风廓线雷达资料在GRAPES-Meso模式中的同化应用研究
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摘要
以未来业务化应用为目标,本文进行了业务数值预报模式GRAPES_Meso(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)中的风廓线雷达资料同化应用研究。基于2015年7月的全国风廓线雷达观测数据,首先建立了面向同化应用的风廓线雷达资料两步质量控制方案。通过对比分析质量控制前后风廓线雷达观测资料集与欧洲中心再分析资料ERA-Interim的差值场特征,论证了质量控制方案的合理性,两步质控后风场误差显著减小,同时观测背景差更接近高斯分布,符合数值同化应用假设。将质量控制后的风廓线雷达资料应用于GRAPES-3DVAR系统,开展有、无风廓线雷达资料同化的对比试验,通过批量试验和台风"莲花"个例分析来探讨风廓线雷达资料同化对数值预报的影响。研究表明:在循环同化过程中加入风廓线雷达资料对数值模式初始场有一定改善,风场、温度场、湿度场的分析误差均有减小,从而使短期降水(0～12 h)的预报技巧得以提高。针对台风暴雨个例分析结果表明,风廓线雷达资料同化能有效地调整台风降水区的动力结构和水汽分布,在模式中形成更有利于对流发展的环境条件,从而更好地预报降水的位置与强度。
Aiming at future operational implementation, the research on assimilation of wind profiling radar(WPR) data into the GRAPES_Meso model(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) is carried out. Based on observational WPR datasets in China during July 2015, a two-step quality control(QC) procedure is developed first. The differences between the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the WPR observational data before and after QC are calculated,respectively. Results show that the wind field errors are largely reduced after QC, and the distributions of the innovations corresponding to observations after QC are closer to a Gaussian distribution. Based on the GRAPES-3 DVAR system, the WPR observations after QC were used in one-month continuous experiments as well as a real-case study to illustrate the influence of WPR observations on GRAPES_Meso model. Results show that the assimilation of WPR data can improve the initial condition of the model. Analysis errors of wind, temperature and humidity field are reduced, and the prediction skill for short-term precipitation(0-12 h) is improved. The impact of assimilating WPR data on the analysis and forecast of typhoon"Linfa"is also investigated in this study. Results show that assimilating WPR data can effectively adjust the dynamic structure and water vapor condition over the typhoon precipitation area, producing a more favorable condition for the development of convective system and improving the forecast skill of precipitation.
Aiming at future operational implementation, the research on assimilation of wind profiling radar(WPR) data into the GRAPES_Meso model(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) is carried out. Based on observational WPR datasets in China during July 2015, a two-step quality control(QC) procedure is developed first. The differences between the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the WPR observational data before and after QC are calculated,respectively. Results show that the wind field errors are largely reduced after QC, and the distributions of the innovations corresponding to observations after QC are closer to a Gaussian distribution. Based on the GRAPES-3 DVAR system, the WPR observations after QC were used in one-month continuous experiments as well as a real-case study to illustrate the influence of WPR observations on GRAPES_Meso model. Results show that the assimilation of WPR data can improve the initial condition of the model. Analysis errors of wind, temperature and humidity field are reduced, and the prediction skill for short-term precipitation(0-12 h) is improved. The impact of assimilating WPR data on the analysis and forecast of typhoon"Linfa"is also investigated in this study. Results show that assimilating WPR data can effectively adjust the dynamic structure and water vapor condition over the typhoon precipitation area, producing a more favorable condition for the development of convective system and improving the forecast skill of precipitation.
引文
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陈德辉,薛纪善,杨学胜,等.2008.GRAPES新一代全球/区域多尺度统一数值预报模式总体设计研究[J].科学通报,53(20):2396-2407.Chen Dehui,Xue Jishan,Yang Xuesheng,et al.2008.New generation of multiscale NWP system(GRAPES):General scientific design[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,53(22):3433-3445
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方平治,赵兵科,鲁小琴,等.2013.华东沿海地带台风风廓线特征的观测个例分析[J].大气科学,37(5):1091-1098.Fang Pingzhi,Zhao Bingke,Lu Xiaoqin,et al.2013.Case studies on the characteristics of the coastal wind profiles of three typhoons landing along East China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(5):1091-1098.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.12104
高祝宇,阮征,魏鸣,等.2016.风廓线雷达数据质量影响因子及处理算法[J].应用气象学报,27(2):148-159.Gao Zhuyu,Ruan Zheng,Wei Ming,et al.2016.Quality factors and processing algorithm for wind profiling radar data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),27(2):148-159.doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160203
郝民,张华,陶士伟,等.2013.变分质量控制在区域GRAPES-3DVAR中的应用研究[J].高原气象,32(1):122-132.Hao Min,Zhang Hua,Tao Shiwei,et al.2013.Application of variational quality control to regional GRAPES-3DVAR[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),32(1):122-132.doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00013
何平,马颖,阮征,等.2010.晴空热对流泡的风廓线雷达探测研究[J].气象学报,68(2):264-269.He Ping,Ma Ying,Ruan Zheng,et al.2010.Study of thermal bubbles in the lower atmosphere based on the data detected using wind profiler radar[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),68(2):264-269.doi:10.11676/qxxb2010.026
Ishihara M,Kato Y,Abo T,et al.2006.Characteristics and performance of the operational wind profiler network of the Japan Meteorological Agency[J].J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,84(6):1085-1096.doi:10.2151/jmsj.84.1085
姜晓曼,袁慧玲,薛明,等.2014.北京“7.21”特大暴雨高分辨率模式分析场及预报分析[J].气象学报,72(2):207-219.Jiang Xiaoman,Yuan Huiling,Xue Ming,et al.2014.Analysis of a torrential rainfall event over Beijing on 21-22 July 2012 based on high resolution model analyses and forecasts[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),72(2):207-219.doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.024
李妙英,杨璐,周志敏,等.2013.风廓线雷达资料在降水数值预报中的应用探讨[J].成都信息工程学院学报,28(3):284-290.Li Miaoying,Yang Lu,Zhou Zhimin,et al.2013.Application research of wind profile radar data in the numerical prediction of rainfall[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology(in Chinese),28(3):284-290.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-1742.2013.03.013
刘瑞,翟国庆,王彰贵,等.2012.FY-2C云迹风资料同化应用对台风预报的影响试验研究[J].大气科学,36(2):350-360.Liu Rui,Zhai Guoqing,Wang Zhanggui,et al.2012.Impact of application of cloud motion wind data from FY-2C satellite on simulation of typhoon cases[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(2):350-360.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11052
刘瑞婷,阮征,魏鸣,等.2016.风的空间不均匀分布对风廓线雷达数据质量影响研究[J].热带气象学报,32(2):229-236.Liu Ruiting,Ruan Zheng,Wei Ming,et al.2016.The analysis of influence on wind measurement by inhomogeneous wind distribution with wind profile radar[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),32(2):229-236.doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2016.02.009
阮征,何平,葛润生.2008.风廓线雷达对大气折射率结构常数的探测研究[J].大气科学,32(1):133-140.Ruan Zheng,He Ping,Ge Runsheng.2008.Determination of refractive index structure constant with wind profile radar data[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),32(1):133-140.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.01.12
Shen Y,Xiong A Y,Wang Y,et al.2010.Performance of highresolution satellite precipitation products over China[J].J.Geophys.Res.,115,D02114,doi:10.1029/2009JD012097
St-James J S,Laroche S.2005.Assimilation of wind profiler data in the Canadian meteorological Centre's analysis systems[J].J.Atmos.Oceanic Technol.,22(8):1181-1194.doi:10.1175/JTECH1765.1
陶士伟,陈晓红,龚建东.2006.L波段探空仪温度资料误差分析[J].气象,32(10):46-51.Tao Shiwei,Chen Xiaohong,Gong Jiandong.2006.Error analyses for temperature of L band radiosonde[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),32(10):46-51.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0526.2006.10.007
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