规避“中等收入陷阱”:经验特征及中国应对之策
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摘要
"中等收入陷阱"指一国(经济体)达到中等收入水平以后,因受制于各方面因素(经济、政治和社会发展),其经济发展出现停滞、倒退或较长时期徘徊于中等收入水平区间,难以摆脱由中等收入状态向高收入阶段跨越,为当代世界客观存在的一种现象;阿根廷和智利是陷入和超越"中等收入陷阱"的国家中的两个典型,其经验和教训值得中国借鉴;中国要跨越"中等收入陷阱"应加强供给侧结构性改革,转变经济发展方式,提高全要素生产和技术创新能力,促进收入分配制度调整,推进金融市场发展和金融审慎监管,充分利用和保持"一带一路"经济合作和发展的活力。
This paper analyzes the characteristics of major middle-income economies in which economic,political and social conditions fail to favor their any further growth,so that they fall into middle-income trap of depression or fluctuation.Argentina and Chile are typical of middle-income traps.Moreover,this paper attempts to provide with experiences for China to advance its economy over the middle-income traps through restructuring reforms,increasing total factor productivity,promoting income allocation,improving financial markets system,and maintaining economic cooperation and vitality.
This paper analyzes the characteristics of major middle-income economies in which economic,political and social conditions fail to favor their any further growth,so that they fall into middle-income trap of depression or fluctuation.Argentina and Chile are typical of middle-income traps.Moreover,this paper attempts to provide with experiences for China to advance its economy over the middle-income traps through restructuring reforms,increasing total factor productivity,promoting income allocation,improving financial markets system,and maintaining economic cooperation and vitality.
引文
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[2]Grossmann V.Structural Change,Urban Congestion,and the End of Growth[J].Review of Development Economics,2013,17(2):165-181.
[3]Kumagai S.The Middle-income Trap from Viewpoint of Trade Structures[R].Institute of Developing Economies,Discussion Paper,No.482,2014.
[4]姜文辉.产业升级、技术创新与跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].亚太经济,2016(6).
[5]Hahid Y and Nabeshima K.Can Malaysia Escape the Middleincome Trap?A Strategy for Penang[R].World Bank Development Research Group,Policy Research Working Paper,WPS4971,2009.
[6]Jankowska A,Nagengast A and Perea J R.The Product Space and the Middle-income Trap[R].OECD Development Center,Working Paper,No.311,2012.
[7]Malinen T.Inequality,Savings,and Consumption:A Reassessment of the Relationships in Cointegrated Panels[J].Applied Economics Quarterly,2013,59(3):235-251.
[8]王婉郦,王厚双.分配制度、收入差距与中等收入陷阱的跨越[J].日本问题研究,2017(2).
[9]王晓芳,胡冰.关于中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的思考[J].上海经济研究,2016(10).
[10]王丽莉,文一.中国能跨越中等收入陷阱吗?—基于工业化路径的跨国比较[J].经济评论,2017(3).
[11]沈涛.中国规避“中等收入陷阱”的路径选择[J].统计与决策,2016(19).
[12]Kharas H.The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries[R].OECD Development Centre Working Paper,No.285,2010.
[13]Mason,A.Demographic Dividends:The Past,the Present,and the Future[M].Demographic dividends:The past,the present,and the future.In Population change,labor markets and sustainable growth:Towards a new economic paradigm(pp.75-98).Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
[14]张欢.收入增长的俱乐部效应—论跨越中等收入陷阱的有效途径[J].经济与管理研究,2016(5).
[15]Vandenberg P and Zhuang J.How Can China Avoid the Middle-income Trap[R].Asian Development Bank Reports,2011.
[16]周文,赵果庆,徐波.中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破与政策应对[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017(1).
[17]Rodrik D.Making Room for China in the World Economy[J].The American Economic Review,2010,100(2):89-93.
[18]胡鞍钢.中国跨越中等收入陷阱:基于五大发展理念视角[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(5).
[19]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”:发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013(9).
[20]王茹.阿根廷为何难跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].学习时报,2012(7).
[21]钟坚,杨霁帆,韩晓洁.智利成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”启示[J].开放导报,2015(6).
[22]姚树洁.从技术创新视角看中国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2015(5).
[23]乔俊峰.中国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].现代经济探讨,2013(9).
[24]张平.中等收入陷阱的经验特征、理论解释和政策选择[J].国际经济评论,2015(6).
(1)世界银行网站http://clata.worldbank.org/about/coiintry-classifications/a-short-history发布的高中低收入国家分类标准。
(2)“希腊、韩国、葡萄牙、匈牙利、波兰、智利”六国属于OECD成员国。
(3)数值由世界银行网站数据估算得出。
(4)智利年均经济增长率由世界银行网站数据计算得到。
[2]Grossmann V.Structural Change,Urban Congestion,and the End of Growth[J].Review of Development Economics,2013,17(2):165-181.
[3]Kumagai S.The Middle-income Trap from Viewpoint of Trade Structures[R].Institute of Developing Economies,Discussion Paper,No.482,2014.
[4]姜文辉.产业升级、技术创新与跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].亚太经济,2016(6).
[5]Hahid Y and Nabeshima K.Can Malaysia Escape the Middleincome Trap?A Strategy for Penang[R].World Bank Development Research Group,Policy Research Working Paper,WPS4971,2009.
[6]Jankowska A,Nagengast A and Perea J R.The Product Space and the Middle-income Trap[R].OECD Development Center,Working Paper,No.311,2012.
[7]Malinen T.Inequality,Savings,and Consumption:A Reassessment of the Relationships in Cointegrated Panels[J].Applied Economics Quarterly,2013,59(3):235-251.
[8]王婉郦,王厚双.分配制度、收入差距与中等收入陷阱的跨越[J].日本问题研究,2017(2).
[9]王晓芳,胡冰.关于中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的思考[J].上海经济研究,2016(10).
[10]王丽莉,文一.中国能跨越中等收入陷阱吗?—基于工业化路径的跨国比较[J].经济评论,2017(3).
[11]沈涛.中国规避“中等收入陷阱”的路径选择[J].统计与决策,2016(19).
[12]Kharas H.The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries[R].OECD Development Centre Working Paper,No.285,2010.
[13]Mason,A.Demographic Dividends:The Past,the Present,and the Future[M].Demographic dividends:The past,the present,and the future.In Population change,labor markets and sustainable growth:Towards a new economic paradigm(pp.75-98).Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
[14]张欢.收入增长的俱乐部效应—论跨越中等收入陷阱的有效途径[J].经济与管理研究,2016(5).
[15]Vandenberg P and Zhuang J.How Can China Avoid the Middle-income Trap[R].Asian Development Bank Reports,2011.
[16]周文,赵果庆,徐波.中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的路径突破与政策应对[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017(1).
[17]Rodrik D.Making Room for China in the World Economy[J].The American Economic Review,2010,100(2):89-93.
[18]胡鞍钢.中国跨越中等收入陷阱:基于五大发展理念视角[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016(5).
[19]张德荣.“中等收入陷阱”:发生机理与中国经济增长的阶段性动力[J].经济研究,2013(9).
[20]王茹.阿根廷为何难跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].学习时报,2012(7).
[21]钟坚,杨霁帆,韩晓洁.智利成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”启示[J].开放导报,2015(6).
[22]姚树洁.从技术创新视角看中国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2015(5).
[23]乔俊峰.中国如何跨越“中等收入陷阱”[J].现代经济探讨,2013(9).
[24]张平.中等收入陷阱的经验特征、理论解释和政策选择[J].国际经济评论,2015(6).
(1)世界银行网站http://clata.worldbank.org/about/coiintry-classifications/a-short-history发布的高中低收入国家分类标准。
(2)“希腊、韩国、葡萄牙、匈牙利、波兰、智利”六国属于OECD成员国。
(3)数值由世界银行网站数据估算得出。
(4)智利年均经济增长率由世界银行网站数据计算得到。