降水的统计降尺度预报及其空间相关性和时间连续性重建
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摘要
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、日本气象厅(JMA)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)以及英国气象局(UKMO)四个中心1~7 d日累计降水量集合预报资料,以中国降水融合产品作为"观测值",对我国地面降水量进行统计降尺度预报,并对预报降水的空间相关性和时间连续性进行重建。对降水量进行分级后,建立各个量级的回归方程进行统计降尺度预报。此外,还利用Schaake Shuffle方法重建丢失的空间相关性和时间连续性。结果表明,分级回归比未分级回归后的预报结果相关系数更高,预报误差更小,更接近观测值。Schaake Shuffle方法可以有效地改进降水预报的空间相关性和时间连续性,使之更接近实况观测,集合成员间的相关性也更好。
Based on the ensemble forecasts of 1—7 day daily accumulated precipitation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts( ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency( JMA),National Centers for Environmental Prediction( NCEP) and UK Met Office( UKMO),with the hourly merged precipitation product over China as the observed data, the forecast of daily precipitation in China by means of statistical downscaling and the reconstruction of spatial and temporal correlation of the precipitation forecast were conducted. The statistical downscaling based on different categories of the rainfall was applied to improve the precipitation forecast. The Schaake Shuffle was used to reconstruct the spatial correlation and temporal persistence of the precipitation forecast.The results show that the forecasts after the regression based on the different categories of the rainfall are more accurate than the ones after the regression.Classifying the rainfall into different categories was not considered,due to the fact that the anomaly correlation coefficient becomes larger and the root-mean-square error becomes smaller.The spatial and temporal correlations after the reconstruction are quite close to the observed ones.
Based on the ensemble forecasts of 1—7 day daily accumulated precipitation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts( ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency( JMA),National Centers for Environmental Prediction( NCEP) and UK Met Office( UKMO),with the hourly merged precipitation product over China as the observed data, the forecast of daily precipitation in China by means of statistical downscaling and the reconstruction of spatial and temporal correlation of the precipitation forecast were conducted. The statistical downscaling based on different categories of the rainfall was applied to improve the precipitation forecast. The Schaake Shuffle was used to reconstruct the spatial correlation and temporal persistence of the precipitation forecast.The results show that the forecasts after the regression based on the different categories of the rainfall are more accurate than the ones after the regression.Classifying the rainfall into different categories was not considered,due to the fact that the anomaly correlation coefficient becomes larger and the root-mean-square error becomes smaller.The spatial and temporal correlations after the reconstruction are quite close to the observed ones.
引文
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徐静,叶爱中,毛玉娜,等,2014 .水文集合预报研究与应用综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,12(1):82-87.Xu J,Ye A Z,Mao Y N,et al.,2014.Review of research and application of hydrologic ensemble forecast[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,12(1):82-87.(in Chinese).
徐振亚,任福民,杨修群,等,2012 .日最高温度统计降尺度方法的比较研究[J].气象科学,32 (4):395-402.Xu Z Y,Ren F M,Yang X Q,et al.,2012.A comparison study on statistical downscaling methods in daily maximum temperatures[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,32(4):395 -402.(in Chinese).
杨赤,严中伟,邵月红,2009.基于Tweedie分布的日降水量统计降尺度模型[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),45(5):531-536.Yang C,Yan Z W,Shao Y H,2009.Statistical downscaling model for daily precipitation based on Tweedie distribution[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),45 (5):531-536.(in Chinese).
张蒙蒙,江志红,2013.我国高分辨率降水融合资料的适用性评估[J].气候与环境研究,18(4):461-471.Zhang M M,Jiang Z H,2013.Analyses of high-resolution merged precipitation products over China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,18(4):461-471.(in Chinese).
智协飞,陈雯,2010.THORPEX国际科学研究新进展[J].大气科学学报,33(4)504-511.Zhi X F,Chen W,2010.New achievements of international atmospheric research in THORPEX program[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(4):504-511.(in Chinese).
智协飞,王姝苏,周红梅,等,2016.我国地面降水的分级回归统计降尺度预报研究[J].大气科学学报,39(3):329-338.Zhi X F,Wang S S,Zhou H M,et al.,2016.Statistical downscaling of precipitation forecasting using categorized rainfall regression[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(3):329-338 .(in Chinese).
Chandler R E,Wheater H S,2002.Analysis of rainfall variability using generalized linear models:A case study from the west of Ireland[J].Water Resour Res,38(10):1192.
陈晓龙,智协飞,2014 .基于TIGGE资料的北半球地面气温预报的统计降尺度研究[J].大气科学学报,37(3):268-275.Chen X L,Zhi X F,2014.A statistical downscaling study on the surface temperature forecast in the Northern Hemisphere using the TIGGE data[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37 (3):268-275.(in Chinese).
Clark M,Hay L,2004.Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of stream flow[J].Hydrometeor,5(1)15-32.
Clark M,Gangopadhy S,Hay L,et al.,2004.The Schaake shuffle:A method for reconstructing space-time variability in forecasted precipitation and temperature fields[J].Journal of hydrometeorology,5(1):243-262.
范丽军,符淙斌,陈德亮,2005 .统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,20(3):320-329.Fan L J,Fu C B,Chen D L,2005.Review on creating future climate change scenarios by statistical downscaling techniques[J].Advances In Earth Science,20(3):320 -329.(in Chinese).
范丽军,符淙斌,陈德亮,2007 .统计降尺度法对华北地区未来区域气温变化情景的预估[J].大气科学,31(5):887-897.Fan L J,Fu C B,Chen D L,2007.Estimation of local temperature change scenarios in North China using statistical downscaling method[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,31(5):887 -897.(in Chinese).
Fealy R,Sweeney J,2007.Statistical downscaling of precipitation for a selection of sites in Ireland employing a generalized linear modeling approach[J].Int J Climatol,27(15):2083-2094.
龚凤乾,1987 .等级相关系数公式的证明应用及统计显著性检验[J].现代财经(1):33-36.Gong F Q,1987.Proof application and statistical significance test of rank correlation coefficient formula[J].Modern Finance&Economics(1):33-36.(in Chinese).
黄刚,张立凤,王秋良,等,2012 .基于集合预报产品的降尺度降水预报试验[J].气象科学,31(5):508-514.Huang G,Zhang L F,Wang Q L,et al.,2012.Precipitation forecasting experiments based on the products of ensemble forecast by using downscaling method[J].J Meteor Sci,31(5):508 -514.(in Chinese).
刘永和,张万昌,朱时良,等,2010.基于广义线性模型和NCEP资料的降水随机发生器[J].大气科学,34(3):599-610.Liu Y H,Zhang W C,Zhu S L,et al.,2010.A stochastic precipitation generator based on generalized linear models and NCEP reanalysis data[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,34(3):599-610.(in Chinese).
Schaake J,Franz K,Bradley A,et al.,2006.HEPEX:The hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,88(10):1541-1547.
沈艳,潘旸,宇婧婧,等,2013.中国区域小时降水量融合产品的质量评估[J].大气科学学报,36(1):37-46.Shen Y,Pan Y,Yu J J,et al.,2013.Quality assessment of hourly merged precipitation product over China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(1):37-46.(in Chinese).
王海霞,智协飞,2015 .基于TIGGE多模式降水量预报的统计降尺度研究[J].气象科学,35(4):430-437.Wang H X,Zhi X F,2015.Statistical downscaling research of precipitation forecast based on TIGGE multimodel ensemble[J].J Meteor Sci,35(4):430-437.(in Chinese).
王亚男,智协飞,2012 .多模式降水集合预报的统计降尺度研究[J].暴雨灾害,31(1):1-7.Wang Y N,Zhi X F,2012.Statistical downscaling of the precipitation multimodel ensemble forecast[J].Torrential Rain Disaster,31(1):1-7.(in Chinese).
徐静,叶爱中,毛玉娜,等,2014 .水文集合预报研究与应用综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,12(1):82-87.Xu J,Ye A Z,Mao Y N,et al.,2014.Review of research and application of hydrologic ensemble forecast[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,12(1):82-87.(in Chinese).
徐振亚,任福民,杨修群,等,2012 .日最高温度统计降尺度方法的比较研究[J].气象科学,32 (4):395-402.Xu Z Y,Ren F M,Yang X Q,et al.,2012.A comparison study on statistical downscaling methods in daily maximum temperatures[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,32(4):395 -402.(in Chinese).
杨赤,严中伟,邵月红,2009.基于Tweedie分布的日降水量统计降尺度模型[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),45(5):531-536.Yang C,Yan Z W,Shao Y H,2009.Statistical downscaling model for daily precipitation based on Tweedie distribution[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),45 (5):531-536.(in Chinese).
张蒙蒙,江志红,2013.我国高分辨率降水融合资料的适用性评估[J].气候与环境研究,18(4):461-471.Zhang M M,Jiang Z H,2013.Analyses of high-resolution merged precipitation products over China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,18(4):461-471.(in Chinese).
智协飞,陈雯,2010.THORPEX国际科学研究新进展[J].大气科学学报,33(4)504-511.Zhi X F,Chen W,2010.New achievements of international atmospheric research in THORPEX program[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(4):504-511.(in Chinese).
智协飞,王姝苏,周红梅,等,2016.我国地面降水的分级回归统计降尺度预报研究[J].大气科学学报,39(3):329-338.Zhi X F,Wang S S,Zhou H M,et al.,2016.Statistical downscaling of precipitation forecasting using categorized rainfall regression[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(3):329-338 .(in Chinese).