因分析[J].高原气象,32(1):191-200.Zhang Yunhui,Chen Chunyan,Yang Lianmei,et al.2013.Cause analysis on rare rainstorm in west of southern Xinjiang[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),32(1):191-200,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00019.
张云惠,李海燕,蔺喜禄,等.2015.南疆西部持续性暴雨环流背景及天气尺度的动力过程分析[J].气象,41(7):816-824.Zhang Yunhui,Li Haiyan,Lin Xilu,et al.2015.Analysis of continuous rainstorm circulation background and the dynamic process of synoptic-scale in west of southern Xinjiang[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),41(7):816-824,doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.07.003.
张迎新,李宗涛,姚学祥.2015.京津冀“7·21”暴雨过程的中尺度分析[J].高原气象,34(1):202-209.Zhang Yingxin,Li Zongtao,Yao Xuexiang.2015.Analysis on mesoscale system of torrential rain occurring over North China on 21 July 2012[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),34(1):202-209,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00096.
张哲,周玉淑,邓国.2016.2013年7月31日京津冀飑线过程的数值模拟与结构分析[J].大气科学,40(3):528-540.Zhang Zhe,Zhou Yushu,Deng Guo.2016.Numerical simulation and structural analysis of a squall line that occurred over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China on 31 July 2013[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),40(3):528-540,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1507.15127.
赵庆云,傅朝,刘新伟,等.2017.西北东部暖区大暴雨中尺度系统演变特征[J].高原气象,36(3):697-704.Zhao Qingyun,Fu Zhao,Liu Xinwei,et al.2017.Characteristics of mesoscale system evolution of torrential rain in warm sector over Northwest China[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),36(3):697-704,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00140.
赵思雄,陶祖钰,孙建华,等.2004.长江流域梅雨锋暴雨机理的分析研究[M].北京:气象出版社,282pp.Zhao Sixiong,Tao Zuyu,Sun Jianhua,et al.2004.Study on Mechanism of Formation and Development of Heavy Rainfalls on Meiyu Front in Yangtze River(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,282pp.
赵思雄.2011.近年来江淮流域致洪暴雨特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,34(1):1-5.Zhao Sixiong.2011.Characteristics analysis of flood-causing rainstorms over Changjiang-Huaihe River basin in recent years[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research(in Chinese),34(1):1-5,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-9033.2011.01.001.
周玉淑,高守亭,邓国.2005.江淮流域2003年强梅雨期的水汽输送特征分析[J].大气科学,29(2):195-204.Zhou Yushu,Gao Shouting,Deng Guo.2005.A diagnostic study of water vapor transport and budget during heavy precipitation over the Changjiang River and the Huaihe River basins in 2003[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),29(2):195-204,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2005.02.04.
周玉淑,刘璐,朱科锋,等.2014.北京“7.21”特大暴雨过程中尺度系统的模拟及演变特征分析[J].大气科学,38(5):885-896.Zhou Yushu,Liu Lu,Zhu Kefeng,et al.2014.Simulation and evolution characteristics of mesoscale systems occurring in Beijing on 21 July 2012[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),38(5):885-896,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13185.
庄薇,刘黎平,王楠.2006.新疆地区一次对流性降水的三维中尺度风场研究[J].应用气象学报,17(4):444-451.Zhuang Wei,Liu Liping,Wang Nan.2006.Study on three-dimensional wind fields of mesoscale convective systems in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),17(4):444-451,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.04.008.