伊犁州资源禀赋与农牧业经济耦合关系及时空分敛研究
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摘要
[目的]为促进伊犁州农牧业经济与资源禀赋的协调发展,构建农牧业经济与资源禀赋系统综合评价指标体系,从多角度对伊犁州农牧业资源禀赋与农牧经济耦合关系及时空分敛特征进行探究。[方法]通过引入耦合协调模型及ArcGIS空间分析软件测度资源禀赋与农牧业经济耦合协调值并进行空间显化;借助GeoDA分析软件对其耦合协调时空分敛状况进行分析。[结果](1)伊犁州农牧业经济与资源禀赋耦合协调水平整体较低但呈上升趋势;各地县耦合协调类型表现出三级梯次特征;(2)沙湾县、伊宁县等地区由于经济优势与资源丰富条件存在耦合协调水平溢出效应;(3)部分地区耦合协调水平空间分敛存在涟漪效应,如额敏县农牧业经济与资源禀赋耦合协调水平较高,但其邻近地区哈巴河县、托里县、和县和吉木乃县耦合协调水平较低;(4)部分地区耦合协调水平空间分敛存在规模效应,如沙湾县、乌苏市和新源县形成伊犁州东部农牧业规模效应。[结论]伊犁州农牧业发展中,应重点强调发挥市场在促进资源禀赋合理利用和农牧业经济结构升级中的决定性作用,为实现两者的高度耦合创造良好的环境。
In order to promote the coordinated development of the agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment in Yili prefecture, the comprehensive evaluation index system of agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment system is constructed, and the coupling relationship between agriculture and animal husbandry resources endowment in Yili is explored and the characteristics of spatial-temporal convergence between them is analyzed from multi-perspectives. By introducing the coupling coordination model and ArcGIS spatial analysis software, the coupling value of resource endowment and agriculture and animal husbandry economy was measured and spatialized. The geo-analysis software was used to analyze the spatial-temporal convergence of coupling and coordination. The results showed that the coupling and coordination level of agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment in Yili prefecture was lower but increasing. The coupling coordination type of each county showed three-step characteristics. Shawan county, Yining county and other regions had coupling and coordination level spillover effects due to economic advantages and resource-rich conditions; In some parts of the region, there was a ripple effect in the coordination and coordination of horizontal space. For example, the coupling and coordination of agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment in Emin County was relatively high, but the neighboring areas were coupled and coordinated in Habahe county, Toli county, He county and Jimuna county. In some areas, there was a scale effect in the coordination and coordination of horizontal space, such as Shawan county, Wusu city and Xinyuan county, which formed the scale effect of agriculture and animal husbandry in the eastern part of Yili Prefecture. In the development of agriculture and animal husbandry in Yili prefecture, the emphasis should be placed on giving play to the decisive role of the market in promoting the rational use of resource endowments and the upgrading of the economic structure of agriculture and animal husbandry, and creating a good environment for achieving a high degree of coupling between the two.
In order to promote the coordinated development of the agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment in Yili prefecture, the comprehensive evaluation index system of agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment system is constructed, and the coupling relationship between agriculture and animal husbandry resources endowment in Yili is explored and the characteristics of spatial-temporal convergence between them is analyzed from multi-perspectives. By introducing the coupling coordination model and ArcGIS spatial analysis software, the coupling value of resource endowment and agriculture and animal husbandry economy was measured and spatialized. The geo-analysis software was used to analyze the spatial-temporal convergence of coupling and coordination. The results showed that the coupling and coordination level of agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment in Yili prefecture was lower but increasing. The coupling coordination type of each county showed three-step characteristics. Shawan county, Yining county and other regions had coupling and coordination level spillover effects due to economic advantages and resource-rich conditions; In some parts of the region, there was a ripple effect in the coordination and coordination of horizontal space. For example, the coupling and coordination of agriculture and animal husbandry economy and resource endowment in Emin County was relatively high, but the neighboring areas were coupled and coordinated in Habahe county, Toli county, He county and Jimuna county. In some areas, there was a scale effect in the coordination and coordination of horizontal space, such as Shawan county, Wusu city and Xinyuan county, which formed the scale effect of agriculture and animal husbandry in the eastern part of Yili Prefecture. In the development of agriculture and animal husbandry in Yili prefecture, the emphasis should be placed on giving play to the decisive role of the market in promoting the rational use of resource endowments and the upgrading of the economic structure of agriculture and animal husbandry, and creating a good environment for achieving a high degree of coupling between the two.
引文
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[2] 黎振强,杨新荣.生态农业投入产出的经济利益诱导机制研究.经济问题,2014(12):104-110.
[3] 罗广元,王桂玲.区域农业经济结构的动态对比分析及优势产业的发展研究.干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(3):225-231,267.
[4] 刘后平,何宇飞.农业内部产业结构调整的经济增长效应分析——以四川省为例.江苏农业科学,2017,45(19):76-80.
[5] 叶得明,杨婕妤.石羊河流域农业经济和生态环境协调发展研究.干旱区地理,2013,36(1):76-83.
[6] 骆世明.农业生态转型态势与中国生态农业建设路径.中国生态农业学,2017,25(1):1-7.
[7] 关明文.农业经济可持续发展问题分析.农业经济,2013(2):70-71.
[8] 刘敦虎,赖廷谦.农业科技投入与农业经济增长的动态关联关系研究.农村经济,2017(10):118-122.
[9] 陈红玲.农业科技资源与农业经济发展的关系研究.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(9):220-224.
[10] 魏金义,祁春节.农业技术进步与要素禀赋的耦合协调度测算.中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(1):90-96.
[11] 杨传喜,张俊飚.农业科技资源与农业经济发展关系实证.中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(3):113-118.
[12] 田童,刘新平.塔里木河流域农牧资源与农牧经济耦合关系.中国沙漠,2015,35(5):1382-1387.
[13] 侯智惠,逄焕成.中国北方农牧交错带农业资源可持续利用水平演变及趋势预测——以乌兰察布市为例.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(4):49-55.
[14] 盖美,连冬.辽宁省经济与生态环境系统耦合发展分析.地域研究与开发,2013(5):88-94.
[15] 冯霞.新疆城镇化与生态环境耦合关系分析.地域研究与开发,2016(3):123-127.
[16] 胡彪,张旭东.京津冀地区城市化效率与生态效率时空耦合关系研究.干旱区资源与环境,2017(8):56-62.
[17] 宋庆伟,王荣成.我国县域农业与乡村经济发展的时空特征研究.干旱区资源与环境,2016(10):13-18.
[18] 高鸣,宋洪远.粮食生产技术效率的空间收敛及功能区差异.管理世界,2014(7):83-92.
[19] 黄倩.区域特困地区土地资源空间优化与协调发展战略研究.农业经济,2016(6):95-97.